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Pattern Microwave March

ForsythSnow said:
Definitely more than places out west and up in Illinois.
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The fact that we can have probably our warmest winter on record and still get several inches of snow makes me feel good. Now I won't feel so bad when they are predicting a warm winter in the future.
 
Lent starts tomorrow - thinking about giving up late winter hopes ...

Although come to think of it, the 40 days for that fast have already passed :rolleyes:
 
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Storm5 said:
No but you an overpriced sled from Costco hahah . At least your ready for next year !


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At this point give me a month of BN temps and I'll take my sled down my concrete driveway.

I learned a hard lesson. Let no man make the mistakes I've made.


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Can't say I really buy it but the cold's back on the long range lately.

The frost/freeze threat I do buy is on this weekend but it's going to be wait and see if there's another. For all we know it's going to be in the 60s in a couple runs.
 
ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_11.png
gfs_z500_mslp_us_40.png
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I think what we didn't get with winter storms we are going to make up with severe storms this spring. Have a feeling it's going to be very active here this year with severe weather.
 
I can't believe we're supposed to be so close to 90 today. Well actually I can, winter never existed,
 
Brick Tamland said:
I think what we didn't get with winter storms we are going to make up with severe storms this spring. Have a feeling it's going to be very active here this year with severe weather.
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1) Main dynamics head too far NW. Projected outcome: Broken line of showers
2) Morning showers hinder destabilization. Projected outcome: Showers
3) Front moves through at 3:00 AM (bad diurnal timing). Projected outcome: Broken line of showers
4) Moisture transport interrupted by Gulf storms. Projected outcome: Dry
5) Weak SBCAPE due to low dew point recovery. Projected outcome: Dry
6) Stronger cap than forecast. Projected outcome: Dry
7) Wedging and drizzle hinders heating and destabilization. Projected outcome: Drizzle
8) Storms diminish as they outrun the best dynamics. Projected outcome: Broken line of showers or drizzle
9) Downsloping dries out the lower levels. Projected outcome: Dry
10) Weak convection earlier in the day overturns the atmosphere...further destabilization too slow to occur. Projected outcome: Showers

That about covers the spring convection forecast.
 
Rain Cold said:
1) Main dynamics head too far NW. Projected outcome: Broken line of showers
2) Morning showers hinder destabilization. Projected outcome: Showers
3) Front moves through at 3:00 AM (bad diurnal timing). Projected outcome: Broken line of showers
4) Moisture transport interrupted by Gulf storms. Projected outcome: Dry
5) Weak SBCAPE due to low dew point recovery. Projected outcome: Dry
6) Stronger cap than forecast. Projected outcome: Dry
7) Wedging and drizzle hinders heating and destabilization. Projected outcome: Drizzle
8) Storms diminish as they outrun the best dynamics. Projected outcome: Broken line of showers or drizzle
9) Downsloping dries out the lower levels. Projected outcome: Dry
10) Weak convection earlier in the day overturns the atmosphere...further destabilization too slow to occur. Projected outcome: Showers

That about covers the spring convection forecast.
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CR - You forgot #11) - No spring snow. Projected outcome: o_O. LOL ...
 
Rain Cold said:
1) Main dynamics head too far NW. Projected outcome: Broken line of showers
2) Morning showers hinder destabilization. Projected outcome: Showers
3) Front moves through at 3:00 AM (bad diurnal timing). Projected outcome: Broken line of showers
4) Moisture transport interrupted by Gulf storms. Projected outcome: Dry
5) Weak SBCAPE due to low dew point recovery. Projected outcome: Dry
6) Stronger cap than forecast. Projected outcome: Dry
7) Wedging and drizzle hinders heating and destabilization. Projected outcome: Drizzle
8) Storms diminish as they outrun the best dynamics. Projected outcome: Broken line of showers or drizzle
9) Downsloping dries out the lower levels. Projected outcome: Dry
10) Weak convection earlier in the day overturns the atmosphere...further destabilization too slow to occur. Projected outcome: Showers

That about covers the spring convection forecast.
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Are you always this cheerful in the morning? ;)
 
With all of its cold bias I wonder how the GFS would of been if we actually had a colder winter. Maybe next year we can find out.
 
As I said on a previous page, I do buy this weekend's frost/freeze potential but in the long range...more likely we end up with 60's then anything.
 
Remember this is FICG! Freezing in Cuba Goofy. And all it's showing is a few drive bys. The 0 line barely makes it down to me, much less Cuba. So doing the calculations necessary to properly translate the Gfs cold bias, then one can assume, it will be freezing in Chicago and in the 40's in Tenn.
 
When the bottom of the trough is down around Galveston, then we might get some some real cold here. Hit and run drive by's won't do it. I keep looking for the trough to set up back west, but so far it seems to want some beach time. And it's not really much of a trough, more of a drunken swerve, then a lurch back north east. T
 
dsaur said:
Remember this is FICG! Freezing in Cuba Goofy. And all it's showing is a few drive bys. The 0 line barely makes it down to me, much less Cuba. So doing the calculations necessary to properly translate the Gfs cold bias, then one can assume, it will be freezing in Chicago and in the 40's in Tenn.
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and like today - 86º or greater in Gainesville :oops:
 
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