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May be?

Btw if you didn’t look at the 12z euro, it had absolutely insane High temperatures for June 1st, highs barely getting in the mid 60s and 850s around 3-5C, this is stuff you get in early March and personally imo it can ---- off, I need the pool to warm up once I get out of this damn quarantine AC471E8C-BFE4-421B-A7A2-4402539A8ACF.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Btw if you didn’t look at the 12z euro, it had absolutely insane High temperatures for June 1st, highs barely getting in the mid 60s and 850s around 3-5C, this is stuff you get in early March and personally imo it can poop off, I need the pool to warm up once I get out of this damn quarantine View attachment 42144
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sun is great ... but skin cancer is a side-effect ... moderation in excess rather than excess in moderation ... :cool:
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Btw if you didn’t look at the 12z euro, it had absolutely insane High temperatures for June 1st, highs barely getting in the mid 60s and 850s around 3-5C, this is stuff you get in early March and personally imo it can poop off, I need the pool to warm up once I get out of this damn quarantine View attachment 42144
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I can remember it being this cool in early June one time early in the 90’s. At the time Carowinds held a graduation night opening for seniors that had just walked and that year I remember WBTV reports from Carowinds and everyone was wearing hoodies, jeans, and winter hats... lows got down into the upper 40s
 
ryan1234 said:
Can you please stop spreading false information? It doesn't do anyone any good. People come to this website to learn, not to be told inaccurate information. We have had a lot of rain over the last 2 weeks, you act like it hasn't rained since March. The Upstate and the Western/Central Carolina's have had more than their fair share of rain. You act as though we are in a full drought. Just chiilll out, please.
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Shetley is definitely a rain lover. If it is not physically falling from the sky when he posts then the droughts on baby!
 
Rain Cold said:
3k rock solid bringing the heaviest precip up through central NC. Hard to believe the Euro is so far off, though.
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posted on this earlier...Euro has heavy precip up the GA/SC the next 6 hours and the radar has nothing at the moment. So odd to see the Euro this far off.



A7F89705-A982-44A7-B3E1-4A3C2658E75A.png
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Well, GFS had it on a Hurricane Fran track (Wilmington to Raleigh) and instead it takes the Hurricane Hugo track (Bulls Bay to Charlotte)
 
KyloG said:
Euro caved over night. Been just awful with this setup the past couple of days.

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GFS wasn’t great either. It had the bullseye much too far east (Raleigh and points eastward). As it stands this track splits the difference between Euro and GFS/NAM, and to Euro’s credit it was the first to sniff out a more western track even if it went overboard.
 
Epic fail for the Euro on this, looks like high res models and GFS did fairly well overall with the track inside 48-72 hours.
 
blueheronNC said:
GFS wasn’t great either. It had the bullseye much too far east (Raleigh and points eastward). As it stands this track splits the difference between Euro and GFS/NAM, and to Euro’s credit it was the first to sniff out a more western track even if it went overboard.
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GFS was in the ball park, the NAM was the best...the Euro was complete garbage, it was tracking this into central GA. 12z Euro run from yesterday compared to the 3km NAM. The NAM might be 20 miles to far east, the Euro is 300 miles to far west. There is no splitting the difference on this for the Euro.



ecmwf-deterministic-se-precip_24hr_inch-0645600.png

nam-nest-conus-carolinas-precip_24hr_inch-0645600.png
 
King EURO did however show Bertha possibility awhile back while others refused. Gotta remember the King is better at medium to long range IMO. Occasionally NAM works 1 to 2 days out.
 
Long range models seem to be okay at sniffing out the big picture, but aren't what they used to be for specifics and tracks. Have to wait for the NAM and other short range models 48 hours out to really know what's going to happen. Can't plan on anything more than 48 hours out these days.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Long range models seem to be okay at sniffing out the big picture, but aren't what they used to be for specifics and tracks. Have to wait for the NAM and other short range models 48 hours out to really know what's going to happen. Can't plan on anything more than 48 hours out these days.
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Lol. The dudes above are calling the NAM King when it shows a sprinkle despite there being flash flood watches along i77. NAM has done terrible and will constantly adjust too.
 
Miami approaching 19” for the month after dealing with 50+ wildfires in the state.
 
