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Pattern Marvelous March

I think Phil and SER have the right idea that despite the pattern looking very nice that we're still going to need pretty strong cold anomalies to penetrate far enough SE to allow it to be cold enough for wintry in much of the SE though obviously less would be needed the further north. Hopefully, there will be colder trends while holding into a moist enough flow at H5. That's always a fine line in the SE and the forces that have been in control mean we have to face the real possibility that it never gets nearly cold enough for anything widespread. We just don't know at this very early stage and have to hope for a true change in that regard. A much bigger likelihood obviously is that wintry is mainly restricted to northern SE states like NC/TN/AR. So, if it doesn't happen, no whining allowed. This is a preemptive attempt to prevent whining. ;)
 
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pcbjr said:
1) nothing guarantees cold ... including a +PNA
2) "very cold" ... for some but not southern NC, SC, GA and FLA ... and those are anomalies, not "real" temps ...

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Not fighting ... just making some observations ...
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You picked middle of day in early March to make some point I guess about 2m temps. For early March the GEFS is showing a fairly cold airmass, that block is not blocking “warm air” as you indicated. I never said it was going to be highs in the 20’s in Florida.

Whether GEFS is correct...who’s knows.

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SoutheastRidge said:
Gonna need some of those pink and purple colors in the SE for any chance at snow... considering avg temps will be in the 60s by March.
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Only focused on CAD at this point. Trough centered in SE Canada is a big piece to our puzzle here in NC/SC. Every man for himself
 
metwannabe said:
Not bad, -epo, split flow, trough in the east.... PNA could be better but not horrible at all
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Yes, that ridge can easily get it done with the timing right...that’s all that matters. Can’t have the ridge too tall on this setup or we are looking at a cutter lol

We also don’t need super anomalous cold in the SE to get snow here, what we need is appropriate timing. A night snow would do wonders for MANY SE areas. The EPS is already 10F below normal from RDU to ATL for highs and that’s a Day 10+ mean...it will get colder imo

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Hopefully that ridge will trend stronger at 200hr so I can take the family to Banner Elk next weekend ??
 
OMG at that phase past 220 on the 00z GFS! Don’t worry it’s rain for us but damnnn. I’m booking my hotel room tomorrow! Mountains get smoked!
 
Look at these 850 anomalies. Soak it in. This is strictly eye candy only. .005% chance this even comes close to verifying. Very hostile pattern change on the horizon. Could be one of those deals where you don’t know how cold your rain is going to be until it’s inside 100hr
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Im usually as optomistic as they come. But ive been headfaked enough with these 200 hr model stupid cold, pattern re shuffles this year. Bet the streak, this will prove no different. Id love to be wrong, but outside of a chilly wet spring, the SER owns our corner of the block and the mortgage is paid for.
 
GaWx said:
Folks, March 3 on the 0Z GFS is record breaking cold for much of the US and on a US HDD basis is actually colder averaged out than any day this winter, including when Chi went down to -23 in late Jan! That’s simply incredible!
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GaWx said:
Folks, March 3 on the 0Z GFS is record breaking cold for much of the US and on a US HDD basis is actually colder averaged out than any day this winter, including when Chi went down to -23 in late Jan! That’s simply incredible!
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Is there any chance of it verifying?
 
The 0Z GFS has Chicago at a record low of -6 on 3/3 and a record low high for the entire March and even back to Feb 24th of a mere +7! The point of pointing this out is to note the incredible level of cold the US is liable to be dealing with in early March. The normal there for March 3 is +33.2 meaning the GFS has them 33 colder than normal! That is also a whopping 23 colder than the coldest normals of mid Jan!
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
Wow Euro looks to have low pressure off coast of Fl day 10
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Not a bad look, west coast ridge and the lobe up in Canada, positivity tilted trough, get it to go negative tilt over AL/FL panhandle and that would be a nice storm, high pressure is decent across the country, 850s are a bit warm but I’d take my chances with a look like that, still unfortunately this is around day 10 so it will change 5802E8AD-444B-4C01-8EB5-4D2B38DCC027.jpeg35B0BB9F-778B-45D9-8717-CE5B92FA0E9E.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Deetteeeee wasn't and still apparently isn't buying the forthcoming pattern change so you know it's probably happening now.
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I think it is happening. Our +PNA is taking shape on euro in the 120-168 hr timeframe. That’s not a fantasy land +PNA. That is a legit pattern flip.

The big question is whether or not this is a short term deal or will we see a more lengthy +PNA.
 
Many folks are not going to like the 6Z GEFS due to it being the warmest run by a good margin of at least the last 4 runs. Hopefully, this is a false outlier.
 
The pretty insane persistence of the westerly wind anomalies over the international dateline in the equatorial Pacific the last month or so bodes well for a moderate or strong El Nino over the coming months & into 2019-20. It's also an indication the base state this winter had already made a significant advancement towards El Nino because only a modest change was needed between early-mid winter to kickstart the necessary feedbacks that are almost certainly going to lead to a pretty sizable El Nino this year.

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KyloG said:
EPS definitely has a coastal on day 9ish.

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Something to watch...
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Nice to see some agreement among models, and the GFS continues to look great. Now if we can just get this to keep evolving inside 7 days.
 
The 6Z GFS is not backing away from strong SE cold with a hard freeze at ATL on 3/2. However, some recent FV3 runs oddly enough have backed away. The 6Z FV3 has no freeze at ATL til 3/6. And as earlier mentioned, the 6Z GEFS was the least cold of at least the last 4 in the SE. I hope these are not valid warning signals that the GFS and other models will back away later. For now I remain optimistic that early March will not back away from SE cold with the coldest early March wx in the SE in many years though am far from betting the ranch on this.
 
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GaWx said:
The 6Z GFS is not backing away from strong SE cold with a hard freeze at ATL on 3/2. However, some recent FV3 runs oddly enough have backed away. The FV3 has no freeze at ATL til 3/6. And as earlier mentioned, the 6Z GEFS was the least cold of at least the last 4 in the SE. I hope these are not valid warnings signal that the GFS and other models will back away later. For now I remain optimistic that early March will not back away from SE cold with the coldest early March wx in the SE in many years though am far from betting the ranch on this.
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Seeing how the FV3 has had a horrible cold bias that is concerning..... but maybe it's just horrible in general and is wrong about this too.
 
Just need an I-20 winter storm and this conus snowfall map would fill in nicely.

And TN is super due for a great winter, it seems like they have gotten the short end of the stick lately.

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