Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I've already posted some of these, but just a reminder of how many great storms we've had near the first of march & how much this winter has completely sucked.
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Pattern Microwave March
- Thread starter SD
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I've already posted some of these, but just a reminder of how many great storms we've had near the first of march & how much this winter has completely sucked.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
You know it's warm when even a massive cyclone over the Great lakes only leads to 850mb temperature anomalies of ~ -5C. Womp
pcbjr
Member
Yup! And its been warm - look at the map I put over in Banter.
pcbjr
Member
And looking further down the road ...
whatalife
Moderator
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Just block him. It'll ease your pain but it might make you dumber
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Good grief, look at how much warmer is the 12Z Euro vs its 0Z run! And to add salt to the wounds, look at how much warmer is the 12Z GEFS 11-15 day period!
Anyone looking forward to the Euro weeklies? I haven't heard them mentioned recently.
ATL has already gotten its 3rd warmest DJF on record and warmest since 1889-90. All it would take for ATL to get THE warmest DJFM on record would be a March that is 4+ warmer than normal. That shouldn't be too difficult the way things have been going and the way things look today, but we'll see. The pro forecast that I follow and which has done very well this winter has ATL at +4 for Mar 1-13.
Anyone want to take bets on how much colder next winter will be compared to this one? Could it be a record cold drop? If we get a weak to moderate Nino, I wouldn't bet the farm against this possibility.
Anyone looking forward to the Euro weeklies? I haven't heard them mentioned recently.
ATL has already gotten its 3rd warmest DJF on record and warmest since 1889-90. All it would take for ATL to get THE warmest DJFM on record would be a March that is 4+ warmer than normal. That shouldn't be too difficult the way things have been going and the way things look today, but we'll see. The pro forecast that I follow and which has done very well this winter has ATL at +4 for Mar 1-13.
Anyone want to take bets on how much colder next winter will be compared to this one? Could it be a record cold drop? If we get a weak to moderate Nino, I wouldn't bet the farm against this possibility.
pcbjr
Member
You're preaching to the choir (in a good way lest my message be mistaken as otherwise)!Good grief, look at how much warmer is the 12Z Euro vs its 0Z run! And to add salt to the wounds, look at how much warmer is the 12Z GEFS 11-15 day period!
Anyone looking forward to the Euro weeklies? I haven't heard them mentioned recently.
ATL has already gotten its 3rd warmest DJF on record and warmest since 1889-90. All it would take for ATL to get THE warmest DJFM on record would be a March that is 4+ warmer than normal. That shouldn't be too difficult the way things have been going and the way things look today, but we'll see. The pro forecast that I follow and which has done very well this winter has ATL at +4 for Mar 1-13.
Anyone want to take bets on how much colder next winter will be compared to this one? Could it be a record cold drop? If we get a weak to moderate Nino, I wouldn't bet the farm against this possibility.
whatalife
Moderator
Good grief, look at how much warmer is the 12Z Euro vs its 0Z run! And to add salt to the wounds, look at how much warmer is the 12Z GEFS 11-15 day period!
Anyone looking forward to the Euro weeklies? I haven't heard them mentioned recently.
ATL has already gotten its 3rd warmest DJF on record and warmest since 1889-90. All it would take for ATL to get THE warmest DJFM on record would be a March that is 4+ warmer than normal. That shouldn't be too difficult the way things have been going and the way things look today, but we'll see. The pro forecast that I follow and which has done very well this winter has ATL at +4 for Mar 1-13.
Anyone want to take bets on how much colder next winter will be compared to this one? Could it be a record cold drop? If we get a weak to moderate Nino, I wouldn't bet the farm against this possibility.
Yeah! It wouldn't be surprising at all given how warm we've been this year.
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ATLwxfan
Member
May not necessarily be that much colder. We're in some uncharted territory here.
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I'm trying to determine if the implication is I'm already dumb??? Lol... jkJust block him. It'll ease your pain but it might make you dumber
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You know seeing as how things are looking warmer as we get closer in time, I say lets go all out and try to break all kinds of warm weather records for DJFM and maybe if next year is just normal it will feel like the arctic to us
ATLwxfan
Member
Have a feeling 18z will be colder. No scientific reason.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Good grief, look at how much warmer is the 12Z Euro vs its 0Z run! And to add salt to the wounds, look at how much warmer is the 12Z GEFS 11-15 day period!
Anyone looking forward to the Euro weeklies? I haven't heard them mentioned recently.
