Wedges don't even "save" us in the winter, lol. But I really don't see it saving us. I see it creating more issues depending on where that boundary sets up.
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March 18-19th Possible Severe Wx Outbreak
- Thread starter Myfrotho704_
- Start date
Wedges don't even "save" us in the winter, lol. But I really don't see it saving us. I see it creating more issues depending on where that boundary sets up.
Yeah the wedge isn’t a savior it just enhances the severe weather when it moves over that boundary ... this starting to look increasingly bad for the i64 corridor
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
We'll have to see how long it takes for the clouds to clear and how much we warm up tomorrow. Hopefully it takes longer to happen than forecasted like it does a lot of times around here, or we get some small storms earlier in the day to prevent us from getting the big ones.
i64 corridor? Where is that?
campamy
Member
Can someone post a map showing where the warm front is? Daughter hijacked my computer where my links are saved.
As I mentioned before- I think the border counties, so pretty much the CLT metro to the Triangle and south are where the biggest threat of tornadoes exists. I have lived here since 2003. I like to think I know enough of our local climatology to have a basic idea of how things play out. It's like winter except just reverse it. Area's that do well in wedge events may escape the worst of it. But area's that normally end up with cold rain are the areas to watch. But I wouldn't even let my guard down if I lived in the Triad. The SPC has done pretty well these last few events.
Downeastnc
Member
Am I the only person that thinks we should probably see an uptick in activity on the 0z models or tomorrow may end up more tame than expected
HRRR is rapidly growing parameters at the end of each new run that comes in... not good cause there is even ore convection.. looks like it doesn’t matter
I mean the soundings are fairly impressive but so far I'm not blown away by many of the sim reflectivity products. I think so far between 12 and 18z runs the most concerning I've seen is the NMM
It always is
Yeah I think so too. Don't get me wrong I don't think the threat is zero but I'm questioning big time coverage
I mean we aren't exactly a severe weather hot bed so that makes sense
It's an interesting setup for sure. But as I alluded to before this reminds me of Feb of last year. Except I think we will have more CAPE than we had last year. And remember those tornadoes tore through CLT before noon. Not saying that's going to happen this go around, but it's something to watch. It's been a long time since I've heard the SPC use wording like they did today. Of course, it's subject to change. Like any forecast is. And as far as speed is concerned, Brad P said it best. It's like turning on Google navigation. Time of arrival will change based on many factors. So, just because it may appear to be ahead of schedule right now doesn't mean it's going to maintain the same speed going forward.
Less than ideal 
This is almost an exact depiction of Feb 2020. Definitely less than ideal, that's for sure.
That's a pretty solid line back you guys way. Crazy how it runs out of gas on the 3k
Lol 
BHS1975
Member
I've always heard the SPC always lean towards worst case scenario when it comes to severe weather. I could be wrong though since it's only something that was told to me.
campamy
Member
Thank you!
Like this 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Model sim reflectivity verification upstream even near hour 0 is pretty meh imo. Gonna wait til morning to see how we're verifying vs the models parameter-wise & to see what the short-term trends are gonna be.
Our schools just called a two hour delay which makes sense with timing. 54.5 here and I won’t be upset if things turn out weak. Storms riding a receding wedge front are usually nasty.
LickWx
Member
That’s where I live
. 64 is life baby, it ain’t but 30 years old too, they dug up the whole eastern nc to build it .
Gonna be a close one for areas back west to see how far we advect 60+ dews as those storms move in, probably gonna be easier to do that from Raleigh-fay 
Now that's a little more concerning if we start breaking the line up into discrete cells. I'm trying so hard to remember what the models looked like heading into the 2011 outbreak here and I just can't
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
In some ways like that particular event, these storms will be mostly firing along a pre-frontal trough that's being created by today's activity in MS/AL
Just me or is it waaay faster than forecast?
Yeah here's the write up of that system, interesting and unusual the transition from linear to discrete super cells. I don't see tomorrow being anything near this, jmho