• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Microwave March

pcbjr said:
You beat JB, LC, DT and a host of others .... Kudos!

Now - please find some way to make next winter resemble the season! ;)
Click to expand...
How'd the wooly worm forecast do?
 
SD said:
The Euro control really wants to suck me in for something around 3/10.....I wont allow it!
Click to expand...
For us to have winter weather in March, there will have to be a strong push of below normal air. I am not getting too interested until we get closer to time. I feel like we have passed our window for any substantial winter event. Of course, things can happen.
 
Portions of the SE will see a freeze that could kill the early gardening season between late March into the first week of April. Regardless of what the weather is like now.

Sucks, and really puts a wrench into my garden planning. But I always bet on one from history.
 
What's crazy is that Dallas has not seen a freeze since January 8th. Could their last freeze really be January 8th ?!?!?
 
be3bb26e9665efbd1d035715d6696fee.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
bouncycorn said:
be3bb26e9665efbd1d035715d6696fee.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Thanks for posting this. Eyeballing this tells me there's very little correlation of QBO amplitude/sign, alone, and ATL wintertime temperatures. The warmer than normal and colder than normal look pretty balanced in number no matter what is the QBO. Are you seeing the same thing? This is pretty much the reason I've never used the QBO to predict the winter though I had never seen it analyzed to the extent you did.
 
Last edited:
SD said:
Here comes my boo for 3/10
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_52.png
Click to expand...
That looks more like Madea's boo!
Don't focus on temps right now, we got plenty of time to trend colder, or it can make its own cold air! :)
 
GaWx said:
Thanks for posting this. Eyeballing this tells me there's very little correlation of QBO amplitude/sign, alone, and ATL wintertime temperatures. The warmer than normal and colder than normal look pretty balanced in number no matter what is the QBO. Are you seeing the same thing? This is pretty much the reason I've never used the QBO to predict the winter though I had never seen it analyzed to the extent you did.
Click to expand...

Yep. There's also very little correlation between PDO and Niño 3.4. The R^2 of each with atl winter temps is like -0.17 and -0.09 respectively.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
deltadog03 said:
Great job Webber for sure. I thought we would end up above normal but not this much. Lol hope we can get more rain soon though. Next year I'm going blowtorch all winter and see how that works. Lol
Click to expand...

Yes, great job Webber, indeed!

I predict most will go cold next winter for the E US as is often the case. JB has all but already told us this with his Modoki Nino and quieting sun comments, which in his case is no surprise. He has been horrible the last 2 winters. He will need actual cold winters to do well in almost all cases. With the sun continuing to get quieter through at east 2019-20, it is quite likely that jB will go cold much of the E US for the next 3+ winters.
 
Last edited:
I would hope for a return to a normal winter next winter temperature wise. The occasional 60 and 70 degree days happen every winter but multiple weeks of 70 degree temps is just not right.
 
The 12Z GFS has warmth ending 3/1. Some warm winter analogs favor a cold March. But the GFS has been horribly cold biased. A forecasting dilemna to say the least! For entertainment and record: It has a major deep SE snowstorm 3/8-9. Don't laugh as I'm just a messenger lol though history says that happens every so often.
 
Well, I found something interesting on the GFS. Too bad it's in an area in which I wouldn't trust it at all (past 300).
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z GFS has warmth ending 3/1. Some warm winter analogs favor a cold March. But the GFS has been horribly cold biased. A forecasting dilemna to say the least! For entertainment and record: It has a major deep SE snowstorm 3/8-9. Don't laugh as I'm just a messenger lol though history says that happens every so often.
Click to expand...
I saw this too, that's SD's boo right there! Seriously though this could be something too watch.... GFS certainly had the cold and a great storm track but alas it's out there in voodoo land
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top