ATL has already gotten its 3rd warmest DJF on record and warmest since 1889-90. All it would take for ATL to get THE warmest DJFM on record would be a March that is 4+ warmer than normal. That shouldn't be too difficult the way things have been going and the way things look today, but we'll see. The pro forecast that I follow and which has done very well this winter has ATL at +4 for Mar 1-13.
Anyone want to take bets on how much colder next winter will be compared to this one? Could it be a record cold drop? If we get a weak to moderate Nino, I wouldn't bet the farm against this possibility.
That's certainly possible, and if we get an easterly QBO, weak-moderate, maybe even low end strong event we'd be in business, however I am a little concerned about the relatively high energetic electron precipitation (EEP) following the most recent last solar max. EEP lags solar irradiance peak by several years and increases in EEP lead to the production of NOx that accumulates and descends into the polar stratosphere. NOx significantly impacts the chemistry of the mid-upper atmosphere by destroying ozone, which also has significant effects on the stratosphere's overall temperature structure. Ultimately, higher EEP leads to a stronger polar vortex and tendency for a +AO/NAO... It may be a few more years before EEP begins to quiet down again relatively speaking... :/
whatalife
Moderator
I'm trying to determine if the implication is I'm already dumb??? Lol... jk
You know seeing as how things are looking warmer as we get closer in time, I say lets go all out and try to break all kinds of warm weather records for DJFM and maybe if next year is just normal it will feel like the arctic to us
That's the spirit! You hit 30 days of a 100° in summer and that 31st day is 90° and it feels like winter is on your doorstep. LOL!
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WeatherWatch
Member
What does NOx mean and QBO? Isn't the QBO an oscillation?
I believe that is nitrogen oxides (NOx) and yes the Quasi Biennial Oscillation but trust me that's the extent of my knowledge, just wanted whatalife up there to know that Webber has made me smarter
whatalife
Moderator
I believe that is nitrogen oxides (NOx) and yes the Quasi Biennial Oscillation but trust me that's the extent of my knowledge, just wanted whatalife up there to know that Webber has made me smarter
How do you get to be a Mod on this forum and not have more breathtaking knowledge about (NOx) and (QBO). I guess Webber will have to dumb it down a little more the next time class is in session
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Storm5
Member
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whatalife
Moderator
WeatherWatch
Member
A question to Webber, or anyone can answer this. So, a higher accumulation of NOx eventually decents to the polar stratosphere and weakens the PV, leading to warmer than normal PV? What drives the EEP and makes the electrons stronger? Is it solar flares? Basically, when there is an increase of EEP there will also be an increase of NOx that eventually decents to the polar stratosphere?
pcbjr
Member
This may be of some interest:
https://twitter.com/hashtag/polarvortex?src=hash
Edit - Looks like Storm beat me to it a few posts up ... silly clients calling .... LOL
https://twitter.com/hashtag/polarvortex?src=hash
Edit - Looks like Storm beat me to it a few posts up ... silly clients calling .... LOL
pcbjr
Member
Maybe a little drink of water on the way going into March, anyway (and a lot of folks could use it) ...
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Largest cooldown DJF vs prior DJF Atlanta/ENSO (using Webber's tables for ENSO):
#1: -10.5 1956-7 to 1957-8/WLN to borderline MEN/SEN
#2 -8.3 1889-90 to 1890-1/MLN to WLN
#3 -7.4 1975-6 to 1976-7/borderline MLN/SLN to WEN
#4 -7.1 1938-9 to 1939-40/WLN to borderline WEN/MEN
#5 -6.6 1908-9 to 1909-10/WLN to MLN
#6 -6.6 2008-9 to 2009-10/WLN to MEN
#7 -6.5 1875-6 to 1876-7/WLN to WEN (using SAV as a proxy since ATL N/A)
#8 -6.3 1879-80 to 1880-1/WLN to WEN
All it would take for next winter to get into this list would be for KATL to be near normal then. Also, keep in mind that when going from a WLN to EN of any strength, the odds would strongly favor a significantly colder winter vs the prior winter per history:
1. 1875-6 to 1876-7: -6.5 (using SAV as a proxy since ATL N/A) (7th largest drop)
2. 1879-80 to 1880-1: -6.3 (8th largest drop)
3. 1903-4 to 1904-5: -1.8 (1903-4 was already a cold winter; 1904-5 3rd coldest)
4. 1910-1 to 1911-2: -4.4
5. 1938-9 to 1939-40: -7.1 (1939-40 7th coldest)(4th largest drop)
6. 1950-1 to 1951-2: +3.9**
7. 1956-7 to 1957-8: -10.5 (largest drop)
8. 1964-5 to 1965-6: -3.0
9. 1971-2 to 1972-3: -3.1
10. 2008-9 to 2009-10: -6.6 (2009-10 9th coldest)(5th largest drop)
- So, 5 of the 8 largest drops on record from one winter to the next were when going from WLN to EN. Bottom line for winter lovers: hope for EN next winter!
