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Pattern Microwave March

GaWx said:
Don,
There wasn't a solar min during/near 2013-14's winter. Actually, that was close to a max. The last min was ~2008-09. The next one is expected to be near the winter of 2019-20 at the earliest.

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During the 2013-14 winter, the solar min. was still in the process of returing back to a solar maximum. It was at a solar maximum since last year and this winter, that's one of the reasons why we had a warm winter. It's going back to a solar min. this year and next year, should be at it's lowest min. by the years you stated. So the next 2-3 winters could be colder.

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I'm not going to get reeled in by that time period late in the models but goofus seems to continue the idea from 12z of cooling down after March begins. Perhaps it ends up being temporary (only a couple days) but still...

Please, don't do this to us. Please. If we see a hard freeze after weeks of warmth, ugh...
 
SnowHusky said:
During the 2013-14 winter, the solar min. was still in the process of returing back to a solar maximum. It was at a solar maximum since last year and this winter, that's one of the reasons why we had a warm winter. It's going back to a solar min. this year and next year, should be at it's lowest min. by the years you stated. So the next 2-3 winters could be colder.

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2017-8 has about a 98% chance of being colder than 2016-7 because of how warm is 2016-7. For me, the most important single factor for me as regards the chance for 2017-8 actually being cold is whether or not we get a weak to moderate El Nino. IF that occurs and assuming we get a decent -AO to dominate, we'd likely be cold and could even be very cold, especially considering it following a weak Nina. However, if ENSO either remains neutral or goes to strong Nino, then all bets would be off for me.
 
GaWx said:
2017-8 has about a 98% chance of being colder than 2016-7 because of how warm is 2016-7. For me, the most important single factor for me as regards the chance for 2017-8 actually being cold is whether or not we get a weak to moderate El Nino. IF it is and assuming we get a decent -AO to dominate, we could see cold. However, if ENSO either remains neutral or goes to strong Nino, then all bets would be off for me.
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That makes since, it seems like during solar min. there are Nino's and when there are maximums, there's Nina's. During the years '15-16', that's when the solar max was at it's maximum and now it's going back to a solar min. Interesting stuff for sure.

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18z GFS spitting out a winter storm again for the southeast
 
And here comes the fantasy land storm loool. (Its there but it just dives away, next, it's going to cut into Canada)

I'm not fooled. This will need to hold for a while before I think there is even a small chance.
 
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metwannabe said:
No sir eps very interesting.... stay tuned

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Yep this may very well flame out like the rest and probably will but the models build in a few positive features during the first week of March that are at minimum worth a look.

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Yeah, I'm not getting hopes up about what shows up on the GFS at this point. I'm waiting for the EPS to get past day 9th in March.

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SoutheastRidge said:
Oh that was the same storm where the sun angle screwed me and I had 6" of snow fall and 1/2" actually stuck. Lots of thunder snow. Moderate snow for hours. I hate daytime March snows ! Moderate snow just won't cut it in March during the daytime. You need HEAVY rates of snow if you're going to have accumulating snow during the day. Can someone name me a case in March where light to moderate snow fell during the day and it accumulated to a great extent ?
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March 24, 1983 -- Started overnight and continued most of morning. Tapered off in early afternoon as I remember. About 8 inches at my house. (Carrollton GA) Of course, it was pretty heavy (not moderate to light) and it was very cloudy (not snow, then clear, then cloudy again and snow, etc. as sometimes can happen.) Don't care to debate it, sun angle does matter, but other factors can sometimes even overwhelm that. I don't remember how long it stayed around, probably was gone in two days. It was one of the heaviest snows we have ever had, including March 1993.
 
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18Z GFS is wet and largely seasonal/warm - anything else new today?
The wet is a good thing, however .... :cool:
 
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Hey atleast rain chances increase. We need it or we are in trouble for summer
 
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