Oof, still pretty far SE, at least we’ve seen more positive than negative trends with the 00z models
I was under the impression that these "cold pushes" have been overdone all season though, and we'd likely see more relaxation to allow a NW shift as we get closer... still okay to watch until 24 hours out, but eh.
GFS actually has flurries now lol. It’s a small improvement.
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What I’m wondering is whether we can get a band of snow to develop like some of the gefs ensemble members have picked up on, if that energy could just dive more SW or west just a tiny bit more, at least us in NC/SC can get a convective snow band to form, it’s evident by the sounding that it would be convective, but like you said it’s not to be expected atm
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Correct me if I'm wrong but that looks about the same or if anything a smidge worse
Think its a smidge worseCorrect me if I'm wrong but that looks about the same or if anything a smidge worse
That Ukie map is massively different with the trough than any other model and if it was the GFS I wouldn't even give it a second glance.... but the UK is not horrible with it's forecast at the H5 level, can sometimes sniff something out. I'm probably like @Myfrotho704_ and being too optimistic but until it caves completely I'll continue to follow it, what else is there to follow? LolUK back with a decent coastal.
Gotta be careful with blue showing up on 6 hour precipitation rate maps that follow storms/fronts. It’s cold enough for snow, but the model is using the 6 hour precip from the prior 6 hours. So the more likely situation is drizzle that dries up in the 6 hours prior and no frozen precip at all as it would be dry in the depicted time on the modeling...
That sounding has no moisture in it so there wouldn’t actually be anything to freeze
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That Ukie map is massively different with the trough than any other model and if it was the GFS I wouldn't even give it a second glance.... but the UK is not horrible with it's forecast at the H5 level, can sometimes sniff something out. I'm probably like @Myfrotho704_ and being too optimistic but until it caves completely I'll continue to follow it, what else is there to follow? Lol
If we do somehow get this thing back into play, what are temps looking like? Think I'm around 35 Monday night, then 21 Tuesday nightCold rain? Seriously though it is interesting that the UK is showing this stronger coastal. We've seen with the stronger storm the NE is about to get how much the models have struggled with it. Here's what the GEFS showed 72 hours out for that storm. Notice a weak low near Bermuda...
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And now just 36 hours out we have this.
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Can you put the lid back on that can or worms please? ThanksThese PVs, troughs, and storms/storm tracks have trended all winter. I don't recall very much accuracy beyond 24 hours this year. This situation may, in fact, defy the seasonal trends and end up expertly modeled at 6 days, and the trough ends up as shown from 6 days and the storm develops as shown from 6 days and the storm tracks exactly as shown from 6 days, etc. But that certainly hasn't been the case much this year. Troughs and PVs and heights have almost always trended weaker/shallower/farther west all the way in. Maybe this one bucks, but IMO, it still bears watching closely.
Also, we may need to think about how we name monthly pattern threads next year. Fabulous February, Marvelous March, and so forth aren't getting the job done. We might need to go in a different direction with something like Delusional December, Jacked up January, February Failboat, March Mehness, etc.
If we do somehow get this thing back into play, what are temps looking like? Think I'm around 35 Monday night, then 21 Tuesday night
These PVs, troughs, and storms/storm tracks have trended all winter. I don't recall very much accuracy beyond 24 hours this year. This situation may, in fact, defy the seasonal trends and end up expertly modeled at 6 days, and the trough ends up as shown from 6 days and the storm develops as shown from 6 days and the storm tracks exactly as shown from 6 days, etc. But that certainly hasn't been the case much this year. Troughs and PVs and heights have almost always trended weaker/shallower/farther west all the way in. Maybe this one bucks, but IMO, it still bears watching closely.
Also, we may need to think about how we name monthly pattern threads next year. Fabulous February, Marvelous March, and so forth aren't getting the job done. We might need to go in a different direction with something like Delusional December, Jacked up January, February Failboat, March Mehness, etc.