WeatherWatch
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Those eyes in those cyclones are a beauty.
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Pattern Microwave March
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Those eyes in those cyclones are a beauty.
When are we going to go back to a warm pattern ? I don't have any 70's in the forecast for the next 10 days ! What's going on ?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
olhausen
Member
By Monday I'm forecasted to be at 66 and Tuesday 67 which is over 10 degrees above my average.
I'm forecast to be several degrees above average next week but i'm used to being like 10-20 above average, so it's weird only being a few degrees above average. Also, we may have 3 freezes in a row the next 3 nights. I can't remember the last time that happened. I wonder if March has any chance of being colder than Feb ?
pcbjr
Member
Dadgum it Webb! You got it posted before I got out of my meeting! Good catch here! Phil
pcbjr
Member
Following up on some of the foregoing, the stars are not aligned in the right direction for sustained (or much) March cold (but given this winter, when have they been aligned right?).
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ok you guys got me going out to tropical tidbits. been doing it about a week or so, and they really should not be able to get away with what they show on hour gfs 384. now i know why some people are so angry. ;-)
pcbjr
Member
Keep it at about 240 or so and you'll be fine!
Tropical Tidbits and Pivotal are two great resources - so long as you stay within the truncation realm!
I thought truncation was at 192 for the GFS?Keep it at about 240 or so and you'll be fine!
Tropical Tidbits and Pivotal are two great resources - so long as you stay within the truncation realm!
pcbjr
Member
Depends on your point of view IMHO - but 240 is the outside. After that it is run at lower resolution.
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Jon
Member
It used to be 2 years ago but with the T1534 GFS upgrade in 2015 the higher resolution was extended from 8 days (192hr) to 10 days(240hr). So when I say truncation personally I'm talking about 241hr+ because obviously 13km to 35km is a huge res drop and it's very noticeable on the output if you loop it on tropicaltidbits
- Increase horizontal resolution of the first segment of the
forecast from Eulerian T574 (~27 km) to Semi-Lagrangian
T1534 (~13 km), and extend the length of forecast from
192 hours to 240 hours
- Increase horizontal resolution of the second segment of
the forecast from Eulerian T192 (~84 km) to semi-Lagrangian
T574 (~35 km), and set forecast time from 240 hours to 384
hours
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/model_changes.html
pcbjr
Member
WeatherWatch
Member
Interesting look on the 12z EPS during the 14th/15th, the system is more of a Miller A track rather than a Miller B track. I can see that the GFS OP has been trying to lean toward the EPS on each of it's runs lately for that time period.
Jon
Member
Do you mean the EPS control? I'm not seeing anything on the means hinting towards a miller A snowstorm.
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Jon
Member
Normal 18z GFS ensemble:
Same run, Bias corrected:
Yikes.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Same run, Bias corrected:
Yikes.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
pcbjr
Member
WeatherWatch
Member
Yes, I meant the EPS control. It did have that system on a Miller B track on it's 0z run. The 12z EPS control does actually have snow for northern parts of NC on the 15th but as we know, that will all change. You know what's also interesting, the Farmers Almanac is saying there will be snow inland during March, 18th/19th for GA and the Carolina's.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Holy crap. Invest to category 4 hurricane landfall in northern Madagascar in less than 4 days. Damn...
whatalife
Moderator
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I wouldn't be surprised if it was overdoing it however. The Euro loved to over exaggerate pressures on storms last year from what I could remember, but I could be wrong.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I'm less doubtful given that it's only 72-96 HR out, the Euro has actually been trending significantly upward w/ 95S's intensity, and the HWRF and GFS are considerably more aggressive...
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It's crazy how similar this tornado a few days ago was to 1925's tri-state tornado...
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Crazy to think the exact same areas affected by this tornado on Tue night are getting accumulating snow right now. Don't you just love March...
Do yourself a favor and don't even look at the Control Run. It changes so much from run to run it's literally like flipping a coin.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Tropical Cyclone Enawo has formed in the southwestern Indian Ocean and Meteo France expects this storm to become a major hurricane in less than 3 days as it comes precariously close to Madagascar.
The model differences at day 10...lol
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Something to keep in the back of your mind this upcoming hurricane season... The microphysics within the GFS often result in over-zealous and unrealistic forecasts of strong TCs... The model usually has a better handle on weak-moderate TCs
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Yeah, I remember the GFS had Matthew getting down below 900 several times, which never happened. Pressure is a really difficult thing to predict is what I got out of that storm. The Euro is likely going to be closer though.
pcbjr
Member
Hope "springs" eternal (pun intended)
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Let me guess, a 10 day snowstorm or super cold outbreak!? It's finally caught whatever sickness the GFS has had!
Rain with 850's at -6 degrees Celsius. The epitome of our winter. Can't catch a break.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Although overdone, the GFS was the only global model that correctly and consistently predicted Matthew's prolonged period of RI in the extreme southern Caribbean...
pcbjr
Member
That would be about 4º to 6º above freezing at the surface - can't win for losing this year ...
WeatherWatch
Member
I just looked at it, rain to snow, surface temps. are chilly, maybe a rain/snow mix as the colder air filters in. I'd rather take that than a lousy warm nose, ruining the snow chances.
pcbjr
Member
What height and what hour has you interested - I'm on a conference call and can look but can't "search" ....
What height and what hour has you interested - I'm on a conference call and can look but can't "search" ....
The run is MUCH colder than the prior one for the E US overall for 3/9-12. I'm not talking about a storm.
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
So as the GFS backs way off on the cold (although I haven't looked at it closely lately), the Euro leaps on board.
K.
I remember watching from afar with Matthew. It looked like it wasn't going to affect the East Coast much but suddenly started trending toward doing just that on Monday before the hurricane came on that weekend. The reason I remember it well is because I traveled to one of the areas that was hit pretty hard late in the spring (St. Augustine, FL) because of the football games that were delayed due to it, and because I remember watching a football game that was an absolute mess due to the downpour.
K.
I remember watching from afar with Matthew. It looked like it wasn't going to affect the East Coast much but suddenly started trending toward doing just that on Monday before the hurricane came on that weekend. The reason I remember it well is because I traveled to one of the areas that was hit pretty hard late in the spring (St. Augustine, FL) because of the football games that were delayed due to it, and because I remember watching a football game that was an absolute mess due to the downpour.