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Pattern May Thread

EmersonGA said:
.02” and the afternoon looks like crap now. I’m about to go all Shetley in here.
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Hate to say you could see this coming. The last three major systems have all died before getting here. I can't wait to see the look of bewilder on Glen Burns face this afternoon. This is definitely the beginning of what I hope is not a major drought.
 
J.C. said:
Hate to say you could see this coming. The last three major systems have all died before getting here. I can't wait to see the look of bewilder on Glen Burns face this afternoon. This is definitely the beginning of what I hope is not a major drought.
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I told my wife last night I had a feeling this would be a big fail. This is how droughts start.
 
MHX hinting at the low retrograding back inland over the SE and taking us from to little to too much rain....

"Thursday through Saturday...The low will slide southward off
the Southeast coast Thursday, then potentially retrograde back
over land by Friday and Saturday, finally allowing local winds
and swells to subside. This pattern brings the potential for a
conveyor belt of deep layer moisture advection to set up over
ENC late week into next weekend, which could be beneficial for
improving the ongoing drought, but will also have to be
monitored for potential flooding threats. Temps return near to
above normal late week."
 
After a brief reprieve late next weekend / early the following week, 12z GFS brings the heat right back in until the end of this run, woth another "cool down."

Still not showing a ton of rain opportunities either...
 
Today's looking like it might be a bust temp-wise. DFW's only at 79*F as of 1pm.

We've been socked in stratus much of the morning. It tried to scatter out between 11am and 12pm, but has filled back in.
 
NorthDFWwx said:
Today's looking like it might be a bust temp-wise. DFW's only at 79*F as of 1pm.

We've been socked in stratus much of the morning. It tried to scatter out between 11am and 12pm, but has filled back in.
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Heh. Actually warmer than forecast here at 79

Dewpoint has creeped up to 61. It's really gonna get gross tomorrow

?

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NorthDFWwx said:
Stratus is now finally mixing out. DFW was st 87*F as of 3pm.

The real story seems to be the dewpoints though. Widespread low/mid-70s.
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Yeah I mean the highs really aren't that insane(maybe the long stretch is but Tulsa usually has first 90 around now so that part isn't crazy) the real story is the humidity. My lows coming are 74/75 which is more like peak summer here
 
NorthDFWwx said:
Stratus is now finally mixing out. DFW was st 87*F as of 3pm.

The real story seems to be the dewpoints though. Widespread low/mid-70s.
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When you have these kind of anomalies you will have higher dews.

cfce6173704d77a80086aaafcbdec06f.jpg



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Brent said:
Yeah I mean the highs really aren't that insane(maybe the long stretch is but Tulsa usually has first 90 around now so that part isn't crazy) the real story is the humidity. My lows coming are 74/75 which is more like peak summer here
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I've noticed more humidity here for the summer the last few years with the extreme heat north of here.


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Been thundering here for hours and the rain has basically been reforming in the exact same spots all afternoon. Just will not move.

Screenshot_20220507-171036_WeatherBug.jpg
 
NorthDFWwx said:
Today's looking like it might be a bust temp-wise. DFW's only at 79*F as of 1pm.

We've been socked in stratus much of the morning. It tried to scatter out between 11am and 12pm, but has filled back in.
Click to expand...

Unless we get an intra-hour high, it seems DFW gonna get 89'd.

Forecast high was 94*F yesterday, and it was lowered to 92*F this morning (still too warm).
 
And it looks like we'll escape the heat/humidity that's to our west. Looking at the 6z GFS we basically stay nice/cool(ish) right out to around day 14 or so. In the short term the low off our coast is saving us from the current central US warmth. Here's dew points for Wednesday:
1652016769367.png
 
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