- A whopping 9 of these 10 followup EN winters had at least one major winter storm! Only 2 of the prior 10 had one. So, next winter is liable to be far different if we get EN.
**1951-2 is the enigma of the group though even it had a major winter storm.
Addendum: I counted 22 WLN winters (peak in fall/winter no lower than -1.00). 10 of these 22 went on to EN.
#1: -10.5 1956-7 to 1957-8/WLN to borderline MEN/SEN
#2 -8.3 1889-90 to 1890-1/MLN to WLN
#3 -7.4 1975-6 to 1976-7/borderline MLN/SLN to WEN
#4 -7.1 1938-9 to 1939-40/WLN to borderline WEN/MEN
#5 -6.6 1908-9 to 1909-10/WLN to MLN
#6 -6.6 2008-9 to 2009-10/WLN to MEN
#7 -6.5 1875-6 to 1876-7/WLN to WEN (using SAV as a proxy since ATL N/A)
#8 -6.3 1879-80 to 1880-1/WLN to WEN
All it would take for next winter to get into this list would be for KATL to be near normal then. Also, keep in mind that when going from a WLN to EN of any strength, the odds would strongly favor a significantly colder winter vs the prior winter per history:
1. 1875-6 to 1876-7: -6.5 (using SAV as a proxy since ATL N/A) (7th largest drop)
2. 1879-80 to 1880-1: -6.3 (8th largest drop)
3. 1903-4 to 1904-5: -1.8 (1903-4 was already a cold winter; 1904-5 3rd coldest)
4. 1910-1 to 1911-2: -4.4
5. 1938-9 to 1939-40: -7.1 (1939-40 7th coldest)(4th largest drop)
6. 1950-1 to 1951-2: +3.9**
7. 1956-7 to 1957-8: -10.5 (largest drop)
8. 1964-5 to 1965-6: -3.0
9. 1971-2 to 1972-3: -3.1
10. 2008-9 to 2009-10: -6.6 (2009-10 9th coldest)(5th largest drop)
- So, 5 of the 8 largest drops on record from one winter to the next were when going from WLN to EN. Bottom line for winter lovers: hope for EN next winter!
- A whopping 9 of these 10 followup EN winters had at least one major winter storm! Only 2 of the prior 10 had one. So, next winter is liable to be far different if we get EN.
**1951-2 is the enigma of the group though even it had a major winter storm.
Addendum: I counted 22 WLN winters (peak in fall/winter no lower than -1.00). 10 of these 22 went on to EN.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
NOx essentially refers to odd nitrogen (i.e. N + NO + NO2) compounds which are produced naturally in the thermosphere by extreme ultraviolet and x-ray radiation in addition to energetic electrons that I mentioned earlier, and anthropogenically via incomplete fossil fuel combustion. During the long polar night, when sunlight is practically absent, the lifetime of NOx increases significantly and they can be mixed down into the stratosphere where they destroy ozone in catalytic reactions. These intrusions of NOx can also increase again due to solar proton events (SPEs) emitted as part of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and following sudden stratospheric warming events. The ingestion and descent of NOx from the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (where it typically resides), into the stratosphere can thus impact the stratospheric and tropospheric circulation for months and even years after NOx enters the polar stratosphere... The reason the effects can linger for such an extended period of time are due to NOx's impact on ozone concentrations in the stratosphere.
Stratospheric ozone is made via photodissociation (splitting) of oxygen by ultraviolet radiation in the tropical stratosphere where the sunlight is the strongest. These newly separated O molecules are very reactive and quickly merge w/ concurrent O2 molecules that then causes O3 (ozone) to form. This process of splitting oxygen in the tropical stratosphere causes the air temperature to warm with increasing height in the stratosphere, and hence destruction of ozone can also impact the temperature structure of the stratosphere, which thereby impacts the zonal and meridional height gradients, the polar night jet, and the general circulation. Increased ozone destruction in the polar stratosphere by NOx influxes induced in part by either energetic electron precipitation or sudden stratospheric warming events feeds back onto a stronger tropospheric polar vortex and thus a more robust and persistent +AO/+NAO that is associated w/ generally zonal flow across the mid-latitudes, warmer temperatures, and thus below normal probabilities for cold and snow in the SE US.
