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Pattern Microwave March

Storm5 said:
Yummy
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Just give me a little taller ridge out west and I'll roll the dice
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Lets make winter weather in the SE great again.



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ForsythSnow said:
Lol, you better not jinx us again by doing that, you will give yourself rain for the next 5 winters if you do.

Or it will go the other way, and flatten out and send everything north. It is interesting to see this pattern this late still, and if there is a wintry event involved, that too would be interesting to watch.
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sort of was my point - most models show a very zonal flow going forward after 280 or so ... :(
 
On this date in 1914 a massive snowstorm crushed the carolinas, dumping a foot or more of snow from the Midlands of SC through NE SC into the sandhills and south-central coastal plain and far southern piedmont of NC.
Society Hill was the big winner w/ 18" of snow, until February 1973, this was the benchmark storm in many of these aforementioned areas for the 20th century (yea haven't forgotten about Feb 1899).
February 24-26 1914 NC Snowmap.png



Crazy as it seems, at least 3 more winter storms would hit NC after this storm in mid-late March, and another big dog hit the state earlier in the month of February. 1913-14 was an awesome winter...
 
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For another run on the GFS, it's pretty cold around the similar dates, especially for March. On the 7th it gets cold and it stays cold through the 11th. Not super cold but multiple freezes and well below normal temps.
 
For a few days the pacific gets muted on this run, but it kick starts again late on the 11th into the 12th.
 
So, what is causing all this unseasonably warm air besides the SER/eastern ridge, +NAOs, -PNAs, +EPOs so forth, so forth? I'm thinking that each time the sun is at a solar minimum, winters will be colder and with above normal snowfall. With maximums, the winters are getting worse with unseasonably warm air with below normal snowfall. Solar activity does effect the weather patterns here on Earth. The La Nina was the other driver of the warm winter too of course but I wasn't expecting to have a winter like this.

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After 3/3 that was a cold gfs run. Has the ridge axis out west too far east to generate anything and it tucks the energy well SW

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SD said:
After 3/3 that was a cold gfs run. Has the ridge axis out west too far east to generate anything and it tucks the energy well SW

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Not buying it yet, but it's throwing 3 nights of 34º way down here - past truncation (but it beats the daylights out of the other way around - especially since I just spent two hours on my roof cleaning gutters and cool would have be nice - will be doing that chore again in about 3 weeks once the live oaks quit shedding - so moving forward here's hoping for some cool for me, and for everyone :cool: - LOL)

Edit - that's 3 GFS runs with low 30's down here - latching on to something? Gotta study ....
 
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SnowHusky said:
So, what is causing all this unseasonably warm air besides the SER/eastern ridge, +NAOs, -PNAs, +EPOs so forth, so forth? I'm thinking that each time the sun is at a solar minimum, winters will be colder and with above normal snowfall. With maximums, the winters are getting worse with unseasonably warm air with below normal snowfall. Solar activity does effect the weather patterns here on Earth. The La Nina was the other driver of the warm winter too of course but I wasn't expecting to have a winter like this.

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No. There's no simple quasi-linear correlation amongst sensible weather here and solar activity. The sun's influence on our weather is elusive at best and the relationships are several orders of magnitude more complex/complicated than the various "terrestrially isolated" phenomena many study here on earth.
 
SD said:
After 3/3 that was a cold gfs run. Has the ridge axis out west too far east to generate anything and it tucks the energy well SW

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Those freezes will zap all the plants for sure. It does look quite cold. I counted a total of 7 freezes, 5 in a row for most of the southeast, 2 not so much. Euro looks different at that time frame again, but has the ridge in the west.
 
