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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

Looks like Nashville has up'd their totals a bit from earlier.
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Our temps will be borderline at best but we’ll see when the UKMET finishes with the temps. I’m going with the NAM on temps for now.


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It looked like temps were marginal at the onset, but crashed later, per the UKIE. Or, are my eyes deceiving me?
 
NAM 850's are solid when precip rolls into the upstate. Looks like we need to clear 6 degrees of 2m warmth though. NAM has that happening fairly quickly. Snow falling in the 20's towards the end
 
February 1984 is probably the best analog to this event imo and a has a pretty realistic snowfall distribution & amounts in NC, if anything I'd favor a little more in the mountains & less over the piedmont... You can probably throw January 2003 & February 1952 into the mix although the former had too much northwesterly flow & the latter developed a Miller A cyclone in the NE GOM.
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There has been a trend towards more tilt hense the reason we are seeing the big influx of moisture. But we need it quicker than what's being shown currently.

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Yea...speed of the tilt was what i was referring to. Hadnt paid attention to that aspect.
 
Unless I'm reading it wrong, UKMET might be worse than the ICON temp wise. But I might be reading it wrong to be honest as I haven't tried to read it until now.

If it's in Celsius, everyone in the light green on 2M T is in the mid 40s to 50 by my conversion.
 
A lot of folks are biting their nails waiting to see what the Euro has to say. Honestly, the way I see it ..... if it has the same or a better look, I am happy. The high resolution models are about to take the stage now to lead us the rest of the way with this one.
 
Hot damn the ukmet....

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If I'm reading the lovely UKmet right and converting mm to inches conversion thats roughly .35 inches in portions of AL/GA and depending on ratios wouldn't that be 3-5 inches in areas... I'm not looking a temp profile too hard for me to understand the UK
 
A lot of folks are biting their nails waiting to see what the Euro has to say. Honestly, the way I see it ..... if it has the same or a better look, I am happy. The high resolution models are about to take the stage now to lead us the rest of the way with this one.

I'm sure a lot of WFOs are awaiting the Euro to see what they're gonna do.
 
February 1984 is probably the best analog to this event imo and a has a pretty realistic snowfall distribution & amounts in NC, if anything I'd favor a little more in the mountains & less over the piedmont... You can probably throw January 2003 & February 1952 into the mix although the former had too much northwesterly flow & the latter developed a Miller A cyclone in the NE GOM.
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Feb 84 looks kind of like what the UK was showing, and if you combined the GFS and NAM with their sweet spots.
 
CJ says he's been on Vacay in Disneyworld. Says he's back with a vengeance and "an inch possible" in most of the upstate
 
ICON is wrong on temps here. I will eat two dozen bags of crow if RDU reports more than one hour of rain/snow mix at onset. There its on record and I will revisit this post after the event lol.
I LOVE your enthusiasm concerning this but I will have to watch the snow falling to believe it. Icon shows a typical climo hit (.1") for my area which is hard to overcome most of the time. Hope you're right though.
 
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