The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) refers to the semi-regular, inter-annual downward propagation of anomalous zonal winds in the tropical stratosphere with a mean period of approximately 20-34 months that's believed to be driven primarily by zonal momentum flux deposition from the upward propagation of a myriad (large variety, array) of convectively coupled equatorial waves into the stratosphere. Essentially what I'm saying here is that as upward propagating tropical waves coupled w/ convection in the tropics begin to weaken as they approach the tropoapause (the boundary between the stratosphere and troposphere), they dampen (weaken) & as they weaken, they impart an acceleration on the mean flow in the same direction as they're moving. Waves of westerly zone phase speed, or those that move to the east (Kelvin wave modes) leading to the downward propagation of westerly QBO regimes, and easterly QBOs driven by rossby modes, favor easterly QBO descent, and there's also from a smattering of high frequency gravity waves that are generated by cumulonimbus (Cb) convection that contribute to the downward propagation of the zonal wind regimes associated with the QBO. The QBO essentially regulates the efficiency of the upward propagation of mid-latitude rossby waves to decelerate the polar night jet that encapsulates (surrounds) the polar vortex, and the destruction of the polar night jet is what leads to sudden stratospheric warming events and the potential for very persistent and strong high-latitude blocking regimes (-AO/-NAOs) in mid-late winter... According to new literature released within the past year or so, the QBO also impacts the static stability and vertical wind shear in the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere even on intraseasonal time scales, with increases (decreases) in static stability accompanying westerly (easterly) QBO regimes that can change the placement, intensity, and persistence of tropical convection near the equator. This also means the QBO can affect and feedback onto the tropical waves that regulate its downward propagation and even the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO)! In this case, higher than normal MJO activity is favored in easterly QBO regimes (where stability is lower on on equatorial convection is enhanced by the anomalous cooling underneath easterly QBO descent). The QBO also comprises the upward branch of the stratospheric Brewer Dobson Circulation (BDC) which is the primary circulation that regulates the transport of chemical constituents such as NOx, which as noted earlier, can have appreciable impacts on the wintertime polar vortex for several years or more at a time. The recent twin westerly QBO regimes is highly unusual in the observed record and recent studies suggest that hadley cell expansion coupled with the unusual super NINO event in 2015-16 that suppressed rossby wave activity and enhanced kelvin wave activity (westerly convectively coupled equatorial modes) led to the unexpected return of the westerly QBO, although there are likely other contributors to this unusual anomaly.
In essence, this is why energetic electron precipitation and the QBO are important for our weather in the mid-latitudes and deserve our upmost attention.
Here are several schematic diagrams that help to illustrate some of the points I touched base on in this post.
Shown here are a few very generalized depictions of anomalous temperatures and their association with QBO wind regimes, with near-equatorial warmth (& thus increased on-equatorial stability) and decreased upwelling and therefore a weaker BDC, tending to occur in westerly QBOs and vis versa.
Here is a classical composite temperature map derived from potential vorticity intrusion onto the polar vortex showing the sensible impacts from an easterly and westerly QBO which is the essence of the Holton-Tan effect. The Holton Tan Effect basically describes (as I have above) how the QBO couples with an impacts the northern stratospheric polar vortex (& thus the AO/NAO). Keep in mind though, that these impacts are also somewhat state dependent, with higher solar activity in conjunction w/ easterly QBOs actually tending to favor stronger polar vortices and lower solar activity concurrent w/ westerly QBOs being even more conducive to a stronger polar vortex...
Hope some of this makes sense! I know a lot of this may go over everyone's heads, but this information is very important and pertinent to long range, intraseasonal, seasonal, and inter annual weather forecasts...
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Energetic electron precipitation is driven by the sun, which unfortunately is highly unpredictable w/ these solar proton events occurring often at random although they tend to occur more often during solar max than solar min. Yes, you're right, what happens is EEP associated with coronal mass ejections and large solar flares causes NOx concentrations to increase, and when this newly formed NOx reaches the polar stratosphere, it destroys ozone which cools the polar stratosphere, and ultimately strengthens the polar vortex. Given how long it can take for new ozone to replace it via the BDC I mentioned in an earlier response, the impacts from EEP events can last for several years...
Essentially if you really boil this down: less EEP provides forcing that lowers NOx concentrations, lower amounts of NOx increases the temperature of the polar stratosphere, and increases the probability of the northern hemisphere polar vortex weakening, which then increases the chances for high-latitude blocking (i.e. -NAO/-AOs) & so on and so forth.
pcbjr
Member
you villain ....
