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Tropical Melissa

Brent said:
The one I saw earlier was leaving because I guess he didn't want to get stuck. The airports were closing tonight

Icyclone is going to Cuba I think
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I don't know if I'd want to be in Jamaica for this one. I did see Tornado Paigy said her and her fiance were going after I posted my question. Not sure if they made it down or not.
 
Gopack42 said:
I don't know if I'd want to be in Jamaica for this one. I did see Tornado Paigy said her and her fiance were going after I posted my question. Not sure if they made it down or not.
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Yeah even Cuba I'm not sure... Their infrastructure is still poor and honestly I think they still force everyone to evacuate basically. Nobody is gonna be there to help if you get stuck

This just doesn't seem like a good one to chase. Theres way too many things that can go wrong
 
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6Z Euro is very similar to the 0Z with strongest again at 968 S of C Jamaica, 988 near Kingston, and sharp right turn to E tip of Jamaica exiting at 992.
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025

...MELISSA NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AND FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
THIS WEEKEND...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 75.0W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES
 
Brent said:
Hurricane any minute nowView attachment 175671
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8:27 AM EDT: 986 mb very near H status


943
URNT12 KWBC 251227
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL132025
A. 25/12:03:08Z
B. 16.41 deg N 074.88 deg W
C. NA
D. 986 mb
E. 195 deg 16 kt
F. OPEN SW
G. C18
H. NA
I. NA
J. 167 deg 65 kt
K. 067 deg 10 nm 12:00:31Z
L. NA
M. NA
N. 325 deg 46 kt
O. 242 deg 13 nm 12:06:34Z
P. 14 C / 2460 m
Q. 21 C / 2443 m
R. 15 C / NA
S. 12345 / NA
T. 0.01 / 1 nm
U. NOAA2 1113A MELISSA OB 14
MAX FL WIND 68 KT 299 / 16 NM 10:47:30Z
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025

...MELISSA NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AND FORECAST TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY THIS WEEKEND...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 75.1W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES
 
12Z GFS is the furthest west run yet with it going NNE over Kingston at 969 while strengthening during the 6 hour crossover. Kingston gets 35”!
 
12Z Euro: goes back to an extent to the pre 0Z/6Z runs by being a bit further S of Jamaica thus helping it to get stronger (962) and thus it hits Jamaica at 971 instead of 986-8. It then goes back to a NE move over Jamaica and exits at 977 vs 992 of 0Z/6Z. As a result, the 20” line goes back further W to center of Jamaica.
 
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