• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Marvelous March

I must admit here in ATL I'm not even holding on to the slightest glimmers of hope at this point. Rather watching for fun. I feel like, if anything, there might be a slight chance for a swath of light to moderate snow accums across parts of the NC piedmont or coastal plain, maybe parts of SC, once the low strengthens off the NC coast... but I think we can already stick a fork in this down here in GA and AL. NC might do the same in a couple days lol.
 
I was under the impression that these "cold pushes" have been overdone all season though, and we'd likely see more relaxation to allow a NW shift as we get closer... still okay to watch until 24 hours out, but eh.
 
Shawn said:
I was under the impression that these "cold pushes" have been overdone all season though, and we'd likely see more relaxation to allow a NW shift as we get closer... still okay to watch until 24 hours out, but eh.
Click to expand...

Yeah, that's why I think the chance for "some snow" is non-zero in NC and SC. But if the cold push is too overdone then this could hypothetically simply be rain for everyone.
 
The storm in New England that initially wasn't forecast to do much of anything and slide harmlessly out to sea will now attempt to bomb out and interact w/ our big PV lobe over SE Canada by about day 3, we'd need to see dramatic intensification of this storm in future runs and interaction with the vortex to even have any hope whatsoever.

gfs_z500a_namer_fh66_trend.gif
 
snowlover91 said:
GFS actually has flurries now lol. It’s a small improvement.
View attachment 16978
Click to expand...

Myfrotho704_ said:
What I’m wondering is whether we can get a band of snow to develop like some of the gefs ensemble members have picked up on, if that energy could just dive more SW or west just a tiny bit more, at least us in NC/SC can get a convective snow band to form, it’s evident by the sounding that it would be convective, but like you said it’s not to be expected atm
View attachment 16979View attachment 16976
Click to expand...

Gotta be careful with blue showing up on 6 hour precipitation rate maps that follow storms/fronts. It’s cold enough for snow, but the model is using the 6 hour precip from the prior 6 hours. So the more likely situation is drizzle that dries up in the 6 hours prior and no frozen precip at all as it would be dry in the depicted time on the modeling...

That sounding has no moisture in it so there wouldn’t actually be anything to freeze


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
snowlover91 said:
UK back with a decent coastal.
GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif
Click to expand...
That Ukie map is massively different with the trough than any other model and if it was the GFS I wouldn't even give it a second glance.... but the UK is not horrible with it's forecast at the H5 level, can sometimes sniff something out. I'm probably like @Myfrotho704_ and being too optimistic but until it caves completely I'll continue to follow it, what else is there to follow? Lol
 
Jon said:
Gotta be careful with blue showing up on 6 hour precipitation rate maps that follow storms/fronts. It’s cold enough for snow, but the model is using the 6 hour precip from the prior 6 hours. So the more likely situation is drizzle that dries up in the 6 hours prior and no frozen precip at all as it would be dry in the depicted time on the modeling...

That sounding has no moisture in it so there wouldn’t actually be anything to freeze


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Yep that's a good point. Considering it was very light I didn't even bother looking at soundings to see what the moisture profile looks like. I only pull those out when there is something of substance to look at them for and so far there hasn't been in a few days for wave 2.
 
metwannabe said:
That Ukie map is massively different with the trough than any other model and if it was the GFS I wouldn't even give it a second glance.... but the UK is not horrible with it's forecast at the H5 level, can sometimes sniff something out. I'm probably like @Myfrotho704_ and being too optimistic but until it caves completely I'll continue to follow it, what else is there to follow? Lol
Click to expand...

Cold rain? :D Seriously though it is interesting that the UK is showing this stronger coastal. We've seen with the stronger storm the NE is about to get how much the models have struggled with it. Here's what the GEFS showed 72 hours out for that storm. Notice a weak low near Bermuda...
1551448037194.png

And now just 36 hours out we have this.
1551448068309.png
 
snowlover91 said:
Cold rain? :D Seriously though it is interesting that the UK is showing this stronger coastal. We've seen with the stronger storm the NE is about to get how much the models have struggled with it. Here's what the GEFS showed 72 hours out for that storm. Notice a weak low near Bermuda...
View attachment 17016

And now just 36 hours out we have this.
View attachment 17017
Click to expand...
If we do somehow get this thing back into play, what are temps looking like? Think I'm around 35 Monday night, then 21 Tuesday night
 
These PVs, troughs, and storms/storm tracks have trended all winter. I don't recall very much accuracy beyond 24 hours this year. This situation may, in fact, defy the seasonal trends and end up expertly modeled at 6 days, and the trough ends up as shown from 6 days and the storm develops as shown from 6 days and the storm tracks exactly as shown from 6 days, etc. But that certainly hasn't been the case much this year. Troughs and PVs and heights have almost always trended weaker/shallower/farther west all the way in. Maybe this one bucks, but IMO, it still bears watching closely.

Also, we may need to think about how we name monthly pattern threads next year. Fabulous February, Marvelous March, and so forth aren't getting the job done. We might need to go in a different direction with something like Delusional December, Jacked up January, February Failboat, March Mehness, etc.
 
Rain Cold said:
These PVs, troughs, and storms/storm tracks have trended all winter. I don't recall very much accuracy beyond 24 hours this year. This situation may, in fact, defy the seasonal trends and end up expertly modeled at 6 days, and the trough ends up as shown from 6 days and the storm develops as shown from 6 days and the storm tracks exactly as shown from 6 days, etc. But that certainly hasn't been the case much this year. Troughs and PVs and heights have almost always trended weaker/shallower/farther west all the way in. Maybe this one bucks, but IMO, it still bears watching closely.

