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Pattern Microwave March

Webberweather53 said:
I've already posted some of these, but just a reminder of how many great storms we've had near the first of march & how much this winter has completely sucked.
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Good grief, look at how much warmer is the 12Z Euro vs its 0Z run! And to add salt to the wounds, look at how much warmer is the 12Z GEFS 11-15 day period!

Anyone looking forward to the Euro weeklies? I haven't heard them mentioned recently. ;)

ATL has already gotten its 3rd warmest DJF on record and warmest since 1889-90. All it would take for ATL to get THE warmest DJFM on record would be a March that is 4+ warmer than normal. That shouldn't be too difficult the way things have been going and the way things look today, but we'll see. The pro forecast that I follow and which has done very well this winter has ATL at +4 for Mar 1-13.

Anyone want to take bets on how much colder next winter will be compared to this one? Could it be a record cold drop? If we get a weak to moderate Nino, I wouldn't bet the farm against this possibility.
 
GaWx said:
Good grief, look at how much warmer is the 12Z Euro vs its 0Z run! And to add salt to the wounds, look at how much warmer is the 12Z GEFS 11-15 day period!

Anyone looking forward to the Euro weeklies? I haven't heard them mentioned recently. ;)

ATL has already gotten its 3rd warmest DJF on record and warmest since 1889-90. All it would take for ATL to get THE warmest DJFM on record would be a March that is 4+ warmer than normal. That shouldn't be too difficult the way things have been going and the way things look today, but we'll see. The pro forecast that I follow and which has done very well this winter has ATL at +4 for Mar 1-13.

Anyone want to take bets on how much colder next winter will be compared to this one? Could it be a record cold drop? If we get a weak to moderate Nino, I wouldn't bet the farm against this possibility.
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You're preaching to the choir (in a good way lest my message be mistaken as otherwise)! ;)
 
GaWx said:
Good grief, look at how much warmer is the 12Z Euro vs its 0Z run! And to add salt to the wounds, look at how much warmer is the 12Z GEFS 11-15 day period!

Anyone looking forward to the Euro weeklies? I haven't heard them mentioned recently. ;)

ATL has already gotten its 3rd warmest DJF on record and warmest since 1889-90. All it would take for ATL to get THE warmest DJFM on record would be a March that is 4+ warmer than normal. That shouldn't be too difficult the way things have been going and the way things look today, but we'll see. The pro forecast that I follow and which has done very well this winter has ATL at +4 for Mar 1-13.

Anyone want to take bets on how much colder next winter will be compared to this one? Could it be a record cold drop? If we get a weak to moderate Nino, I wouldn't bet the farm against this possibility.
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Yeah! It wouldn't be surprising at all given how warm we've been this year.


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whatalife said:
Just block him. It'll ease your pain but it might make you dumber


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I'm trying to determine if the implication is I'm already dumb??? Lol... jk
You know seeing as how things are looking warmer as we get closer in time, I say lets go all out and try to break all kinds of warm weather records for DJFM and maybe if next year is just normal it will feel like the arctic to us :confused:
 
GaWx said:
Good grief, look at how much warmer is the 12Z Euro vs its 0Z run! And to add salt to the wounds, look at how much warmer is the 12Z GEFS 11-15 day period!

Anyone looking forward to the Euro weeklies? I haven't heard them mentioned recently. ;)

ATL has already gotten its 3rd warmest DJF on record and warmest since 1889-90. All it would take for ATL to get THE warmest DJFM on record would be a March that is 4+ warmer than normal. That shouldn't be too difficult the way things have been going and the way things look today, but we'll see. The pro forecast that I follow and which has done very well this winter has ATL at +4 for Mar 1-13.

Anyone want to take bets on how much colder next winter will be compared to this one? Could it be a record cold drop? If we get a weak to moderate Nino, I wouldn't bet the farm against this possibility.
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That's certainly possible, and if we get an easterly QBO, weak-moderate, maybe even low end strong event we'd be in business, however I am a little concerned about the relatively high energetic electron precipitation (EEP) following the most recent last solar max. EEP lags solar irradiance peak by several years and increases in EEP lead to the production of NOx that accumulates and descends into the polar stratosphere. NOx significantly impacts the chemistry of the mid-upper atmosphere by destroying ozone, which also has significant effects on the stratosphere's overall temperature structure. Ultimately, higher EEP leads to a stronger polar vortex and tendency for a +AO/NAO... It may be a few more years before EEP begins to quiet down again relatively speaking... :/
 
metwannabe said:
I'm trying to determine if the implication is I'm already dumb??? Lol... jk
You know seeing as how things are looking warmer as we get closer in time, I say lets go all out and try to break all kinds of warm weather records for DJFM and maybe if next year is just normal it will feel like the arctic to us :confused:
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That's the spirit! You hit 30 days of a 100° in summer and that 31st day is 90° and it feels like winter is on your doorstep. LOL!


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WeatherWatch said:
What does NOx mean and QBO? Isn't the QBO an oscillation?
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I believe that is nitrogen oxides (NOx) and yes the Quasi Biennial Oscillation but trust me that's the extent of my knowledge, just wanted whatalife up there to know that Webber has made me smarter ;)
 
metwannabe said:
I believe that is nitrogen oxides (NOx) and yes the Quasi Biennial Oscillation but trust me that's the extent of my knowledge, just wanted whatalife up there to know that Webber has made me smarter ;)
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How do you get to be a Mod on this forum and not have more breathtaking knowledge about (NOx) and (QBO). I guess Webber will have to dumb it down a little more the next time class is in session


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A question to Webber, or anyone can answer this. So, a higher accumulation of NOx eventually decents to the polar stratosphere and weakens the PV, leading to warmer than normal PV? What drives the EEP and makes the electrons stronger? Is it solar flares? Basically, when there is an increase of EEP there will also be an increase of NOx that eventually decents to the polar stratosphere?
 
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