One positive, while low temps have been warm high temps have been gegnerally cooler than normal. However, day after day we are overperforming ! Its 77 right now when 73 and rain was called for . Dew of 67 so muggy as well.
 
2% tor/2% damaging winds tomorrow, tomorrow evening looks favorable for wet microbursts and some minor shear for organization 43D86B46-BCF8-4C6F-91E5-F858B6D462E2.png1B150A4D-0E0C-4221-A18A-2940048F5E21.png
 
If we get any wet microbursts tomorrow, especially if the convection becomes more organized trees are going to be dropping like flies. Not good considering the excessive damage the Charlotte metro saw last week.
 
Hrrr looks decent, perfect soundings for wet microbursts given the large planetary boundary layer moisture and then dry air entrainment aloft for stronger downdrafts, add big PWATs to help the process of water loading, and oh yeah DCAPE over 1000 joules is sufficient for stronger downdrafts, those surface dews tomorrow are disgusting 0E495F3F-3B4A-4EDA-9885-1435B4DE47E8.png571FEABF-180F-4FBB-8992-D098B116F0AB.pngC7E8A2C8-F5C7-478F-8403-63EB7FDDF9B9.png
 
I can see why they added a 2% tor given storm relative helicity around 1km and 3km will hover around a hundred given the increase in 3km shear and 30-40kts of mid level flow, parameters are somewhat similar to last Friday
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I can see why they added a 2% tor given storm relative helicity around 1km and 3km will hover around a hundred given the increase in 3km shear and 30-40kts of mid level flow, parameters are somewhat similar to last Friday
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Yeah, I was just going to mention some of the similarities from last Friday. Definitely need to stay weather aware tomorrow, especially if you have lots of trees around your house which is a good bet considering our tree canopy. Also, I could see some more hydro issues. Our soils just can't handle any more water.
 
Lol nam for Friday was just drunk, not only is there large BL moisture but lapse rates are approaching 7C, that would support very large hail given the mid level flow, but the nam is notorious for this, but there is hints that some EML air will try to make it here Friday which in response would increase lapse rates 8CA02B11-C3C4-4107-B4D7-34203F196FB0.png88271F42-A222-4F76-AC9C-D289AAC204A6.png36E77A6E-AB62-4F3C-9828-A60846FEE384.png
 
Tornado Warning for Wake County

Tornado Warning
NCC037-085-183-272145-
/O.NEW.KRAH.TO.W.0021.200527T2055Z-200527T2145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
455 PM EDT Wed May 27 2020

The National Weather Service in Raleigh has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
North central Harnett County in central North Carolina...
Southwestern Wake County in central North Carolina...
East central Chatham County in central North Carolina...

* Until 545 PM EDT.

* At 454 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Angier, or 12 miles northeast of Lillington,
moving northwest at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Fuquay-Varina around 510 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Crosswinds Boating Center, Jordan Lake State Rec Area, Seaforth Boat
Dock, Crosswinds Campground and New Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3557 7864 3552 7871 3552 7870 3549 7873
3566 7912 3587 7889 3586 7889
TIME...MOT...LOC 2054Z 132DEG 18KT 3556 7872

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...0.00IN
 
This is a good example of why I wish we didn't have a separate board for tropical stuff. We're talking about the storms from Bertha on both boards now.

Anyway, is anyone under a tornado watch now?
 
Brick Tamland said:
This is a good example of why I wish we didn't have a separate board for tropical stuff. We're talking about the storms from Bertha on both boards now.

Anyway, is anyone under a tornado watch now?
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One set of disco seems to be macro and the other more or less micro (IMBY) ... but it would be nice if all TS related discussion was in one place ... but ... heard cats? or birds?
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Tomorrow looking stormy from Georgia into Charlotte NC.
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Models showed that earlier in week and many suggested it. You said you weren't buying amounts of rain this week. We have had over 2 inches in Winston again today and still have moderate to heavy rain now.
 
POWERSTROKE said:
Models showed that earlier in week and many suggested it. You said you weren't buying amounts of rain this week. We have had over 2 inches in Winston again today and still have moderate to heavy rain now.
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Because some said a repeat of 6-12” I said no. I said 1-2” and anyone over 2” would likely be mtns. I had much better forecast than those who were calling for massive amounts and floods.
 
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