Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Meh, don't sweat it. It'll show it till a week before then the opposite will happen; late Feb to early March repeat.
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This would be crazy in 24 hours 
No this look will hold because it will do us absolutely no good whatsoever in terms of snow. It will set us up for 40-45 degree rains followed by dry weather and lows 25-30 and highs in the mid 50s
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
That's fine. Since we don't have a winter anymore a cool spring at least keeps us from going straight into insufferable heat.
jeremyt
Member
High totals I agree. Lived close to Spring Lake in 2016 mid September saw a huge storm with very heavy rain and hail and the a week and a half to two weeks later Matthew came through. Feet of rain between the two!
WPC is buying the heavy rain. Widespread area of 4-6 inches over the next week 
The Euro AI model is on tidbits. I might be wrong but I immediately trust this model over anything else offered. This technology will be huge with weather, no more staying up till 2am to snow at 30 degrees 144 hrs out become 50 and rain.
Brick Tamland
Member
The weather since November has really sucked more days than not.
Windergawx
Member
its really been quite nice Michael
Fantasy land GFS wants to crown Tennessee king of the 23/24 winter.
And then there's this:
And then there's this:
I see wxtwitter is getting all sweaty about the trough at the end of a lot of runs.
Theres more and more support for the mjo actually going through the MC-->Wpac-->whem Africa but I'm still skeptical since we've seen this so many times and rarely does it work anymore
Theres more and more support for the mjo actually going through the MC-->Wpac-->whem Africa but I'm still skeptical since we've seen this so many times and rarely does it work anymore
iGRXY
Member
I'm not going to toot my own horn for saying this 2 weeks ago because even a blind squirrel could've seen this coming. Right on queue you can get ready for 40 degree rain and a lot of it and mid 50 dry days sprinkled in between from now until May and even then we will be below average until the end of May. It's like clockwork every single year. Fall runs from October- February, Winter is March-May, and Summer is June-September.
Brick Tamland
Member
I think it's more like Fall, cool Spring, regular Spring and then Summer now. Fall goes from October to November, cool Spring is December to March, regular Spring is April, and summer is May to September.
The end of the 0z eps had the mjo progressing nicely into p8/1 
And the pattern
Matched/was close to the higher amp p8 composites
The 12z gfs holds the forcing back toward 5-7
It ends here
Which looks a lot like p6
The 0z gep got into a lower amp p8ish
It ends here
Which is close to the all amplitude 8 composite
Certainly not arguing that cold may not come but we are essentially where we were 4 weeks ago expecting the mjo to roll nicely through the cold phases and it fell apart. With some nino left in the pattern I wouldn't be terribly surprised to see the mjo make it into p8/1/2 but it's hard to not be skeptical given how we've seen the mjo progress. On the flip side our last few springs have been far more effective at progressing the mjo into the whem/africa/io phases than the dead of winters
And the pattern
Matched/was close to the higher amp p8 composites
The 12z gfs holds the forcing back toward 5-7
It ends here
Which looks a lot like p6
The 0z gep got into a lower amp p8ish
It ends here
Which is close to the all amplitude 8 composite
Certainly not arguing that cold may not come but we are essentially where we were 4 weeks ago expecting the mjo to roll nicely through the cold phases and it fell apart. With some nino left in the pattern I wouldn't be terribly surprised to see the mjo make it into p8/1/2 but it's hard to not be skeptical given how we've seen the mjo progress. On the flip side our last few springs have been far more effective at progressing the mjo into the whem/africa/io phases than the dead of winters
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To add to the above if we were rolling into a higher amplitude phase 8/1/2 with good model agreement I would actually say we aren't done with snow threats albeit low end. The climo window is closing rapidly around 3/15 but it's not completely dead
It’s incredibly consistent already at day 12
i'm generally AI skeptical for most companies, with the exception being a computing-intense subsector like numerical weather prediction. we complain all the time about "the model has this bias, the model has that bias..." i have a primitive understanding of this but i feel like it wouldn't be difficult to train different models that utilize AI/machine learning to correct common biases and errors. i think it will be interesting to see if there's a jolt in increase model efficacy across all timespans, from short term to weeklies. if there is, awesome, although I wouldn't be surprised if the field begins to reckon with tough conversations about just how many human forecasters we need in a world with increased model accuracy
Speaking of the AI euro that system at 360 is either a snowstorm for most of NC or the coldest of rains
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
75 in Clearwater right now with a Yuengling in my hand
tennessee storm
Member
Think god we’re getting into March now