Webberweather53 said:
No. There's no simple quasi-linear correlation amongst sensible weather here and solar activity. The sun's influence on our weather is elusive at best and the relationships are several orders of magnitude more complex/complicated than the various "terrestrially isolated" phenomena many study here on earth.
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For one - so looking forward to your interview this week (and thanks for the info today - will be studying!) - Phil
 
Webberweather53 said:
No. There's no simple quasi-linear correlation amongst sensible weather here and solar activity. The sun's influence on our weather is elusive at best and the relationships are several orders of magnitude more complex/complicated than the various "terrestrially isolated" phenomena many study here on earth.
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My theory is that winters will become colder and colder with above normal snowfall during minimums and with maximums, winters will be like this winter. It does seem like during minimums, an El Nino takes place, and when there is a maximum, a La Nina takes place. According to my study, the sun was trending back to a maximum since after the winter of 2010. The solar cycle was back at it's peak of maximum since 2015. The next lowest solar minimum will be in 2022-2023 based from my study.

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SnowHusky said:
My theory is that winters will become colder and colder with above normal snowfall during minimums and with maximums, winters will be like this winter. It does seem like during minimums, an El Nino takes place, and when there is a maximum, a La Nina takes place. According to my study, the sun was trending back to a maximum since after the winter of 2010. The solar cycle was back at it's peak of maximum since 2015. The next lowest solar minimum will be in 2022-2023 based from my study.

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are we in a maximum this winter?
 
pcbjr said:
are we in a maximum this winter?
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Yes, from my study, this winter, the sun was at it's peak maximum and I think that's one of the reasons why it was a warm winter. Solar activity isn't the only driver of weather of course.

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SnowHusky said:
My theory is that winters will become colder and colder with above normal snowfall during minimums and with maximums, winters will be like this winter. It does seem like during minimums, an El Nino takes place, and when there is a maximum, a La Nina takes place. According to my study, the sun was trending back to a maximum since after the winter of 2010. The solar cycle was back at it's peak of maximum since 2015. The next lowest solar minimum will be in 2022-2023 based from my study.

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Ugh... I seriously think you don't understand what an actual scientific study is. Some questions that should immediately come to your mind and you need to ask yourself before you call this a "study"...
What was the motivation of the study?
What were you trying to accomplish?
Did you publish it in a journal?
What were the specific numerical and qualitative results?
What dataset(s) did you use?
What were the resolutions and temporal ranges of the data you used?
What assumptions did you make?
What was your methodology?
What is the physical mechanism(s) that link these phenomena?
To what extent (if at all) are your conclusions significant?
What were the uncertainties?
How does your work compare against previous research?
What were their conclusions?

There's a lot more to this than solar activity and I don't think you really understand how stochastic, non-linear, multi-faceted, and complex the relationships are (nor does anyone yet tbh) or how to represent them (if they exist significantly). Yes, since the 1950s ENSO has been tied to specific phases of the solar cycle, however this relationship only holds for the past 60 years, it disintegrates in the early 20th century, but why? Your theory has to account for that, or what happens during exceptionally low activity? You have to show this...
I hope you also realize somewhat reliable instrumental records only go back to the mid 19th century, and completely miss the Dalton and Maunder minimums, so at that point you have to rely on proxy reconstructions, but they're riddled with far more uncertainty than actual observations because they assume ENSO impacts were the same now as they were centuries ago, which is true to an extent, but there's an appreciable amount of inter-event variability and even moderate-strong events can go practically undetected. If you actually have a legitimate theory" gather data, perform analysis on the data, write a paper on it and publish in a reputable journal... Feels like I'm beating a dead horse but I'll say it again, there really is no "direct", linear relationship between solar activity and ENSO. The connections are a lot more complicated than you're making them out to be and can be modified &/or completely masked by other forcing(s). You also have to understand these host of other forcings and acknowledge others you don't understand or have detected (yet), understand their evolution, relative magnitude, persistence, and temporal scales. Please go read some literature on this topic before making more claims like these...
 
