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Pattern Microwave March

Not gonna "rip him off" and post his maps here - but DT on his Facebook page has gone almost WOOF - worth a read if you're interested. :D
 
whatalife said:
Winter is like the non-compete I'm having to sign at work this week. It'll screw you over at some point.


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You are damn right - I litigate those and they are tough - reading one right now that turns my stomach for the poor guy - he signed it without understanding what it meant. Go see a lawyer in SC to make sure you fully understand the implications --- just friendly caution from yours truly!
 
The early 18Z gfs maps suggest that the colder/southward storm track trend should continue with this run. My guess is that it will be slightly further south and weaker once again.
 
Oh my at the 12z eps... Continued southward shifts seems plausible considering the vortex in SE Canada, I am cautiously optimistic.

Dang!! 3" mean on the eps :weenie:
 
Official forecast this morning for the weekend had highs around 68, NWS now has mid 50's and this little tidbit from the AFD.....
Cooler lows in the 40s with highs in the 50s N to 60s SE may have to be adjusted significantly colder/warmer in later
forecasts.
 
metwannabe said:
Official forecast this morning for the weekend had highs around 68, NWS now has mid 50's and this little tidbit from the AFD.....
Cooler lows in the 40s with highs in the 50s N to 60s SE may have to be adjusted significantly colder/warmer in later
forecasts.
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I am already seeing them in my local forecasts. This weekend into Monday was supposed to be in the 60s, but are now mid to upper 50s.
 
18Z GFS storm about the same as the 12Z GFS track but a tad colder with the furthest south snow a tad further south in far N NC.
 
18z GFS run looks very similar to the 12z, but the storm is a tad stronger this time and once again just a smidge slower. Net result is no change w/ slowing forward progress offsetting the increased amplitude of the disturbance
 
whatalife said:
But you know the sun angle is going to screw you over


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Hell I've received 15 inches the second week of march with the prior two days in the 60s . The ground temp sun angle argument gets overplayed every year


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Storm5 said:
We all know why this winter has sucked , cause someone in Atlanta bought a damn sled a week out back in January . Kiss of death


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It's a helluva sled. Nice product. Seems to work really well on warm asphalt.


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On the large-scale, the entire pattern over North America on the GFS is still amplifying and this trough could arguably dig even more so in future runs as the GFS is finally caving to the Euro's idea yesterday w/ more interaction between the British Columbia vortex and the ULL over the Gulf of Alaska.
 
Btw, in case anyone was interested ( I know Larry and a few others may be) in an extended version of the Climate Prediction Center's (CPC's) Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) tables that's derived from ERSSTv4...
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml
Screen Shot 2017-03-06 at 5.39.16 PM.png

I've calculated the ONI for this dataset going back to 1870.

ERSSTv4 ONI (1870-1949)
Screen Shot 2017-03-06 at 5.44.47 PM.png
Screen Shot 2017-03-06 at 5.45.39 PM.png
Screen Shot 2017-03-06 at 5.46.12 PM.png

I hope to get my Ensemble ONI (which merges data from ~26 different SST and reanalyses datasets) updated sometime over the next week or so, I have to completely recalculate the entire QC w/ the addition of CERA-20C (1901-2010).
 
Webberweather53 said:
Btw, in case anyone was interested ( I know Larry and a few others may be) in an extended version of the Climate Prediction Center's (CPC's) Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) tables that's derived from ERSSTv4...
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml
View attachment 349

I've calculated the ONI for this dataset going back to 1870.

ERSSTv4 ONI (1870-1949)
View attachment 350
View attachment 351
View attachment 352

I hope to get my Ensemble ONI (which merges data from ~26 different SST and reanalyses datasets) updated sometime over the next week or so, I have to completely recalculate the entire QC w/ the addition of CERA-20C (1901-2010).
Click to expand...

IMO this version of the ONI is inherently less reliable, more uncertain and unstable than the ENS ONI, but this data is good strictly for continuity of CPC's ONI w/ ERSSTv4.
 
If you're in the Midlands of SC and see some of the crazy members, the mean (couple members skewing it here), don't get excited. It will take a major change to get much if anything down here.

Not saying it can't happen, but very unlikely. Parts of NC may start getting excited if the runs keep up though.
 
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