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Tropical Melissa

There are 3 Atlantic basin hurricanes on record on this date or later that were cat 5 and they had these lowest pressures/highest sustained winds:

-Mitch of 1998: Oct 26-28; 905 mb/180 mph; but landfall was way down at 80 mph on Honduras. The extreme rainfall though was what made it so deadly.

-Hattie of 1961: Oct 31; 914 mb/165 mph; it weakened slightly at landfall in Belize to 915 mb/150 mph (cat 4)

-Cuba hurricane of 1932: Nov 5-8; 915 mb/175 mph; but it weakened some before hitting land as it was 150/cat 4 on landfall

The latest on record cat 5 landfall was on Cuba on Oct 19 (in 1924) near its peak intensity of 165 mph. So, IF this were to hit Jamaica as a cat 5, it would become the latest on record to make landfall anywhere by 9 days.
 
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I’m going to rage if they’re turning back for good. We need a center pass!!


 
Stormsfury said:
Something happened to the plane. Definitely appears to be an aborted mission.
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I just read at 2 other boards that they may not be leaving but instead they may just be taking a different path of sorts. Anyone know?
 
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Mandeville Jamaica has a population of 50k and is at 2000ft elevation fairly close to the south central coast....if Melissa comes in on the forecasted path they literally could get the center.
 
Downeastnc said:
Mandeville Jamaica has a population of 50k and is at 2000ft elevation fairly close to the south central coast....if Melissa comes in on the forecasted path they literally could get the center.
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That's where Icyclones base is. Some pretty fancy hotel
 
Brent said:
That's where Icyclones base is. Some pretty fancy hotel
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Hopefully Josh doesn’t end up in anything like the danger he faced in his chases of Haiyan (2013 Philippines) and Dorian (2019 Marsh Harbour). He could have died in those from the extreme storm surges. With Melissa, there’s the added extreme flooding and landslides danger from epic rainfall. It really is scary to think about, but he thrives on living on the edge and that’s putting it mildly!
 
GaWx said:
Hopefully Josh doesn’t end up in anything like the danger he faced in his chases of Haiyan (2013 Philippines) and Dorian (2019 Marsh Harbour). He could have died in those from the extreme storm surges. With Melissa, there’s the added extreme flooding and landslides danger from epic rainfall. It really is scary to think about, but he thrives on living on the edge and that’s putting it mildly!
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Definitely going to be a harrowing ride. If anyone can survive it, it’s Josh. He’s made for storms like this and I don’t think anyone has more experience out there.

This could be the closest thing to Dorian we’ve seen since
 
Judging by the hurricane models. This has about ~24 hours left over water before Jamaica. Hopefully we can get an ERC during that time. I feel good about there being one and knocking it down a bit.
 
161 kt flight level winds, 167 kt SFMR. 903 mb.
529
URNT15 KNHC 271551
AF308 2013A MELISSA HDOB 45 20251027
154200 1630N 07804W 6963 02912 9768 +098 +072 132097 099 088 009 00
154230 1629N 07805W 6975 02861 9728 +100 +072 130108 112 096 008 00
154300 1628N 07806W 6972 02814 9674 +098 +072 127120 124 103 008 00
154330 1627N 07807W 6974 02744 9611 +085 +074 126138 148 123 020 00
154400 1626N 07807W 6951 02674 9505 +082 +076 127153 161 149 044 00
154430 1625N 07808W 6959 02552 9364 +104 +083 130145 160 167 002 03
154500 1624N 07809W 7010 02369 9195 +161 +088 127099 129 167 002 03
154530 1622N 07809W 6955 02381 9095 +216 +084 135042 078 128 006 00
154600 1621N 07811W 6977 02357 9068 +247 +080 195007 033 068 001 00
154630 1620N 07812W 6970 02367 9071 +247 +084 307013 018 022 000 00
154700 1620N 07814W 6967 02374 9082 +238 +095 338026 031 022 000 03
154730 1621N 07815W 6966 02382 9103 +213 +100 013039 043 /// /// 03
154800 1622N 07814W 6974 02348 9072 +230 +085 046026 039 057 001 03
154830 1623N 07812W 6967 02355 9062 +239 +074 113016 022 051 002 03
154900 1621N 07811W 6972 02359 9069 +244 +057 180012 019 /// /// 03
154930 1620N 07812W 6966 02365 9061 +252 +051 253007 012 /// /// 03
155000 1621N 07814W 6969 02351 9056 +246 +067 044012 021 /// /// 03
155030 1623N 07814W 6980 02351 9084 +222 +098 059045 058 090 000 00
155100 1624N 07814W 6968 02410 9162 +181 +121 068088 102 151 000 00
155130 1625N 07814W 6969 02481 9247 +132 //// 069126 138 163 003 01
$$
;
 
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