• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Microwave March

Storm5 said:
Yummy
30fa7301e86d45baf66555ac0a692a5b.jpg


Just give me a little taller ridge out west and I'll roll the dice
71d796da45393f198f024f7357477cf3.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

96458f220f1ade8c88c3c5eb84998e75.jpg


Lets make winter weather in the SE great again.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
ForsythSnow said:
Lol, you better not jinx us again by doing that, you will give yourself rain for the next 5 winters if you do.

Or it will go the other way, and flatten out and send everything north. It is interesting to see this pattern this late still, and if there is a wintry event involved, that too would be interesting to watch.
Click to expand...
sort of was my point - most models show a very zonal flow going forward after 280 or so ... :(
 
On this date in 1914 a massive snowstorm crushed the carolinas, dumping a foot or more of snow from the Midlands of SC through NE SC into the sandhills and south-central coastal plain and far southern piedmont of NC.
Society Hill was the big winner w/ 18" of snow, until February 1973, this was the benchmark storm in many of these aforementioned areas for the 20th century (yea haven't forgotten about Feb 1899).
February 24-26 1914 NC Snowmap.png



Crazy as it seems, at least 3 more winter storms would hit NC after this storm in mid-late March, and another big dog hit the state earlier in the month of February. 1913-14 was an awesome winter...
 
  • Like
Reactions: IWC
For another run on the GFS, it's pretty cold around the similar dates, especially for March. On the 7th it gets cold and it stays cold through the 11th. Not super cold but multiple freezes and well below normal temps.
 
For a few days the pacific gets muted on this run, but it kick starts again late on the 11th into the 12th.
 
So, what is causing all this unseasonably warm air besides the SER/eastern ridge, +NAOs, -PNAs, +EPOs so forth, so forth? I'm thinking that each time the sun is at a solar minimum, winters will be colder and with above normal snowfall. With maximums, the winters are getting worse with unseasonably warm air with below normal snowfall. Solar activity does effect the weather patterns here on Earth. The La Nina was the other driver of the warm winter too of course but I wasn't expecting to have a winter like this.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
 
After 3/3 that was a cold gfs run. Has the ridge axis out west too far east to generate anything and it tucks the energy well SW

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
 
SD said:
After 3/3 that was a cold gfs run. Has the ridge axis out west too far east to generate anything and it tucks the energy well SW

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Not buying it yet, but it's throwing 3 nights of 34º way down here - past truncation (but it beats the daylights out of the other way around - especially since I just spent two hours on my roof cleaning gutters and cool would have be nice - will be doing that chore again in about 3 weeks once the live oaks quit shedding - so moving forward here's hoping for some cool for me, and for everyone :cool: - LOL)

Edit - that's 3 GFS runs with low 30's down here - latching on to something? Gotta study ....
 
Last edited:
SnowHusky said:
So, what is causing all this unseasonably warm air besides the SER/eastern ridge, +NAOs, -PNAs, +EPOs so forth, so forth? I'm thinking that each time the sun is at a solar minimum, winters will be colder and with above normal snowfall. With maximums, the winters are getting worse with unseasonably warm air with below normal snowfall. Solar activity does effect the weather patterns here on Earth. The La Nina was the other driver of the warm winter too of course but I wasn't expecting to have a winter like this.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

No. There's no simple quasi-linear correlation amongst sensible weather here and solar activity. The sun's influence on our weather is elusive at best and the relationships are several orders of magnitude more complex/complicated than the various "terrestrially isolated" phenomena many study here on earth.
 
SD said:
After 3/3 that was a cold gfs run. Has the ridge axis out west too far east to generate anything and it tucks the energy well SW

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Those freezes will zap all the plants for sure. It does look quite cold. I counted a total of 7 freezes, 5 in a row for most of the southeast, 2 not so much. Euro looks different at that time frame again, but has the ridge in the west.
 
