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Pattern Microwave March

GaWx said:
The run is MUCH colder than the prior one for the E US overall for 3/9-12. I'm not talking about a storm.
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Euro
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Gfs
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Webberweather53 said:
The 12z EPS is definitely colder than the 0z...
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Webberweather53 said:
The 12z EPS is definitely colder than the 0z...
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I was going to say that although the 12Z EPS isn't nearly as cold as the 12Z Euro operational, it is also not nearly as warm as the 0Z EPS.

Regardless, although the GFS cold bias has been worse than the Euro cold bias this winter, even the Euro has had a pretty strong cold bias. So, in addition to the 12Z EPS not being nearly as cold as the operational, that's a reason to take the cold 12Z Euro with a gigantic grain of salt at this time. I recommend folks monitor trends over the weekend. We saw something similar a week ago on the 12Z EPS, which was then a much colder run. As it turned out, it was a cold outlier.

By the way, the 18Z GFS caught a cold again in the 11-15 day. We know to take with 1 million times the size of the largest grain of salt ever to have existed.
 
whatalife said:
Yeah! I got neither but I hear Charlie likes to swim with the Great Whites off the coast of Hilton Head...So we got that going for us...


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I will never get back into the Atlantic . The southernwx live show will be from the bar like 600 yards from the water . I will be testing out various beers and watching all the idiots going neck deep


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Storm5 said:
I will never get back into the Atlantic . The southernwx live show will be from the bar like 600 yards from the water . I will be testing out various beers and watching all the idiots going neck deep


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Don't forget to take the private jet to get there

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SD said:
Don't forget to take the private jet to get there

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Yeah that's the plan the 100,000 sq foot house I'm building is much closer to the private airport . Was only gonna go 75,000 sq feet but the sites doing so well I splurged


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Storm5 said:
I will never get back into the Atlantic . The southernwx live show will be from the bar like 600 yards from the water . I will be testing out various beers and watching all the idiots going neck deep


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If you drink enough you won't feel a thing when Jaws sinks his teeth in you...LOL


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Uh oh, the cold that the 18Z caught during the 11-15 spread to the 0Z 11-15. I hope goofy feels better soon.

Anyone staying up for the Euro? Enjoy it because DST is returning in 9 days. :(
 
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Well, the Euro has been cured of its cold! It is only 25 degrees warmer at times next weekend vs the 12Z.
 
Get a block like this and no wonder we got a run like that...best-case scenario for the NE if I've ever seen one, doubt it has EPS support but if this block starts showing up...watch out.

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I guess the blocking isnt good enough for the southeast? Whats it gonna take for that snow to shift south and bring a widespread foot of snow to dixie?
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I guess the blocking isnt good enough for the southeast? Whats it gonna take for that snow to shift south and bring a widespread foot of snow to dixie?
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Verbatim the blocking is fine, 850's are plenty cold the track is just the issue, it goes inland. We'd like to see the energy holding off and going neutral to negative a bit later, could get all of NC basically in the game and have some back-end snow for the N Gulf state counties with a massive bomb off the NC coast...but yeah, odds are 1 in a million we see a repeat on the 12z Euro - but if this is anywhere close to right on the block, NC and the greater northern gulf state counties are game. Would be complete insanity to close winter like this, haha. Something to watch for is the potential blocking S of greenland, if it improves on the 00z Ensembles and a trend emerges, that's enough.
 
I'm up, might as well post.
Blocking is improved 10-fold on the EPS leading up to the system on the 00z Euro OP...if we want winter to continue, this is the trend you want to see that I mentioned in the above post. The ever-elusive block.

12z EPS yesterday
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00z EPS today
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I updated my NCEP NCAR Reanalysis MEI index yesterday. MEI Rankings remain the same, the index rose slightly in January-February. There's a huge internal battle between SSTs and surface air temperatures which are supportive of a weak El Nino, whereas precipitation, OLR, U & V wind EOF values are akin to weak-moderate La Ninas.
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NCEP NCAR Reanalysis MEI Rankings 1986-Feb 2017.png

http://weatheradvance.com/home/weat...Index-MEI-Raw-Data-Rankings-1948-Feb-2017.txt
 
Our only opportunity, in seeing a upper south and north winter storm would be middle of the month. GFS has been advertising this on and off for a while now. Winters last grip
 
Oh no, are we talking about snow again?:p The Euro may be convincing if it shows up again. It and the GFS are liking cold later this month, but the Euro wants a big storm. Could be worth watching, but I don't buy until the Euro has 5 solid runs saying something like this.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Oh no, are we talking about snow again?:p The Euro may be convincing if it shows up again. It and the GFS are liking cold later this month, but the Euro wants a big storm. Could be worth watching, but I don't buy until the Euro has 5 solid runs saying something like this.
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its going to be a big storm... but not on the winter side of things in south... im seeing a big severe event shaping up ... euro will be back down to earth at noon today
 
tennessee storm said:
its going to be a big storm... but not on the winter side of things in south... im seeing a big severe event shaping up ... euro will be back down to earth at noon today
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No doubt about severe leading the way, but it is what may follow that is cold. If we do in fact see blocking, the system will be driven further south instead of cutting, but though Kentucky or Tennessee as shown by the Euro, resulting in colder air behind it, but I a wouldn't be too sure on a pattern change. If you took the GFS however at 6Z, it shows this blocking, which shoves the PV into the Hudson Bay.
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ForsythSnow said:
Oh no, are we talking about snow again?:p The Euro may be convincing if it shows up again. It and the GFS are liking cold later this month, but the Euro wants a big storm. Could be worth watching, but I don't buy until the Euro has 5 solid runs saying something like this.
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The euro won't be convincing ever post day 6. It's been horrible this year


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ForsythSnow said:
If you took the GFS however at 6Z, it shows this blocking, which shoves the PV into the Hudson Bay.
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I see what you are saying - but - and this is a very sincere question (not sarcastic or rhetorical in any way) - What would be the source of blocking? The NAO is forecasted to go + and I am not seeing any sustained 50/50 low. What am I missing? Thanks! Phil
 
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