As we're starting to near the time of the year where large-scale SSTA distributions, and amplitude begin to seriously matter for the upcoming hurricane season, it's probably worth bringing up the fact that although the SSTA configuration and inter annual trends in the AMO have been generally meh of late, the tropical Atlantic is currently the warmest basin relative to average at the moment and the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) (which emerges as the 2nd leading mode (EOF) of SST variability in the Atlantic behind the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is significantly positive w/ stronger than normal trades leading to anomalous upwelling in association w/ the Benguela current off southwestern-Equatorial Africa... In spite of the lower amount of overall tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic, the strong +AMM has become a prominent feature since the AMO crashed in the spring of 2013 (not coincidently immediately following the largest greenland land ice melt year on record in 2012) and has led to an increase in African Easterly Wave (AEW) activity of late, as indicated by the above normal precipitable water anomalies (in blue/purple) over western-central Equatorial Africa and the Sahel. Additionally, stronger AEWs are more likely to survive the trek across the Atlantic and develop closer to landmasses (including the US) further north & west, thus even w/ unfavorable vertical wind shear, underlying SSTAs in the tropical Atlantic, SAL, local hadley cell expansion, etc, this would offset some of the reduction in Atlantic TC activity induced by these aforementioned parameters and a slower thermohaline circulation (THC)...
JISAO Sahel precipitation anomalies (1900-Present). Note that we've just experienced the first 2 year+ string of above normal Sahel precipitation anomalies since the 1960s!! Are we entering into a new multidecadal wet Sahel regime?
SST/10 m winds and precipitation anomalies corresponding to a +AMM
2013-16 Equatorial Atlantic SSTAs (dataset: Reynolds High Resolution Optimum Sea Surface Temperature Analysis Version 2)
2013-16 Equatorial Atlantic Precipitable water anomalies (dataset: NCEP NCAR Reanalysis Version 1). Again note the above normal precipitable water anomalies in blue/purple over western-central Sub-saharan and Equatorial Africa, indicative of a stronger than normal AEW train.
Obviously, the east-central pacific may try to catch up, and if the big far eastern Pacific +SSTAs persist into the summer, that would attempt to squelch activity in the Caribbean, but take this with a massive grain of salt because the oceanic heat content there is not impressive whatsoever and this area of the pacific is very susceptible to intraseasonal and atmospheric white noise forcing...