may squeak out a strong strom with that line near atl
It has a pretty incredible win streak goingThe wudge is #winning
Events like this where we downgrade severe threats leading into the event is what hurts local mets & seriously screws w/ communication esp when the real one actually shows up. Looks like a non-event for the most part in the central-western piedmont, coastal sections of NC/SC and the coastal plain should still keep an eye on it but the more stout cloud deck we're seeing this morning is gonna hurt this one. That's just not something you can easily forecast until it's basically happening.
A lot of folks were saying it on here yesterday. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.Who was it that said don’t ever bet against the wedge. Hahaha
A lot of folks were saying it on here yesterday. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.
But we have seen it time and time again. People that aren't even mets were predicting this would happen. It is what has been happening 9 out of 10 times here the last decade whenever we have a supposedly big threat. It feels like the models are just fooling us time and time again and don't know how to handle things in our current climate. Same thing happens all the time with winter storm threats, too.
But we have seen it time and time again. People that aren't even mets were predicting this would happen. It is what has been happening 9 out of 10 times here the last decade whenever we have a supposedly big threat. It feels like the models are just fooling us time and time again and don't know how to handle things in our current climate. Same thing happens all the time with winter storm threats, too.
This looks on track for a good call. We'll see if we get any breaks in the clouds, but this is looking like your run of the mill severe weather event for central NC, at least at this point.
I'm interested to see what the 12z runs have. It's probably a little early to pull the plug completely
Nah dude. Bad take here. So you think Mets should have underplayed the threat until today if it happened to be a bad outbreak, raise the alarm on the 6am news? Mets make decisions off guidance. Non Mets do too. But I wouldn’t be so quick to say it was bound to happen...we cash in on severe pretty well here in NC. It’s almost like you forget we do decent with tors here...
High res models were pretty clear for NC yesterday that this wouldn’t be much of a threat, at least the 3km NAM and HRRR. They showed clouds, drizzle, cooler temps with a last minute warm surge, very little activity on the SIM Reflectivity and echo top product, etc. IMO this was well modeled by the 3km NAM and HRRR yesterday which were not showing much at all. There’s a lot more to severe weather outbreaks than just a rough sounding, high shear or decent cape.
There's a lot more to severe weather than looking at UH tracks and sim reflectivity
Which is why I said the thick clouds, drizzle, cooler air being slow to move out, etc were other indications of a bust