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WeatherWatch
Member
Webber, so since the QBO can effect the tropical waves this can cause inaccuracy with the MJO? Are there westerly QBOs now or will there be westerly QBOs in the coming days? I ask this cause as we know, the models have been hinting at a colder pattern across the east. The models have even shown a soild air mass being locked in place for several days in March. This depends on the higher latitude blocking. If the blocking doesn't hold, then of course there won't be a soild cold air mass locked in place for several days. We also have to be concerned about it getting active again out west. If it gets active again, there will just be a day or two of below normal or near normal temps. after the severe threat of March 1st.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Well on seasonal-intraseasonal timescales (30-120 days) the QBO can impact the MJO activity overall but its negligible on the timescales of a few days to a week or so, most of the errors w/ MJO forecasts have to do w/ the global models (esp the GEFS') poor parameterization schemes of tropical convection. We're currently in our second westerly QBO regime in a row (for reasons I explained above) and have been in one for a few years now... These piss-poor parameterizations of tropical convection also reflect onto the models' canonical dampening and fast bias w/ the MJO, i.e. global models generally tend to underestimate the strength of the MJO over most leads/lags, and usually propagate it too quickly thru the tropics, and try to depict it as a moist convectively coupled kelvin wave.
WeatherWatch
Member
I understand now, that's why the MJO can change a lot, is becuase the OP and ensemble models change a lot too. When they change, the MJO changes. I always thought that the MJO is it's own thing. Basically, the MJO is a model that uses OP and ensemble data to predict where warmer regions will be and colder regions will be during the predicted time. Instead of looking at it on a map, you're seeing it in phases and what is occuring across the hemispheres. The MJO breaks it down into regions.
I counted 22 WLN winters (LN peak in fall/winter no more negative than -1.00) excluding 2017-8 per Webber's tables. 10 of these 22 had a subsequent winter that was EN. 5 went on to neutral. The other 7 had another LN. Winter lovers should root for EN, which fortunately is the most favored of the three main categories, for the best shot at a cold and wintry winter in 2017-8.
pcbjr
Member
Webb is far, far, far more knowledgeable than I, and his explanations are -- well, superb for lack of a better word.
Here's a good "primer" though, related to basic MJO concepts, which may be of some assistance for anyone interested in rudiments (FWIW)
http://wwa.colorado.edu/climate/iwcs/archive/IWCS_2008_May_focus.pdf
And GaWx has some really good MJO stuff in the Blog, as well.
Just tossin' this out there in case anyone is interested ....
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Well, nothing is truly independent, the MJO can modulated and excited by extratropical rossby waves breaking into the tropics, sudden stratospheric warming events, etc. and the MJO is actually none of those things, it's actually just an eastward propagating, broad conglomerate of showers, cloudiness and convection in the tropics that's comprised of a broad suite of equatorial waves (including Kelvin, Rossby, Mixed Rossby Gravity, etc).
I strongly suggest looking through this literature view on the MJO from Zhang, it gives you a very good idea on what the MJO is and its importance and role in the coupled ocean-atmosphere system.
Taken straight out the abstract...
" The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO): the dominant component of the intraseasonal (30 – 90 days) variability in the tropical atmosphere. It consists of large-scale coupled patterns in atmospheric circulation and deep convection, with coherent signals in many other variables, all propagating eastward slowly (5 m s1) through the portion of the Indian and Pacific oceans where the sea surface is warm. It constantly interacts with the underlying ocean and influences many weather and climate systems."
https://www.rsmas.miami.edu/users/czhang/publications/MJOrev.pdf
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah that's definitely a good source to look over before diving into the Zhang paper...
pcbjr
Member
Dude - we think a lot a like!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah, the delayed oscillator mechanism at its finest... granted you should note that the probabilites for La Ninas following El Ninos are higher than NINAs after NINOs. Bjerknes feedback and coupling is more efficient during El Ninos vs La Ninas
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I will also need to make some revisions to my ENS ONI next week and add the CERA-20C to my analysis and QC.
pcbjr
Member
Webb - Let me expand the thought.
We start in kindergarten, go to 8th grade, then high school, then ...
I'm still stuck in the 5th grade on weather, but when I can find a basis to get from Algebra 1 to Algebra 2 to Calc 1 (using the school analogy) and then when you tie it together so I can comprehend the the links ... well maybe someday I'll get to Jr. High!
Thanks Man!
Phil
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I really appreciate the kind words! Yea unfortunately as you'll soon find out in this field, the more you know, the more you realize you don't know....
pcbjr
Member
Try being a trial lawyer ... LOL