Webberweather53 said:
No. There's no simple quasi-linear correlation amongst sensible weather here and solar activity. The sun's influence on our weather is elusive at best and the relationships are several orders of magnitude more complex/complicated than the various "terrestrially isolated" phenomena many study here on earth.
Click to expand...
For one - so looking forward to your interview this week (and thanks for the info today - will be studying!) - Phil
 
Webberweather53 said:
No. There's no simple quasi-linear correlation amongst sensible weather here and solar activity. The sun's influence on our weather is elusive at best and the relationships are several orders of magnitude more complex/complicated than the various "terrestrially isolated" phenomena many study here on earth.
Click to expand...
My theory is that winters will become colder and colder with above normal snowfall during minimums and with maximums, winters will be like this winter. It does seem like during minimums, an El Nino takes place, and when there is a maximum, a La Nina takes place. According to my study, the sun was trending back to a maximum since after the winter of 2010. The solar cycle was back at it's peak of maximum since 2015. The next lowest solar minimum will be in 2022-2023 based from my study.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
 
SnowHusky said:
My theory is that winters will become colder and colder with above normal snowfall during minimums and with maximums, winters will be like this winter. It does seem like during minimums, an El Nino takes place, and when there is a maximum, a La Nina takes place. According to my study, the sun was trending back to a maximum since after the winter of 2010. The solar cycle was back at it's peak of maximum since 2015. The next lowest solar minimum will be in 2022-2023 based from my study.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
are we in a maximum this winter?
 
pcbjr said:
are we in a maximum this winter?
Click to expand...
Yes, from my study, this winter, the sun was at it's peak maximum and I think that's one of the reasons why it was a warm winter. Solar activity isn't the only driver of weather of course.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
 
SnowHusky said:
My theory is that winters will become colder and colder with above normal snowfall during minimums and with maximums, winters will be like this winter. It does seem like during minimums, an El Nino takes place, and when there is a maximum, a La Nina takes place. According to my study, the sun was trending back to a maximum since after the winter of 2010. The solar cycle was back at it's peak of maximum since 2015. The next lowest solar minimum will be in 2022-2023 based from my study.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Ugh... I seriously think you don't understand what an actual scientific study is. Some questions that should immediately come to your mind and you need to ask yourself before you call this a "study"...
What was the motivation of the study?
What were you trying to accomplish?
Did you publish it in a journal?
What were the specific numerical and qualitative results?
What dataset(s) did you use?
What were the resolutions and temporal ranges of the data you used?
What assumptions did you make?
What was your methodology?
What is the physical mechanism(s) that link these phenomena?
To what extent (if at all) are your conclusions significant?
What were the uncertainties?
How does your work compare against previous research?
What were their conclusions?

There's a lot more to this than solar activity and I don't think you really understand how stochastic, non-linear, multi-faceted, and complex the relationships are (nor does anyone yet tbh) or how to represent them (if they exist significantly). Yes, since the 1950s ENSO has been tied to specific phases of the solar cycle, however this relationship only holds for the past 60 years, it disintegrates in the early 20th century, but why? Your theory has to account for that, or what happens during exceptionally low activity? You have to show this...
I hope you also realize somewhat reliable instrumental records only go back to the mid 19th century, and completely miss the Dalton and Maunder minimums, so at that point you have to rely on proxy reconstructions, but they're riddled with far more uncertainty than actual observations because they assume ENSO impacts were the same now as they were centuries ago, which is true to an extent, but there's an appreciable amount of inter-event variability and even moderate-strong events can go practically undetected. If you actually have a legitimate theory" gather data, perform analysis on the data, write a paper on it and publish in a reputable journal... Feels like I'm beating a dead horse but I'll say it again, there really is no "direct", linear relationship between solar activity and ENSO. The connections are a lot more complicated than you're making them out to be and can be modified &/or completely masked by other forcing(s). You also have to understand these host of other forcings and acknowledge others you don't understand or have detected (yet), understand their evolution, relative magnitude, persistence, and temporal scales. Please go read some literature on this topic before making more claims like these...
 
Dark star crashes, pouring its light into ashes.
Reason tatters, the forces tear loose from the axis.
Searchlight casting for faults in the clouds of delusion.
Shall we go, you and I while we can

image.jpg
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top