• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Microwave March

Choo choo all aboard the late month wave train
5e2c7e563f315862e0ba72a09d84bfdb.jpg


Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
 
Our disturbance looks a little stronger and slower coming into the Pacific NW Friday morning on the GFS. Likely won't be until Friday night-Saturday morning til it's properly sampled. Oth, the SE Canada/Hudson Bay vortex is digging a bit further south thru 72 HR...
 
This arctic airmass out in front of our storm looks more impressive thru 96 HR. Likely related to the GFS' fast/NE bias w/ northern stream disturbances & PV lobes, already seeing it dig the big SE Canada vortex further SW w/ successive runs the past several days
 
Think Kentucky and Virginia is probably the place to be but if that were to be the ground truth, it's a significant winter storm in Northern NC. A lot of it is ice though.
 
ohhh sheeewww, glad to be out of the bullseye!!! This keeps going and Phil in FL may be in the game!! Seriously though, looked at soundings for 12z and even up here had mixing issues so think the nice colors might be more ice. Warm nose FTW
 
I've been burned and disappointed too many times of late to get sucked into a mostly/all snow event at RDU until it's practically about to happen. WAA in March really sucks and as we saw last Jan & in Feb 2015, warm noses often over perform and climatology is even more favorable for mid level warm noses, hence if we were to see a solution even close to what the GFS is printing out, I would lean more towards sleet and freezing rain until evidence was more than conclusive enough for snow, thus take the snowfall output from the GFS near & south of the axis of heaviest snow and cut it by a third...
 
Webberweather53 said:
I've been burned and disappointed too many times of late to get sucked into a mostly/all snow event at RDU until it's practically about to happen. WAA in March really sucks and as we saw last Jan & in Feb 2015, warm noses often over perform and climatology is even more favorable for mid level warm noses, hence if we were to see a solution even close to what the GFS is printing out, I would lean more towards sleet and freezing rain until evidence was more than conclusive enough for snow, thus take the snowfall output from the GFS near & south of the axis of heaviest snow and cut it by a third...
Click to expand...
Freezing rain is rare in March, I'd even lean towards a cold rain unless your in that sweet spot of heavy snow...

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
Webberweather53 said:
I've been burned and disappointed too many times of late to get sucked into a mostly/all snow event at RDU until it's practically about to happen. WAA in March really sucks and as we saw last Jan & in Feb 2015, warm noses often over perform and climatology is even more favorable for mid level warm noses, hence if we were to see a solution even close to what the GFS is printing out, I would lean more towards sleet and freezing rain until evidence was more than conclusive enough for snow, thus take the snowfall output from the GFS near & south of the axis of heaviest snow and cut it by a third...
Click to expand...

I mean to say "two-thirds"...
 
metwannabe said:
Freezing rain is rare in March, I'd even lean towards a cold rain unless your in that sweet spot of heavy snow...

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Just as recently as 2014, a devastating ZR event struck areas just outside of RDU. It's less common to see sleet and freezing rain this late for sure, but given recent history of winter storms in NC, the near record high SSTs off the SE US coast that would augment and amplify the attendant mid-level warm nose, and the fact that the GFS is already sniffing out CAD this far in advance, I think it's a very legitimate possibility, at least more so than mostly/all snow...
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
I'm reading the MA forum and it's just insane. They're all complaining. You would think they didn't all get 30" last january
Click to expand...
Yeah they complain with 10 in snow, it's not enough for them lol. I'll chase that anyday
 
accu35 said:
Yeah they complain with 10 in snow, it's not enough for them lol. I'll chase that anyday
Click to expand...

Ya know when the last time I saw 10" of snow in my part of NC? Oh yea that's right... NEVER. In a broad sense, they're so annoying tbh, and if they get jipped here on this one, they totally deserve it for all the complaining they're doing.
 
Wasn't going to, but I'm staying up for the Euro.Remeber this is exciting for me because I'm chasing
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top