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FXUS64 KFWD 101838
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
138 PM CDT Tue May 10 2022
...New Long Term...
Late this weekend and early next week, a stout
ridge will develop
over the SW
CONUS and northern Mexico. This pattern usually lends
to well above
normal warmth for North and Central Texas and next
week should be no different. Just about all of the global
ensemble
contextual tools we have are pointing toward temperatures ramping
up in the 6-12 day range. The
ECMWF Shift of Tails index indicates
that at least 10% of the
ECMWF ensemble members exceed the
climo
extreme for afternoon high temperature Thursday of this week
through Tuesday of next week. Extending beyond that, the NAEFS
and
ECMWF mean guidance`s low level temperatures are in the 97th
percentile for this time of the year. Moreover, the NBM`s
probabilistic guidance is also indicating well above
normal warmth
with 100F at DFW looking more
likely than not (up to 51% compared
to 46% yesterday) in the mid to late parts of next week. It is
worth noting that all of these data are derived from global
ensembles, which often lack the vertical and horizontal resolution
to resolve convective-influenced boundaries. If outflows from
Friday`s storms were able to develop additional storms through the
weekend, it would
mean temperatures remaining more regulated, but
still in the low-mid 90s.