Also, we may need to think about how we name monthly pattern threads next year. Fabulous February, Marvelous March, and so forth aren't getting the job done. We might need to go in a different direction with something like Delusional December, Jacked up January, February Failboat, March Mehness, etc.
Click to expand...
Can you put the lid back on that can or worms please? Thanks ;)
 
Sleet City USA said:
If we do somehow get this thing back into play, what are temps looking like? Think I'm around 35 Monday night, then 21 Tuesday night
Click to expand...

A lot would depend on how far west the system comes, how amped it is and how far south the cold gets. If it comes west enough to bring decent qpf with it then temps will be warmer and we will need to see if we have enough cold for snow to work with... It's a fine line with this storm. There are a few stronger GEFS members that show rain changing to snow with a storm right along the SC/NC coast.
 
Rain Cold said:
These PVs, troughs, and storms/storm tracks have trended all winter. I don't recall very much accuracy beyond 24 hours this year. This situation may, in fact, defy the seasonal trends and end up expertly modeled at 6 days, and the trough ends up as shown from 6 days and the storm develops as shown from 6 days and the storm tracks exactly as shown from 6 days, etc. But that certainly hasn't been the case much this year. Troughs and PVs and heights have almost always trended weaker/shallower/farther west all the way in. Maybe this one bucks, but IMO, it still bears watching closely.

Also, we may need to think about how we name monthly pattern threads next year. Fabulous February, Marvelous March, and so forth aren't getting the job done. We might need to go in a different direction with something like Delusional December, Jacked up January, February Failboat, March Mehness, etc.
Click to expand...

March madness ?
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yeh, just a few members but it’s interesting how some still show it..... although most are pretty light
View attachment 17018
Click to expand...

Yeah but they are improved over the 00z run a little bit... still a long ways to go on this one but if we can get a little luck on our side maybe we can see this one drop some token flakes... is that really too much to ask for?
 
Rain Cold said:
These PVs, troughs, and storms/storm tracks have trended all winter. I don't recall very much accuracy beyond 24 hours this year. This situation may, in fact, defy the seasonal trends and end up expertly modeled at 6 days, and the trough ends up as shown from 6 days and the storm develops as shown from 6 days and the storm tracks exactly as shown from 6 days, etc. But that certainly hasn't been the case much this year. Troughs and PVs and heights have almost always trended weaker/shallower/farther west all the way in. Maybe this one bucks, but IMO, it still bears watching closely.

Also, we may need to think about how we name monthly pattern threads next year. Fabulous February, Marvelous March, and so forth aren't getting the job done. We might need to go in a different direction with something like Delusional December, Jacked up January, February Failboat, March Mehness, etc.
Click to expand...

Agree on the thread names and we need to change up who is creating all these threads, we seem to have one person that wants to create all the threads...bad juju. I don't create threads either, I am worse than bad at bringing good luck.
 
KyloG said:
Agree on the thread names and we need to change up who is creating all these threads, we seem to have one person that wants to create all the threads...bad juju. I don't create threads either, I am worse than bad at bringing good luck.
Click to expand...
Hey, I was all for Flambé February and that's what it turned out to be at one point. I think we should think about better names that actually fit the month.
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yeh, just a few members but it’s interesting how some still show it..... although most are pretty light
View attachment 17018
Click to expand...
As hopeful as I am for one last chance I think it won't come around. I'd take 13 as much as anyone but it's more likely for an offshore whiff I think.
 
Good morning everyone. Hope March brings us some wild weather, maybe not snowy types but strong storm/server and nice hail storms with some cold to follow.
 
Shawn said:
Darn, just woke up to a thunderstorm that wasn't quite forecast here.. and its raining pretty darn hard.. nice little line of storms/showers coming up from the South.

Wasn't modeled too well..... just saying...
Click to expand...
The question becomes what can a model predict anymore?
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
The question becomes what can a model predict anymore?
Click to expand...
I think it's probably more fair to have a nuanced take on this - a model will never be perfect, but it can give you a solution for how the weather can turn out... it's why you have professionals who still look at the data and results and make their own interpretations. There's an entire body of math dedicated to how you cannot feasibly predict the weather with 100% certainty.
 
Rain Cold said:
These PVs, troughs, and storms/storm tracks have trended all winter. I don't recall very much accuracy beyond 24 hours this year. This situation may, in fact, defy the seasonal trends and end up expertly modeled at 6 days, and the trough ends up as shown from 6 days and the storm develops as shown from 6 days and the storm tracks exactly as shown from 6 days, etc. But that certainly hasn't been the case much this year. Troughs and PVs and heights have almost always trended weaker/shallower/farther west all the way in. Maybe this one bucks, but IMO, it still bears watching closely.

Also, we may need to think about how we name monthly pattern threads next year. Fabulous February, Marvelous March, and so forth aren't getting the job done. We might need to go in a different direction with something like Delusional December, Jacked up January, February Failboat, March Mehness, etc.
Click to expand...
I campaigned for Flip Flopping February but nobody was having it
 
Some winters it just doesn't want to snow. If that Canada low was 100 miles SE...

500h_anom.na.png
 
Maybe some minuscule shifts on GFS. At this point it seems nearly impossible
 
Rain Cold said:
Let's go ahead and get this out of the way:

GFS small changes no-go
FV3 still suppressed no-go
CMC terrible model no-go
Euro slight improvement with trough no-go

On to the 18Zs.
Click to expand...
That NE storm was a no-go all the way to 72 hours out. Going off that alone, I guess we still have an outside shot?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top