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Pattern Microwave March

GaWx said:
"Cold" is the beautiful radiational cooling generated 36 low that Gainesville had the pleasure of experiencing yesterday morning. Man, y'all are good.
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You got it Man! And what a beautiful day today - nice NE wind, 73º, partly cloudy (so the Irish skin can take it!!) and other than Vandy - a lovely weekend - just wondering if I'll need another 5:00 AM get-out-and-walk light sweatshirt after this AM until after next Thanksgiving though (guess I could crank the A/C down in July an pretend --- LOL) ;)
 
Even though we're getting very late in the season, this z500 at day 5 is actually not bad at all... Too bad it's not February or early March.
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GaWx said:
The 12Z Doc has a major SN 3/12 in NC. Even though it may be fun to see especially for NC folks, take it with a humongous grain as no other model has anything close to this and even the Doc, itself, has been flipping wildly from one run to the next in addition to being cold biased overall. Remember that this is 7 days out, which makes the chances of this verifying closely on a wildly volatile model with a solid cold bias low at best. I lean toward the Euro reverting right back to warmer tonight. We'll see.

Even this colder run is not cold overall in the 6-10 day period for most of the SE outside of much of NC.
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With the blocking scheme showing up I guess anything can be possible, I'm just paying attention to the where that vortex swings to our NE and whether or not a wave actually forms. The fact that we're seeing snow on Day 7 in NC on the Euro is outright shocking to me...first DCA to Maine with 20-50", now an NC hit...it sees something on the east coast -- where is the question. Unfortunately I'm betting against NC here.
 
Jon said:
With the blocking scheme showing up I guess anything can be possible, I'm just paying attention to the where that vortex swings to our NE and whether or not a wave actually forms. The fact that we're seeing snow on Day 7 in NC on the Euro is outright shocking to me...first DCA to Maine with 20-50", now an NC hit...it sees something on the east coast -- where is the question. Unfortunately I'm betting against NC here.
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... and Gainesville, I take it ... LOL (and good luck - you all deserve at least one real good one this year!) ;)
 
Webberweather53 said:
Even though we're getting very late in the season, this z500 at day 5 is actually not bad at all... Too bad it's not February or early March.
View attachment 325
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Hmm....RDU >1" March snowfalls since 1947 n=13

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Webberweather53 said:
Even though we're getting very late in the season, this z500 at day 5 is actually not bad at all... Too bad it's not February or early March.
View attachment 325
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Indeed, but even at this hour (120), I know you must realize it is significantly different from its fun just 12 hours ago as well as the 12Z GFS/CMC and the 0Z EPS mean. If the Euro had been a warm biased model this winter, this might have been enough to get me hopeful for NC. But with it being cold biased and so much colder with the piece of PV at hour 120 being 500 miles SE of both its 0Z Euro and 12Z GFS positions, I'm pretty confident it is just a tease with the PV piece likely reverting a good bit back NW on tonight's run. We'll see.
 
Storm5 said:
Lol 12z EPs.... skewed by two big members
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Yeah, not surpringly, the 12Z EPS mean for the 6-10 went much colder in the E US vs the 0Z EPS mean. But it is also much colder than the 12Z GEFS/GEPS and is cold biased this winter.
 
GaWx said:
Indeed, but even at this hour (120), I know you must realize it is significantly different from its fun just 12 hours ago as well as the 12Z GFS/CMC and the 0Z EPS mean. If the Euro had been a warm biased model this winter, this might have been enough to get me hopeful for NC. But with it being cold biased and so much colder with the piece of PV at hour 120 being 500 miles SE of both its 0Z Euro and 12Z GFS positions, I'm pretty confident it is just a tease with the PV piece likely reverting a good bit back NW on tonight's run. We'll see.
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As noted by Paul Roundy, the ECMWF's recognition of increased precipitation northeast of the Maritime Continent is a likely reason why the omega block amplified considerably in the far North Pacific. While there have been prevalent warm biases in guidance this year, that doesn't necessarily mean every window is going to trend warmer, and even w/ the same tropical forcing featuring quasi-stationary, ENSO induced ENH Maritime Continent convection, shortening of the wavelengths alone in late winter-early spring will lead to transient cold shots. There's still more uncertainty than normal here, but we're getting inside day 5 with this upper level pattern, the window for error is shrinking...
 
EPS has a decent signal for RDU, 20% of members with snow...our Jan system had a similar look. The EPS and overall h5 look had piqued my interest for 3/12ish, regardless of the 12z Op run
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The ensemble does have a mean of 0c 850 during this time frame, so the OP isn't too far off or aggressively cold, not enough to completely toss the look assuming we get precip.
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tldr; it's worth keeping an eye on.



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Guess I probably should start putting some more snow/sleet accumulation maps from ~ March 10-13th to get a decent sample size of events to choose from.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Wow, pretty incredible shift on the 12z EPS inside day 5... You won't see this very often.
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Yes, not often at all. But that also tells me to be quite wary about at least a partial jump back NW even though it is the most accurate of all on average. I'd at the very least want to first see the next run before even getting the least bit excited especially due to cold bias.
 
GaWx said:
Yes, not often at all. But that also tells me to be quite wary about at least a partial jump back NW even though it is the most accurate of all on average. I'd at the very least want to first see the next run before even getting the least bit excited especially due to cold bias.
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There's definitely a lot of uncertainty with the storm itself but I'm a little less skeptical of the cold considering the cool 2mT bias has been primarily in the 6-10, not inside day 5...
 
Perhaps maybe there is something to pay attention to here after all, but maybe not. The GFS had this low up in the Midwest several runs ago, running into Canada, and has since shifted it south to central Missouri moving eastward. If the GFS keeps the trend, and the Euro keeps its position, maybe winter isn't over after all. Either that or we have snow deprivation lol.
 
GaWx said:
"Cold" is the beautiful radiational cooling generated 36 low that Gainesville had the pleasure of experiencing yesterday morning. Man, y'all are good.
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I've got a studied "feeling" about the 16th - 17th down here in Hogtown - and that could play wonders further north - stay tuned ....
 
ForsythSnow said:
Perhaps maybe there is something to pay attention to here after all, but maybe not. The GFS had this low up in the Midwest several runs ago, running into Canada, and has since shifted it south to central Missouri moving eastward. If the GFS keeps the trend, and the Euro keeps its position, maybe winter isn't over after all. Either that or we have snow deprivation lol.
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Yea, I definitely am suffering from that lol... At least we have tornado season to look forward to. Got a nice taste of it last week
 
Gfs has a much flatter ridge in the west vs the euro . That has massive implications

18z gfs
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12z euro
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Storm5 said:
Gfs has a much flatter ridge in the west vs the euro . That has massive implications

18z gfs
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12z euro
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That Euro reminds me of the biggest, worst thundersnow I ever saw - St. Paddy's 1975 on the south lee side of Lake Michigan with big, heavy wet LE accumulating over 10" within about 4 hours with lightning and thunder all day long - lightning looked like neon on the snow (strange luminance) - like a summer day but with snow...
 
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