Dark star crashes, pouring its light into ashes.
Reason tatters, the forces tear loose from the axis.
Searchlight casting for faults in the clouds of delusion.
Shall we go, you and I while we can

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Ultimately, yes the sun is one of the largest contributors on our climate at nearly all temporal scales, but again, the relationships are extremely convoluted, especially in the troposphere. I'll be completely honest, the physical connections with the sun are really hard for me to wrap my head around, and the field of solar science is still in its infancy relatively speaking...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Ultimately, yes the sun is one of the largest contributors on our climate at nearly all temporal scales, but again, the relationships are extremely convoluted, especially in the troposphere. I'll be completely honest, the physical connections with the sun are really hard for me to wrap my head around, and the field of solar science is still in its infancy relatively speaking...
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If you ask some people the angle past Feb 20th is too high for accumulating snow #tiredofthisdeadhorse

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SD said:
If you ask some people the angle past Feb 20th is too high for accumulating snow #tiredofthisdeadhorse
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I can direct you to another location where on 12/22 some folks say the sun angle is too high ... LOL ;)
 
Webber, there is correlation with the solar activity and the weather patterns here on Earth. My motivation of the study was to find rather ice ages occur during long duration of solar minimums. In fact they do, you know there was a mini ice age during the years 1650 and 1715 right? There was a solar minimum during those years, the minimum was called the Maunder Minimum. Yes, when I was doing my study, I did record notes in a notepad. From my study, it takes it 5-6 years for to reach the lowest solar minimum from the 11 year peak of the maximum. Then after the solar minimum, the sun starts to trend back to it's maximum and it reaches it's peak in 10-11 years. Sun spots migrate to the equator from the sun from the higher latitudes in about 11 years. As this process is occurring, the sun is going into the solar minimum as the 11 years count down. The data I observed was from a 30 year chart that showed the solar variations of minimums and maximums, that's how I came up with my answers. I believe that when there are solar maximums it warms the upper mantel of the Earth though currents known as field aligned currents and Pederson currents from sun flares that blast though space. The last lowest solar minimum was from 2009-2014, (that's one of the reason's why those winters were cold, especially winter in 2010 and 2014) but as I stated above, it starts to trend back to a maximum after the 5th-6th years from the lowest peak of minimum. I'm not making this stuff up, I really do research.
 
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Webberweather53 said:
Ultimately, yes the sun is one of the largest contributors on our climate at nearly all temporal scales, but again, the relationships are extremely convoluted, especially in the troposphere. I'll be completely honest, the physical connections with the sun are really hard for me to wrap my head around, and the field of solar science is still in its infancy relatively speaking...
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Maybe I'm wrong for this but I gave up trying to understand the suns equation in the weather a while back. The easy answer is yes but to what extreme will always be debatable.


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One of the better (IMO) solar scientist currently is Leif Svalgaard who believes the Sun has a very misunderstood and complicated relationship with our Climate. Except for extreme periods like the Dalton and Maunder minimums (which are poorly authenticated temperature wise), the Sun is relatively consistent in it's output and subsequent effects on our planet and the complexities of our stasochaotic atmospheric variables are not understood very well. Same thing can be said for Solar science as there are so many factors, known and unknown, that putting a proper quantitative analysis is difficult at best for anyone today. While much progress has been made in the fields of long range Meteorology and Climate in the past 50 years, there is probably as much we don't know as we do know. A lot of theories have been floated trying to explain periods of cold or extreme warmth (like recent history) but none can account for the differences on a consistently verifiable basis. Further record keeping and research will be helpful in this regard but I wouldn't look for a giant leap forward in long range forecasting anytime soon.
 
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Oh yeah, there's no doubt that it is misunderstood and complicated of correlation between the sun and our weather patterns. The only thing we can do is come up with theories, and theories is an idea that is possible but that doesn't mean that is actually happening or did occur.

