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Miserable March

ATLwxfan said:
Went to edit my last post but saw it had already been edited by our faithful mods! Strong work.

Looks like we may have a shot at something after all per the GFS. Seemed like a third wave of energy snuck in there. Will be interesting to see how this evolves.


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FFC referencing a slight chance in my grid forecast. Surprised to see the “s” word from them this far out.

0F21566E-7697-4F63-B666-119E469C8D05.jpeg
 
The models look absolutely miserable for cold prospects. However, the good news is that that ultimately may be what prevents the Corona virus from hitting too many folks in the SE as viruses typically thrive on cold, dry wx. So, whereas I still strongly prefer a cold March. I'm starting to see the bright side of it not being cold as health is more important.
 
Let me concur although I made it clear well early on. Give me some 60s and 70s and slow down the endless rounds of rains some. It appears we might get the former, the latter...well at least one model type said nah so that's not fun.

To make this more serious, maybe we'll be home free on our home blueberry bushes if we don't go below 27 during the next cold wave.

I know, down deeper in the south, 60s and 70s in my area and up to Atlanta can mean 80s in some occasions down in Savannah, Valdosta, (to reference a poster we've seen occasionally), plus other areas in South Georgia, and heck, with Gainesville, there was one case where it was in the 50s at home because of what seemed to be a persistent CAD but near 90 there and I had experienced, and that sucks, so I do feel some empathy there, especially when I experienced it in one case and had sweat pouring all over me from head to toe (as I had on pants for the 50s or lower at home because we were on the way there).
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Let me concur although I made it clear well early on. Give me some 60s and 70s and slow down the endless rounds of rains some. It appears we might get the former, the latter...well at least one model type said nah so that's not fun.

To make this more serious, maybe we'll be home free on our home blueberry bushes if we don't go below 27 during the next cold wave.

I know, down deeper in the south, 60s and 70s in my area and up to Atlanta can mean 80s in some occasions down in Savannah, Valdosta, (to reference a poster we've seen occasionally), plus other areas in South Georgia, and heck, with Gainesville, there was one case where it was in the 50s at home because of what seemed to be a persistent CAD but near 90 there and I had experienced, and that sucks, so I do feel some empathy there, especially when I experienced it in one case and had sweat pouring all over me from head to toe (as I had on pants for the 50s or lower at home because we were on the way there).
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God I'm sick of this rain. This wet pattern can't last forever, right?
 
Imho I think as far as the upstate goes, we are done for winter weather. It's going to be cold here and there, but in about 3 weeks that's going to be few and far between. It's time to gear up for spring now and thunderstorms
 
RAH continues to mention the possibility of light frozen precip (snow) for this weekend. They had stated previously that it will be very difficult to get a handle on the features (clipper) until a day or so before the event. Basically we need to get within range of the short range models.
 
FallsLake said:
RAH continues to mention the possibility of light frozen precip (snow) for this weekend. They had stated previously that it will be very difficult to get a handle on the features (clipper) until a day or so before the event. Basically we need to get within range of the short range models.
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Yeah, Convective stuff will appear nicely on meso models, on globals they simply can’t show that well
 
Bsud said:
Imho I think as far as the upstate goes, we are done for winter weather. It's going to be cold here and there, but in about 3 weeks that's going to be few and far between. It's time to gear up for spring now and thunderstorms
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I’m not looking forward to the heat. 90s and 100s


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GaWx said:
The models look absolutely miserable for cold prospects. However, the good news is that that ultimately may be what prevents the Corona virus from hitting too many folks in the SE as viruses typically thrive on cold, dry wx. So, whereas I still strongly prefer a cold March. I'm starting to see the bright side of it not being cold as health is more important.
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May save us all from pages of whining ...
 
