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Pattern Microwave March

tennessee storm said:
the euro has had a pretty bad year lately... to be honest... it needs to be sued.... anybody know where I can get a good attorney?... lol
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Yes, but not as bad as the GFS due to its even worse cold bias. But yes, the Euro has been bad. Look at how it suddenly got quite cold in the SE in the 6-10 yesterday at 12Z after a mild run prior to it. It then warmed overall in today's 0Z with the only real cold following a storm moving up to the NE. I'd love to see the cold come back like it had on yesterday's 12Z but I wouldn't hold my breath.

Meanwhile in the lol category, the GFS retains its common cold as it has a cold 11-15 on the 6Z, too.
 
pcbjr said:
I see what you are saying - but - and this is a very sincere question (not sarcastic or rhetorical in any way) - What would be the source of blocking? The NAO is forecasted to go + and I am not seeing any sustained 50/50 low. What am I missing? Thanks! Phil
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It's more like a west based block, won't show up entirely on standard -NAO teleconnection graphs

499145d6d1c683d8bddd0f4d853b7af3.jpg



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Webberweather53 said:
Just to remind you much this winter sucked (yet again), check out these back-to-back beauties on this date in March 1912.
View attachment 311

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Webb - You need to post some of those for North FL - although you may have to study tree rings from the last ice age 10,000 years ago to compose a map or two like those ... LOL

Interesting though - we do get some occasionally, especially up this far north.

Here's some info just for kicks:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snow_in_Florida
 
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GaWx said:
Yes, but not as bad as the GFS due to its even worse cold bias. But yes, the Euro has been bad. Look at how it suddenly got quite cold in the SE in the 6-10 yesterday at 12Z after a mild run prior to it. It then warmed overall in today's 0Z with the only real cold following a storm moving up to the NE. I'd love to see the cold come back like it had on yesterday's 12Z but I wouldn't hold my breath.

Meanwhile in the lol category, the GFS retains its common cold as it has a cold 11-15 on the 6Z, too.
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Yep, keeps the same look as 6Z. The Euro should be fun to watch if it does what it did lat couple of runs.
 
The euro finally joins the GFS/HWRF in blowing up Enawo into a category 4-5 hurricane in a little over 48 hours. This would be a huge disaster for northern Madagascar.
ecmwf_mslpa_swio_10.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Something worth keeping in the back of your mind... The cool 2m temperature bias is not an issue that has exclusively affected the GFS this winter.
View attachment 320
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Webberweather53 said:
Something worth keeping in the back of your mind... The cool 2m temperature bias is not an issue that has exclusively affected the GFS this winter.
View attachment 320
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Indeed, and the EPS would show something similar though the map for day 10's GFS/GEFS cold bias is quite a bit worse than this! Is this horrible cold bias this winter being caused by the excessive Indonesian convection? If so, why can't models handle it? Long ago pcbjr mentioned the Pacific.

These cold biases start at hour 6 and grow every 6 hours.

By the way, the 12Z Euro is back to being very warm in the 6-10 lol.

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GaWx said:
Indeed, and the EPS would show something similar though the map for day 10's GFS/GEFS cold bias is quite a bit worse than this! Is this horrible cold bias this winter being caused by the excessive Indonesian convection? If so, why can't models handle it?

By the way, the 12Z Euro is back to being very warm in the 6-10 lol.
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I'm blaming it on the Russians ----------- just being sarcastic (but not to you!) :p
 
For once I would like to see a hot bias and be surprised by cold. Or how about they remove the bias script altogether.
 
Roswellian said:
how about they remove the bias script altogether
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my entire being was just summed up in one short idiom (way outside of weather) - thanks! been looking for the phrase for years! thanks!!!!! it goes into the book of "keeps"!
 
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Ok, good news for the GFS 11-15: its cold has been cured for now as it got rid of its 11-15 day cold. I wonder if the Good Doctor aka the Euro had a hand in this treatment
 
I haven't really been following things this season..how have the ski resorts in NC/TN been so far this year?
 
MBell said:
I haven't really been following things this season..how have the ski resorts in NC/TN been so far this year?
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You might want to go to the Sierra Nevada mountains for skiing. I heard a ski resort will stay open till summer.

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Even the cold biased main models all look like a microwave much of the next 10 days.
 
GaWx said:
Regarding that brilliant pro met who I mentioned as having done so well this winter by significantly warming the model consensus as a result of excessive Indonesian convection, he was as I said still going a little warmer than normal for the SE US for 3/6-10, a period when the models had been quite cold until the not as cold 12Z/18Z consensus today.

