Broken024
Member
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Miserable March
- Thread starter GaWx
- Start date
Although the 11-15 day period (3/4-8) still is pretty mild on the GEFS/EPS (I'm still hoping for a colder change before that period gets here), I was quite elated by the 0Z GFS/Euro suites, which are significantly colder in the SE 2/29-3/4 vs the runs from 12 hours earlier. Hopefully this will trend even colder. But even if not, we're looking at quite a cold 4.5 day period (2/27-3/2 AM) as well as a very legit wintry precip threat for somewhere in the SE.
How cold does the 0Z GFS have KATL/KSAV for 2/27-3/1, for example? The 4 days average 39/44, which is a whopping 11/12 BN for the period as well as 4/5 below the coldest Jan days' normals of the winter! So, welcome to January!
Also, although no GFS has returned to the very cold March 4-6+ that 3 runs had, I see that the 0Z CMC is stubbornly hanging on to just that idea with very strong western ridging. I mean that model still has the very cold 2/27-3/2 AM but it then has a new Arctic high plunging down 3/4, which would means it has virtually no break in the cold. The CMC has not backed down an iota over the last few days on this idea. I wonder what it keeps seeing and what those 3 GFS runs were seeing in having that strong western ridging. I wish the CMC were a better model and that I could trust it instead of it being a weenie model. But I am hopeful that it is somehow onto something no other current model can see and that we'll see the very cold GFS runs for 3/4-6 return soon as that period is still far enough out for much uncertainty. Note that the current cold snap and the one from earlier in the month that gave the Midwest its coldest of the season were not even showing up til within 7-10 days. We now are in a pattern of getting cold snap after cold snap that don't show up til pretty close in. March 4-6 is still 10-12 days away.
How cold does the 0Z GFS have KATL/KSAV for 2/27-3/1, for example? The 4 days average 39/44, which is a whopping 11/12 BN for the period as well as 4/5 below the coldest Jan days' normals of the winter! So, welcome to January!
Also, although no GFS has returned to the very cold March 4-6+ that 3 runs had, I see that the 0Z CMC is stubbornly hanging on to just that idea with very strong western ridging. I mean that model still has the very cold 2/27-3/2 AM but it then has a new Arctic high plunging down 3/4, which would means it has virtually no break in the cold. The CMC has not backed down an iota over the last few days on this idea. I wonder what it keeps seeing and what those 3 GFS runs were seeing in having that strong western ridging. I wish the CMC were a better model and that I could trust it instead of it being a weenie model. But I am hopeful that it is somehow onto something no other current model can see and that we'll see the very cold GFS runs for 3/4-6 return soon as that period is still far enough out for much uncertainty. Note that the current cold snap and the one from earlier in the month that gave the Midwest its coldest of the season were not even showing up til within 7-10 days. We now are in a pattern of getting cold snap after cold snap that don't show up til pretty close in. March 4-6 is still 10-12 days away.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
0z EPS and GEFS ?
Wow, look how far south the 0.1" mean goes (FL/GA border, a rarity for the mean). Does anyone have the individual members? modernweenie
Meanwhile, here's the 6Z GFS clown. Note that this doesn't include amounts under 0.5". Is the 6Z the new Happy Hour?
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If we could get a storm/event, we would benefit from much colder ground temps (2-3 nights of below freezing temps before storm).
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The GEFS & EPS generally support a storm around day 6-7, if we can get these wavelengths to shorten a bit and have these trough axis shift towards the TN or MS valley with this orientation, we're really gonna have something on our hands here. Verbatim, with this look, we still might be able to sneak something out of it. Still more than enough time to make some synoptic-scale adjustments and get the pattern we want.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The last 3 of 4 weekends (Fri-Sun) have had snow here in Charlotte, wouldn't shock me if we went 4 of 5.
Six Mile Wx
Member
6hr totals just to see the signals and movements
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Six Mile Wx
Member
Wake up weenies
Clem282340
Member
Wow that looks really good what is the mean
Six Mile Wx
Member
Clem282340
Member
Is this from the Tuesday/Wednesday event or the weekend event
Tuesday/Thursday looking more like a dud for anyone in the south east maybe some flurries can be pulled off for GA folks the main threat that is materializing is the one for next weekend for the south east
ajr
Member
Looking upstream, I think these are the three areas to keep a close eye on to see what energy they give off and how they evolve/interact over time:
The jet stream seems to be supportive of the changes we’re seeing... I wonder if that streak over the Atlantic will eventually support a nice surface low
The jet stream seems to be supportive of the changes we’re seeing... I wonder if that streak over the Atlantic will eventually support a nice surface low
ajr
Member
Building on what people have already said about the 6z GEFS, some of those members are coastals (that big storm on e14 is from a different time point):
Ilovesnow28
Member
You don't know that plus there's some models that show something for the western areas of the Southeast
ForsythSnow
Moderator
What a look inside day 10. Not sure about the EPS
