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Pattern May Thread

70 and sunshine . Now why the hell did yesterday happen . It can be below average feel good at the same time . That’s a thing you know so why tf man.
 
NorthDFWwx said:
It's bad when temps nearly 15 degrees below normal is "beautiful."
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Our average highs are still in the upper 70s now so while it’s a few degrees below average…it’s nothing out of the ordinary. Low to mid 40s for lows tonight is another story
 
Lickwx said:
70 and sunshine . Now why the hell did yesterday happen . It can be below average feel good at the same time . That’s a thing you know so why tf man.
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Yesterday just completely sucked. I’ve said it before, I’m a fan of all seasons. Ironically enough my afternoon high yesterday was only about 5 degrees warmer that the average for New Year’s Day while the high this past New Year’s Day was only 2 degrees cooler than my average for yesterday. I hated the weather on both days equally. I have as much use for a day in the 50s in May as a day in the 70s in January.
 
Chazwin said:
Yesterday just completely sucked. I’ve said it before, I’m a fan of all seasons. Ironically enough my afternoon high yesterday was only about 5 degrees warmer that the average for New Year’s Day while the high this past New Year’s Day was only 2 degrees cooler than my average for yesterday. I hated the weather on both days equally. I have as much use for a day in the 50s in May as a day in the 70s in January.
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I didn't think it felt that bad outside yesterday but it was ugly. Wish we could have had a true noreaster with a driving rain to make it more acceptable. I'm just happy the low got far enough offshore and we pulled in enough dry air that today has been very nice, I was really concerned we would lock into stratus yesterday and not lose it until late in the week
 
Chazwin said:
Our average highs are still in the upper 70s now so while it’s a few degrees below average…it’s nothing out of the ordinary. Low to mid 40s for lows tonight is another story
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For some reason, I saw an 84*F when I looked up the climate data earlier. I see now it's really 79*F.

Still, it's nearly 10 degrees below normal (more than a few, IMO).
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Mid May is trending warmer due to the pacific jet speeding up more/GOAK trough becoming more progressive. Same exact thing happened in mid-late April, need to be careful or we could find ourselves in a torch again because the more we speed up the jet, the more we release the airmass from the CUS View attachment 118279View attachment 118280
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Much more concerned about the almost complete lack of rain across the Deep South over the next two weeks. We have to dry out to get really hot. This spring and summer is really reminiscent of 2016 which had a really nice spring until mid-May when the oven turned on and the rain stopped.

Hello to 95-97 with a 70 degree dew point and no rain for nearly three months.
 
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Today's high at DFW was 93*F.

Also, FWD is calling for temps in the 90s throughout the entire 7-day forecast.
 
It’s hot and it sucks! Went from winter to summer ! 86 with a DP of 65??
 
I think i was getting more acclimated as the day went on lol it didn't bother me as much later this afternoon. The wind definitely helped

But still what didn't help was yeah until a few days ago it was still chilly
 
?

000
FXUS64 KFWD 101838
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
138 PM CDT Tue May 10 2022

...New Long Term...

Late this weekend and early next week, a stout ridge will develop
over the SW CONUS and northern Mexico. This pattern usually lends
to well above normal warmth for North and Central Texas and next
week should be no different. Just about all of the global ensemble
contextual tools we have are pointing toward temperatures ramping
up in the 6-12 day range. The ECMWF Shift of Tails index indicates
that at least 10% of the ECMWF ensemble members exceed the climo
extreme for afternoon high temperature Thursday of this week
through Tuesday of next week. Extending beyond that, the NAEFS
and ECMWF mean guidance`s low level temperatures are in the 97th
percentile for this time of the year. Moreover, the NBM`s
probabilistic guidance is also indicating well above normal warmth
with 100F at DFW looking more likely than not (up to 51% compared
to 46% yesterday) in the mid to late parts of next week. It is
worth noting that all of these data are derived from global
ensembles, which often lack the vertical and horizontal resolution
to resolve convective-influenced boundaries. If outflows from
Friday`s storms were able to develop additional storms through the
weekend, it would mean temperatures remaining more regulated, but
still in the low-mid 90s.
 
Trending to some solid heat for May standards around day 7-14, EPS mean highs are right at 90F around CLT for a few days now, big warming trend on it the last day FB3E5616-0DBD-40EE-A34F-9C7E34880573.gifA61D5D58-9C12-4E9A-AE41-BCF5CFF620A8.pngD57024BD-07B8-4235-B6FD-82273E5E494F.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
EPS mean of 91 with several members in the mid/upper 90s ? View attachment 118319
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Yeah, I think any cool weather is pretty much done; just that time of year. I'll be counting down to met Fall by the end of the month. Heck, even upper 70s with full sun today is too hot for me. On to summer...


Well... actually not too bad after the 19th, here's a decent little front... long ways off

1652215289067.png
 
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Today's high at DFW was 92*F.

The fact that we're also getting this warm each day despite recurring morning stratus and the high dewpoints is also impressive.
 
Edited to add that this worry is not based on anything other than the fact that I am almost two weeks from the last rain and not seeing anything promising over the next 7 days.
 
JTR said:
Edited to add that this worry is not based on anything other than the fact that I am almost two weeks from the last rain and not seeing anything promising over the next 7 days.
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Just curious… what’s your location? A lot of us east of the Mississippi have had some decent rainfall in the last week
 
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