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March 2024 Discussion

Pardon me asking… but what is it with all the rain coming in for a week straight? UGH

Feel free to send some out here. The fires west of here are a bad sign of how it's getting dry again

I mean there seems to be no correlation between a sucky winter and a bad summer but still
 
You really have to wonder if the models are bring too aggressive with the western ridge eastern trough in the extended. Higher amplitude MJO 5-7 are SER composites in March and most of the models look to be in those regions versus the more p8/1 looks of their H5 composites. The strat pv continues to fight repeated warmings but there's decent agreement of a final split/warming which could help HLB and get the pattern a little out of phase with the mjo. Given the tendency though of the mjo to not progress cleanly from the wpac into the whem Africa phases for so long I am skeptical about these blocked/troughs extended looks again we aren't that far off from where we were about 30 days ago when we thought it would happen. With our snow climo dropping off so rapidly after 3/15 we are going to be at a point where any change to cold would take one hell of a pattern to produce significant snow. That said if we do follow some of the more blocky cooler models I wouldn't be surprised if some sites flipped their snow column this winter from 0/T to T or some fractional inch
 
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