Here is what he has for KATL maxes and mins as of yesterday's forecast in the face of quite cold models:

3/6: 63/47
3/7: 66/46
3/8: 62/42
3/9: 63/43
3/10: 67/47

These are all near to a little warmer than normal, nothing like the cold models have! I mean sone of the runs have had hard freezes there. His coldest is 42 or some 15-20 warmer than a good number of the recent GFS runs! That takes both guts and someone very much in tune with the cold model biases. I plan to post again about this near 3/10 to see how well he verifies.
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See the quoted post from 8 days ago showing a mild forecast for KATL for 3/6-10 even when models had been very cold. If anything, even this mild forecast is looking to verify too cool! Example: the 3/7 low is now forecast to be in the mid 50's or about 10 degrees warmer than the 46 forecasted 8 days ago!


3/6: 63/47
3/7: 66/46
3/8: 62/42
3/9: 63/43
3/10: 67/47
 
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pcbjr said:
Because it's Lent now and we have to atone ... LOL
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Atone? Atone? I've been good. Occasionally real good :) I've been good all my life, with some exceptions...like the time I ....but I digress.....I've live thru sleetless winters....I've live thru snowless winters...over and over...and still I've been somewhat good. But now But Now, I'm having to live thru winterless winters. I haven't been on a good sled ride since 05! And I've been better than some, for some of the time...When will it End????? Summer hates me! Spring and fall are a mashup of something not quite summer, and now winter has disappeared....And I've been Good on rare occasions..Why me!!! Whyyyy..whyyyy
Shoot... I thought I'd feel better, but I don't.....
 
dsaur said:
Atone? Atone? I've been good. Occasionally real good :) I've been good all my life, with some exceptions...like the time I ....but I digress.....I've live thru sleetless winters....I've live thru snowless winters...over and over...and still I've been somewhat good. But now But Now, I'm having to live thru winterless winters. I haven't been on a good sled ride since 05! And I've been better than some, for some of the time...When will it End????? Summer hates me! Spring and fall are a mashup of something not quite summer, and now winter has disappeared....And I've been Good on rare occasions..Why me!!! Whyyyy..whyyyy
Shoot... I thought I'd feel better, but I don't.....
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Paging Jon - We have someone in the store that needs help here ... LOL ;)
 
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system late next weekend needs to be watched for a severe threat for the upper south midsouth region... especially... if todays 12zgfs is correct... nice negative tilted broad based trough moving out of the central plains... nice jet streak to boot...
 
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The 12Z Doc has a major SN 3/12 in NC. Even though it may be fun to see especially for NC folks, take it with a humongous grain as no other model has anything close to this and even the Doc, itself, has been flipping wildly from one run to the next in addition to being cold biased overall. Remember that this is 7 days out, which makes the chances of this verifying closely on a wildly volatile model with a solid cold bias low at best. I lean toward the Euro reverting right back to warmer tonight. We'll see.

Even this colder run is not cold overall in the 6-10 day period for most of the SE outside of much of NC.
 
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GaWx said:
The 12Z Doc has a major SN 3/12 in NC. Even though it may be fun to see especially for NC folks, take it with a humongous grain as no other model has anything close to this and even the Doc, itself, has been flipping wildly from one run to the next in addition to being cold biased overall. Remember that this is 7 days out, which makes the chances of this verifying closely on a wildly volatile model with a solid cold bias low at best. I lean toward the Euro reverting right back to warmer tonight. We'll see.
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I say it keeps it tonight, and reverts back tomorrow afternoon, but it is interesting to see it flipping around. Doubt the snow will happen though.
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z Doc has a major SN 3/12 in NC. Even though it may be fun to see especially for NC folks, take it with a humongous grain as no other model has anything close to this and even the Doc, itself, has been flipping wildly from one run to the next in addition to being cold biased overall. Remember that this is 7 days out, which makes the chances of this verifying closely on a wildly volatile model with a solid cold bias low at best. I lean toward the Euro reverting right back to warmer tonight. We'll see.

Even this colder run is not cold overall in the 6-10 day period for most of the SE outside of much of NC.
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What is "cold"; what is "snow"? o_O
 
pcbjr said:
What is "cold"; what is "snow"? o_O
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"Cold" is the beautiful radiational cooling generated 36 low that Gainesville had the pleasure of experiencing yesterday morning. Man, y'all are good.
 
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