GaWx said:
That's what I used to think. But now that I've read the link below, I realize that cold and especially dry air itself may be as much as or even more of the main culprit:

https://www.popsci.com/science/article/2013-01/fyi-why-winter-flu-season/

So, bring on the warm and humid!
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It’s true the cold can limit the protective effects of mucous on capturing and clearing harmful bugs. Ok I’m done I promise. Plus I’m a pain management doc and this is out of my wheelhouse.


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FallsLake said:
RAH continues to mention the possibility of light frozen precip (snow) for this weekend. They had stated previously that it will be very difficult to get a handle on the features (clipper) until a day or so before the event. Basically we need to get within range of the short range models.
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You'd think, with the number of events over the years that models didn't get a good handle on until a few days out, we would learn by now. Lol
 
NCSNOW said:
Euro Saturday, showing some Flake potential.
View attachment 36324
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Those soundings over N.C./upstate of SC easily supportive Convective stuff, quite impressive cold pocket aloft owing to very steep lapse rates, perhaps something similar to Feb 16 2013 is possible ? There’s even some weak DCAPE just like that setup which aided in cool pool generation, note those wet bulbs could support snow if you crashed the column 0A073D25-9612-4622-9A7E-32C6D624C5AF.png8673815F-E061-4D26-93E4-3646F0AA89AE.pngFEE705BF-84DA-4829-A168-16652FE8AEB4.png
 
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Back in the early 90's we had a convective thundersnowstorm....it was early March with a lot of sun in the morning and very cold air aloft.....several distinct county sized "storms" formed around lunchtime, it was maybe 40-42 degrees as the storm moved in and you could see the "precip" falling as it moved in, basically a white wall....the edge was rn/sn/graupel mix but once the leading edge was past it was dumping big fat wet flakes the size of golf balls, temps crashed to near freezing.....it even mixed with graupel at the height of the precip.....it quickly covered everything including the roads and a few slushy inches piles up in 30-40 mins....as soon as it was over the sun came out and it was mostly melted in a hr or two....one of the crazier weather experiences I have had.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Those soundings over N.C./upstate of SC easily supportive Convective stuff, quite impressive cold pocket aloft owing to very steep lapse rates, perhaps something similar to Feb 13 2013 is possible ? There’s even some weak DCAPE just like that setup which aided in cool pool generation, note those wet bulbs could support snow if you crashed the column View attachment 36325View attachment 36326View attachment 36327
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This would be a good time of the day as if there is any sunshine to destabilize the atmosphere like we saw in 2013. Obviously this is something that we’re really not going to have any true idea about until we’re in 24-36 hours
 
Downeastnc said:
Back in the early 90's we had a convective thundersnowstorm....it was early March with a lot of sun in the morning and very cold air aloft.....several distinct county sized "storms" formed around lunchtime, it was maybe 40-42 degrees as the storm moved in and you could see the "precip" falling as it moved in, basically a white wall....the edge was rn/sn/graupel mix but once the leading edge was past it was dumping big fat wet flakes the size of golf balls, temps crashed to near freezing.....it even mixed with graupel at the height of the precip.....it quickly covered everything including the roads and a few slushy inches piles up in 30-40 mins....as soon as it was over the sun came out and it was mostly melted in a hr or two....one of the crazier weather experiences I have had.
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I'm personally guessing this is March 8-9 1996? I haven't mapped that particular event yet but the large-scale pattern, temperature, and precipitation data generally seem to fit the description you've outlined here
 
Webberweather53 said:
I'm personally guessing this is March 8-9 1996? I haven't mapped that particular event yet but the large-scale pattern, temperature, and precipitation data generally seem to fit the description you've outlined here
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It could have been that late into the 90's......the thing that really sticks out was how tall and ominous the storm was, it looked very much like a summertime mature thunderstorm when it was 30 miles away....also the snow was limited to the core of the storm and it was maybe a 10 mile wide swath, we just got lucky and got the very middle core of the storm....a few miles either way and there was little to no accumulation at all.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Speaking of snow squalls, check out this one from Aspen, Colorado.

