Downeastnc
Member
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
March 18-19th Possible Severe Wx Outbreak
- Thread starter Myfrotho704_
- Start date
This is quickly getting less than ideal. HRRR and 3K ride a few cells along the residual wedge with a meso low, awesome.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The suddenly more active 12z suite is exactly why you don't call severe setups a bust before they happen.
Wtf lol 
LickWx
Member
Idk tho everyone on here seemed to be hinting at it. I know you mentioned the wedge and all keeping it southeast .However, if I’m not mistaken this was all modeled . Looks like Fayetteville is breaking out now . By noon time I think everyone from Raleigh east and south will be breaking through it or already broken. It really doesn’t take much to destabilize the atmosphere , Wilmington area looking toasty rn.
Shaggy
Member
Just stepped out and am seeing pretty rapid cloud motions from south to north and we went from 52/52 to 59/57 quick with clouds. If we can get 2 hours of sun then we could destabalize just enough.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
That was an ominous 12z NAM run. This area-averaged sounding over FAY & RDU is ugly.
LickWx
Member
Stronger CAD making this possible as you mentioned yesterday ?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Not me lol. Sure there could be a lower threat than advertised but that doesn't necessarily equate to big bust like @snowlover91 was saying earlier. Prematurely jumping the gun and saying it's a bust when nothing has happened yet is definitely something you shouldn't do when it comes to severe weather, it's just too fickle.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah the shear has ticked upwards on the models which is the result of the stronger initial CAD. Sharp warm fronts & CAD boundaries aren't always the best for generating tornadoes because it limits the amount of time a storm can spend in an environment w/ high horizontal baroclinicty & SRH. Today's boundary looks a lot more gentle which is not a good thing in that regard
These soundings are back to looking scary, even around here, that stuff near ATL has my attention 
HRRR now showing some rotating storms 
snowlover91
Member
Visible satellite showing some breaks in the clouds across ENC and SC which will help with instability.
lol well that’s something, honestly wasn’t expecting this sort of stuff this far west but here we go lol 
Downeastnc
Member
Up to 61 here....was 52 at 8am....
The wind has finally turned from the SE here and my temp has risen from 51-56 in the last hour. Still a lot of clouds and a little fog though
mbway091
Member
Brad Panovich sounded fairly bullish still in his forecast discussion this morning.
This fog is wild
Downeastnc
Member
It does not take much, any real updraft will rotate in this environment....so you dont need a lot of sun etc to get tornadic storms....though any sun you get will not help lol.....
LickWx
Member
So when is it supposed to storm? Looking at the HRRR it doesn't storm here till the evening, is that correct? Or are we looking at more like 3-4 pm ?