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Pattern Microwave March

GeorgiaGirl said:
Okay now that I see the late portion of the GFS, I have a good feeling that none of this GFS run is going to happen. WTF? Why would a system just start to curl over from the northeast coast into Canada?
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Well, what about that 1064 high in Greenland at 384 just for laughs?
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_52.png
 
I was just checking out the 0z EPS and it continues to show moisture being suppressed as the cold air is making it's way down south. It does show the cold holding its ground during the 6th-10th across the east and it starts warming up again on the 10th. With the moisture being suppressed on the EPS, we could be onto something, but the real question is, will it be cold enough during a weather system? If there will be a system, there could be winter weather at the onset then it warms during the weather system outside of the mountains.

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SnowHusky said:
I was just checking out the 0z EPS and it continues to show moisture being suppressed as the cold air is making it's way down south. It does show the cold holding its ground during the 6th-10th across the east and it starts warming up again on the 10th. With the moisture being suppressed on the EPS, we could be onto something, but the real question is, will it be cold enough during a weather system? If there will be a system, there could be winter weather at the onset then it warms during the weather system outside of the mountains.

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No, the real question is will we even have a storm to begin with... It's futile to try and pinpoint and/or wishcast specifics at this range. If anything, you should actually be concerned about the potential moderate-high impact QLCS-driven wind event in a few days...
 
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Webberweather53 said:
Here's your daily reminder of how much this winter sucks... Another forgotten late February beauty in 1937. Dropped


No, the real question is will we even have a storm to begin with... It's futile to try and pinpoint and/or wishcast specifics at this range. If anything, you should actually be concerned about the potential moderate-high impact QLCS-driven wind event in a few days...
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Actually, wouldn't we need a proper setup before we look for a storm? Having a ridge out west or any other setup that could be good if a storm system came in would be far more important than a storm since storms that show up seem to have become cutters in the end or non events. I am also becoming more focused on the event coming up this week as it could get interesting.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Actually, wouldn't we need a proper setup before we look for a storm? Having a ridge out west or any other setup that could be good if a storm system came in would be far more important than a storm since storms that show up seem to have become cutters in the end or non events. I am also becoming more focused on the event coming up this week as it could get interesting.
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We actually have a decent planetary wave configuration for a storm but there's too much uncertainty wrt whether one will show up to begin with... The pattern doesn't look favorable in this specific time period for a storm to cut from the southern plains and central rockies to the lakes with a deep cold core trough over the Great Lakes and extreme SE Canada (which would shear any storm apart), if anything a clipper bombing out in/around New England &/or Atlantic Canada would be most conducive from a climatological and persistence standpoint.
eps_z500a_noram_41.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Here's your daily reminder of how much this winter sucks... Another forgotten late February beauty in 1937. Dropped


No, the real question is will we even have a storm to begin with... It's futile to try and pinpoint and/or wishcast specifics at this range. If anything, you should actually be concerned about the potential moderate-high impact QLCS-driven wind event in a few days...
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Okay, did I say there will be a storm system? No. Just saying if there will be a weather system. Second of all, I'm I wishcasting or pinpointing things out? No, just stating possibilities and telling what shows on the models in text form. I'm not going to let what happen again like yesterday.

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SnowHusky said:
Okay, did I say there will be a storm system? No. Just saying if there will be a weather system. Second of all, I'm I wishcasting or pinpointing things out? No, just stating possibilities and telling what shows on the models in text form. I'm not going to let what happen again like yesterday.

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Ok first off how you do know what would transpire given there would actually be a storm a week-10 days out from now? You don't and neither do I... I'm certainly interested to know how you came to the conclusion that if we had a storm we'd see "wintry weather at the onset that changes to liquid precipitation except in the mountains". Simple fact of the matter is you (or I) don't know this either, so even making a statement like this is textbook wish casting, whether you will ever realize it or not. I'm beating a dead horse here but simply regurgitating what the models are showing a week or more out is not, i repeat NOT weather forecasting. Anybody can do that... It's not my fault you've "walked away" from the forum several times in the past month and get butt hurt every time someone disagrees with you and/or calls you out on something.
 
We could really use another storm like this one to lighten the mood, but too bad that's not happening... :/ I was only 8 years old at the time but I vividly remember seeing snow totals approaching 12-14" in portions of Robeson and Scotland counties before a changeover to rain melted more than half of it. I ended up w/ 8" at my house (only one of 3x in my life I've seen that much snow) when we were only anticipating ~ 1-3" before it went over to rain... What massive bust this storm was along/north of the I-40 corridor esp NW of RDU and near the VA border where they were initially anticipating at least 6-12" of snow. Oops.
February 26-27 2004 NC Snowmap.gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
Ok first off how you do know what would transpire given there would actually be a storm a week-10 days out from now? You don't and neither do I... I'm certainly interested to know how you came to the conclusion that if we had a storm we'd see "wintry weather at the onset that changes to liquid precipitation except in the mountains". Simple fact of the matter is you (or I) don't know this either, so even making a statement like this is textbook wish casting, whether you will ever realize it or not. I'm beating a dead horse here but simply regurgitating what the models are showing a week or more out is not, i repeat NOT weather forecasting. Anybody can do that... It's not my fault you've "walked away" from the forum several times in the past month and get butt hurt every time someone disagrees with you and/or calls you out on something.
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Just... drop it. If the dead horse is horse slop, it's not worth it.
GaWx said:
The 12Z Euro is not encouraging to me as far as sustained cold chances in the SE are concerned.
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If I had to place bets, I have seen how it goes enough this part of winter to say the Euro will win over the GFS's insane cold blast, but it's weather, anything can change.
 
Webberweather53 said:
We could really use another storm like this one to lighten the mood, but too bad that's not happening... :/ I was only 8 years old at the time but I vividly remember seeing snow totals approaching 12-14" in portions of Robeson and Scotland counties before a changeover to rain melted more than half of it. I ended up w/ 8" at my house (only one of 3x in my life I've seen that much snow) when we were only anticipating ~ 1-3" before it went over to rain... What massive bust this storm was along/north of the I-40 corridor esp NW of RDU and near the VA border where they were initially anticipating at least 6-12" of snow. Oops.
View attachment 236
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Webb - sure as heck wish there were maps like that, and stories like that, down here! :p
Guess I got my lifetimes worth in 7 winters in South Bend, IN, though ...
 
pcbjr said:
Webb - sure as heck wish there were maps like that, and stories like that, down here! :p
Guess I got my lifetimes worth in 7 winters in South Bend, IN, though ...
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Not fair! South Bend, IN averages more snow per year than I've seen in almost my entire life combined in NC. Rip
 
Webberweather53 said:
Not fair! South Bend, IN averages more snow per year than I've seen in almost my entire life combined in NC. Rip
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It was fun - but it spoiled me; so what the heck did I do? Somehow ended back up where I grew up ... where folks don't have an accent and know how to eat good food .... LOL
 
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