Literally looks like a summer thunderstorm except with snow. 100 yards is the difference between sunny skies and basically near blizzard conditions.

????

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Webberweather53 said:
Speaking of snow squalls, check out this one from Aspen, Colorado.

Literally looks like a summer thunderstorm except with snow. 100 yards is the difference between sunny skies and basically near blizzard conditions.

????

Click to expand...

 
FallsLake said:
RAH continues to mention the possibility of light frozen precip (snow) for this weekend. They had stated previously that it will be very difficult to get a handle on the features (clipper) until a day or so before the event. Basically we need to get within range of the short range models.
Click to expand...

AKQ mentions the clipper, but says moisture is limited, for now.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Let me concur although I made it clear well early on. Give me some 60s and 70s and slow down the endless rounds of rains some. It appears we might get the former, the latter...well at least one model type said nah so that's not fun.

To make this more serious, maybe we'll be home free on our home blueberry bushes if we don't go below 27 during the next cold wave.

I know, down deeper in the south, 60s and 70s in my area and up to Atlanta can mean 80s in some occasions down in Savannah, Valdosta, (to reference a poster we've seen occasionally), plus other areas in South Georgia, and heck, with Gainesville, there was one case where it was in the 50s at home because of what seemed to be a persistent CAD but near 90 there and I had experienced, and that sucks, so I do feel some empathy there, especially when I experienced it in one case and had sweat pouring all over me from head to toe (as I had on pants for the 50s or lower at home because we were on the way there).
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Situations like that are interesting , you get huge gradients . Further east and south you are the warmer . Remember one day I think it was December new bern NC hit 82 and was humid as hell , 76 raleigh . But cold rain and 50s Greensboro. That western Atlantic ridge does some crazy stuff when combined with that warm Gulf Stream , remember water temps early January 20-30 miles off hatteras in the stream were as warm as 25c which is absolutely insane.
 
Hopefully we can see a flake or two this weekend. Judging by Gawx changing the tittle, it looks like this is highly likely the last window of opportunity outside elevation this season. Enjoy the cold late this week into early next week boys. We all know whats on the agenda for the next 7 months
 
Models are trending more towards a second stronger shortwave moving
southeast from Missouri into central Tennessee and northern Alabama
Friday evening into Saturday morning. Though snowfall amounts and
accumulations vary from model to model at this time, it is looking
like we could see a period of light to moderate snowfall shortly
after midnight on Friday into early Saturday morning.
--from huntsville nws
 
Webberweather53 said:
I'm personally guessing this is March 8-9 1996? I haven't mapped that particular event yet but the large-scale pattern, temperature, and precipitation data generally seem to fit the description you've outlined here
Click to expand...

South Carolina and the Low country region had a setup of convective snows and even thundersnows with some producing strong winds in the upper 30s back on Feb 16th 1996. One such storm in the afternoon thumped snow at 38 and accumulated on elevated surfaces with high winds during the initial thump. More like a summer storm with snow ending as light rain as the cells moved away.
 
Ive seen some crazy things like these squalls doing cold weather training back in the days. Kodiak Island, Cascades but the Sierras was the craziest. You could see it coming like a dust storm, it would jump on top of you before you could blink and dump inches an hour. You couldnt see 50 feet in front of you!
 
This is the best gfs ensemble run for my area in a while. Hard not to get excited with 3 different days of possible snowfall starting this Wednesday afternoon/ evening. I’m actually surprised none of my fellow Nashville posters are not posting more about this event this week.
 

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olhausen said:
This is the best gfs ensemble run for my area in a while. Hard not to get excited with 3 different days of possible snowfall starting this Wednesday afternoon/ evening. I’m actually surprised none of my fellow Nashville posters are not posting more about this event this week.
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I’ve been watching it even though I know it will be nothing more than snow showers here lol. You are golden in your location however
 
So Clayton Ga is right at 2,000 ft elevation. I'll be there from Wednesday through Saturday now, is that a good location for snow?
 
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