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March 2024 Discussion

RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
You're going to get another warm winter overall next year for sure! No way around that. December sucks every year now. La Niña is supposed to be front loaded. If that was the case though December would have been our glory month for the past decade since Nina is about all we can get now. But nope. But you can take it to the bank La Nina will follow climo in February next year. Go ahead and mark it down as a torch. Not like El Nino has saved February either. The last 2 have been torches in Feb too. So it's safe to say December and February are doomed regardless. All we have left is January. Will next Jan be below normal and give a winter storm? Who knows but it's almost like it's no point in even looking for winter until the last week in Dec. Then you can turn the lights off at the end of Jan if nothing has happened.
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Yeah, I'm kinda past the nino and Nina thing. I think it's overrated and over emphasized both ways, hot and cold. It'll come down to where the tropical forcing is and where the pacific jet is. Nina or not, if we can get it in the right spot, we can have a threat or 2 like 2022. Question is will it? Seems like it's always where we don't want it in the winter now.

I do agree January is really the best chance for anything right now. Zero confidence in getting below normal February until it actually happens.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
You're going to get another warm winter overall next year for sure! No way around that. December sucks every year now. La Niña is supposed to be front loaded. If that was the case though December would have been our glory month for the past decade since Nina is about all we can get now. But nope. But you can take it to the bank La Nina will follow climo in February next year. Go ahead and mark it down as a torch. Not like El Nino has saved February either. The last 2 have been torches in Feb too. So it's safe to say December and February are doomed regardless. All we have left is January. Will next Jan be below normal and give a winter storm? Who knows but it's almost like it's no point in even looking for winter until the last week in Dec. Then you can turn the lights off at the end of Jan if nothing has happened.
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I'm scared to even really talk about the extended after busting so hard with the current debacle but there are some analogs out there that aren't terrible at all
 
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RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
You're going to get another warm winter overall next year for sure! No way around that. December sucks every year now. La Niña is supposed to be front loaded. If that was the case though December would have been our glory month for the past decade since Nina is about all we can get now. But nope. But you can take it to the bank La Nina will follow climo in February next year. Go ahead and mark it down as a torch. Not like El Nino has saved February either. The last 2 have been torches in Feb too. So it's safe to say December and February are doomed regardless. All we have left is January. Will next Jan be below normal and give a winter storm? Who knows but it's almost like it's no point in even looking for winter until the last week in Dec. Then you can turn the lights off at the end of Jan if nothing has happened.
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I know we are all doom and gloom and who wouldn't be after these last several winters outside of 1 storm here east of the mountains but we will eventually get cold Decembers and Februarys again. Impossible to say if it'll be next winter but it'll eventually happen. Weather isn't locked into one thing based on the month and it'll eventually swing back our way, even if it's just for 1 winter. But I am on the side that we need to really only focus on the tropical forcing and really the Pacific Jet and really they go hand and hand at this point. Doesn't matter what the models show in the medium and long range. Look to see what the Pacific Jet is doing and that'll tell you everything you need to know about whether we will be cold enough to snow or not. That's all I will be looking at going forward during winter.
 
iGRXY said:
I know we are all doom and gloom and who wouldn't be after these last several winters outside of 1 storm here east of the mountains but we will eventually get cold Decembers and Februarys again. Impossible to say if it'll be next winter but it'll eventually happen. Weather isn't locked into one thing based on the month and it'll eventually swing back our way, even if it's just for 1 winter. But I am on the side that we need to really only focus on the tropical forcing and really the Pacific Jet and really they go hand and hand at this point. Doesn't matter what the models show in the medium and long range. Look to see what the Pacific Jet is doing and that'll tell you everything you need to know about whether we will be cold enough to snow or not. That's all I will be looking at going forward during winter.
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Yeah also for future reference if Alaska is cold and snowy forget about winter 🤣 biggest lesson I took from this year. There were always articles about Alaska snow. The warning signs were there
 
Brent said:
Yeah also for future reference if Alaska is cold and snowy forget about winter 🤣 biggest lesson I took from this year. There were always articles about Alaska snow. The warning signs were there
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This just isn’t true. Alaska cold and snowy all during January 2022. Ridge placement and orientation means a lot more
 
Going to be interesting to see where we go post 3/10. Pattern is going to make a run at turning cool again. Initially there's really no cold tap with the vortex over AK so any eastern troughing gets us back to normal. As you get deeper in the month that may go away and we have the ability to tap back into cool to cold air. We will see though warm has won every battle so far and persistence is hard to beat sometimes
 
BullCityWx said:
I'd say there's a 30% ish chance that if you're west of 77 and north of 85, you could start briefly as snow tomorrow.
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If we were clear most of the night and rushed in clouds and precip by like 10z tomorrow we might have a chance. Just seems like precipitation is going to be too light early and too late. Wouldn't be shocked if some folks saw some ip though as things start to moisten up
 
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360 hour Euro AI model now added to Tropical.
Will be fun to use next winter....
Can't wait for weenies to start posting fantasy images of this model.
 
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