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SnowHusky said:
Webber, there is correlation with the solar activity and the weather patterns here on Earth. My motivation of the study was to find rather ice ages occur during long duration of solar minimums. In fact they do, you know there was a mini ice age during the years 1650 and 1715 right? There was a solar minimum during those years, the minimum was called the Maunder Minimum. Yes, when I was doing my study, I did record notes in a notepad. From my study, it takes it 5-6 years for to reach the lowest solar minimum from the 11 year peak of the maximum. Then after the solar minimum, the sun starts to trend back to it's maximum and it reaches it's peak in 10-11 years. Sun spots migrate to the equator from the sun from the higher latitudes in about 11 years. As this process is occurring, the sun is going into the solar minimum as the 11 years count down. The data I observed was from a 30 year chart that showed the solar variations of minimums and maximums, that's how I came up with my answers. I believe that when there are solar maximums it warms the upper mantel of the Earth though currents known as field aligned currents and Pederson currents from sun flares that blast though space. The last lowest solar minimum was from 2009-2014, (that's one of the reason's why those winters were cold, especially winter in 2010 and 2014) but as I stated above, it starts to trend back to a maximum after the 5th-6th years from the lowest peak of minimum. I'm not making this stuff up, I really do research.
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There's a relationship, but you really didn't find anything convincing...

"Sun spots migrate to the equator from the sun from the higher latitudes in about 11 years. As this process is occurring, the sun is going into the solar minimum as the 11 years count down. The data I observed was from a 30 year chart that showed the solar variations of minimums and maximums, that's how I came up with my answers."
First of all, Don, most scientists are already well aware of the 11-year Hale Cycle, you're not doing any ground breaking work there.


"you know there was a mini ice age during the years 1650 and 1715 right? There was a solar minimum during those years, the minimum was called the Maunder Minimum."

So you only chose one event (the little ice age) to establish this relationship? Yea, that's not going to cut it... You need more samples (at least 30-40 +) to begin to acquire statistical significance.

"Yes, when I was doing my study, I did record notes in a notepad."

Again, there's nothing terribly amazing about this either, literally anybody can take notes in a notebook... That doesn't qualify as a rigorous analysis, at least the kind that I would expect given the kind of data you're working with...


"I believe that when there are solar maximums it warms the upper mantel of the Earth though currents known as field aligned currents and Pederson currents from sun flares that blast though space."
I honestly don't understand what you're talking about here... Aside from the egregious spelling errors, if you're actually going to come up w/ a legitimate theory and not get laughed at by the rest of the scientific community, "I believe ____" doesn't cut it wrt establishing physical mechanisms. You actually need to perform a multitude of studies, analysis, and they have to be verifiable and reproducible...


Again, you didn't real come up with a "theory", at best this is a poorly misconstrued hypothesis...
Scientific Theory- "... a well-substantiated explanation of some aspect of the natural world, based on a body of facts that have been repeatedly confirmed through observation and experiment"

I'll ask again what dataset did you use, what papers did you reference, what were their conclusions, etc. because I don't see any of those in your response.
 
Not trying to be rude, and there are some smart ppl on here, but me for one, will not argue about weather sun angle, any other aspect of weather with someone like Webber. He's far more, way more knowledgeable and knows his stuff to be arguing with. I learn alot off his teaching and Larry's also.
 
Anyone notice that the intensity of the cold on the 12Z consensus as well as the 18Z GFS was reduced? I fear that this is a sign that when all is said and done that the ongoing strong cold model bias means that early March won't be all that cold after all in the SE. I hope not but am worried.
 
GaWx said:
Anyone notice that the intensity of the cold on the 12Z consensus as well as the 18Z GFS was reduced? I fear that this is a sign that when all is said and done that the ongoing strong cold model bias means that early March won't be all that cold after all in the SE. I hope not but am worried.
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Welcome aboard - but you are more vocal than I :(
 
I've always read about how both the Dalton and Maunder mins correlated to a colder global climate. I have never researched those periods extensively enough to construct a scientific paper. But if what I've read is indeed true, then any sort of upcoming solar period that is similar to those would compel me to think we should expect a cooler regime during those events...even with such a small historical sample size from which to draw an adequate comparison.
 
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