Pattern Morch

[YetAnotherRDUGuy]

Hmmm. Interesting look here at day 6ish.

As for me, I'll be in Florida Mar 7-13. Whatever potentially falls will be done and melted by the time I fly back. Good luck to all on this board who are in the game. I hope its a legit threat worthy of tracking and warranting it's own potential thread. For all the talk of March storms on here, it's been a minute (as the younger gen often says) since many of us experienced one.

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

00z UKMET had the low too far north cutting across the Carolinas with rain


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[CNCsnwfan1210]

00z Euro was a little further north with the low than the previous run but still pretty much a whiff.


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[LithiaWx]

Hello darkness, my old friend
I've come to talk with you again

 

[LukeBarrette]

Yeah ight. I’ll be in Florida so it’s happening

 

[RBR71]

Richmond jackpot so yeah it's legit
Also 20.3 this morning

 

[SD]

23 this morning. Gotta look back later think this is the coldest match morning in at least 3 years

 

[EmersonGA]

23 this morning. Gotta look back later think this is the coldest match morning in at least 3 years

23.2 here. Pretty darn cold for March.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Bugs taking a hit this morning

W

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Megafrost

I’m just trying to go to work man. Bout to throw some boiling water on it brb

 

[BIG FROSTY]

22.7° chilly this morning.


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[superjames1992]

26 at RDU’s boiling sensor this morning. Quite a weather shock coming back from Puerto Rico late last night.

 

[SD]

Weekend system has enough to be interesting but the concern is that it's way too flat/south

 

[Ross]

This area is extremely fire prone. Unfortunately the housing developments aren't just encroaching but actively being built out into the stands of longleaf pine. Many of purchased with cash and only carry liability policies.

If there's one benefit right now it's that we're not yet in seabreeze season. With the shape of the coastline/inland topography and soils the seabreezes roar inland in Horry and Brunswick counties. It could easily push the fire westward at 30mph if we were a month later.

hate being that guy but this is not accurate- northerlies/northwesterlies cause fires in that area specifically because they pin the seabreeze to the coast and cause a little downsloping from the piedmont (not to mention the source air mass with this wind direction is typically inherently dry)

any seabreeze would cause a marked increase in dews and reduce fire risk

 

[NoSnowATL]

51 this morning, only hitting 70 today. Chilly

 

[KyloG]

I don't know...it could I guess.

 

[LickWx]

I smell a overperforming high today

 

[CumulonimbusIncus]

Definitely a wet snow if it were to occur during the morning through the early afternoon hours. We’ll see if we gain support from other models in the days ahead.


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GFS is crap as far as I'm concerned, outlier here and no support from ensembles/ECMWF/CMC as of Monday's 00Z/06Z suites

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Icon with a gso bullseye

 

[Tsappfrog20]

The icon was close to something next Sunday


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[FallsLake]

26 at RDU’s boiling sensor this morning. Quite a weather shock coming back from Puerto Rico late last night.

That surprised me RDU got that low. It was close to my reading (up 5') at the house.

 

[FallsLake]

The icon was close to something next Sunday


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Yeah, it's showing a CAD signature. Basically, cold pushing in during the event. But the cold is just not cold enough, and/or moves in too late, on the this run.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Welp at least severe is always a option in springtime with the low above our heads

 

[Bigedd09]

Welp at least severe is always a option in springtime with the low above our heads View attachment 171426

Where in the world was this trend when we needed it lol

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

Welp at least severe is always a option in springtime with the low above our heads View attachment 171426

Ended in a phased bomb for the NE


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[SD]

This is going to be an epic giant bust by one of the models for this weekend

 

[Bigedd09]

LOL CMC completely suppressed

 

[LukeBarrette]

Major GFS failure on the way once again.

 

[superjames1992]

Welp at least severe is always a option in springtime with the low above our heads View attachment 171426

Right where we want it before the SE trend kicks in.

 

[Bigedd09]

I mean the 12Z EURO does have some snowfall in the CLT area next weekend

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Seems like a novelty level event isn’t out the question at this point. More than likely would be on the backside as CAA kicks in and catches up to the backend banding. I think the GFS/GEFS are to amped though

 

[rburrel2]

Seems like the boundary layer will be an issue no matter what. Mountains could get mauled though if the wave is strong enough.

 

[GolfishardIknowit70]

18z gfs still continues to have that big system fwiw

 

[SD]

The backside of these stronger systems is always nearly a lock to drive flurries/snow showers well south into Ga/AL

 

[LickWx]

The backside of these stronger systems is always nearly a lock to drive flurries/snow showers well south into Ga/ALView attachment 171443

Look at that line of storms over the ocean, cruise time! @Jimmy Hypocracy fire up the jon boat

 

[KyloG]

The MA can’t screw this up

 

[superjames1992]

The MA can’t screw this up

View attachment 171445

At that rate of trending, I’d be greasing my sled if I lived in Gainesville, FL. If anyone there owns a sled…

 

[Myfrotho704_]

GFS

 

[NCSNOW]

Boy wouldnt that 6-12 be nice in 145 hours.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

The MA can’t screw this up

View attachment 171445

They made fun of us, now it’s time for Karma.