• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

March 18-19th Possible Severe Wx Outbreak

snowlover91 said:
Which is why I said the thick clouds, drizzle, cooler air being slow to move out, etc were other indications of a bust;)
Click to expand...

I understand this particular case looks like it's favoring a lower end event atm but just a piece of advice for enthusiasts, newbies, and/or amateurs like yourself, jumping the gun & outright saying a severe setup is a bust before anything actually happens or is verified thru post-event surveys is a good way to have egg on your face & doesn't look very professional. I speak from experience...
 
The models pretty much whiffed on the storms this morning in southern GA & FL. Seeing some hints that the northern portion of the QLCS south of Macon will enter eastern SC and southeastern NC later this evening, where a MDT risk is currently out.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Eh, you were mostly concerned about UH tracks and sim reflectivity and made multiple posts about it, those usually don't get you anywhere near as far as forecasting based on the actual conditions.
Click to expand...

No, those were a few examples. I posted a more extended post last night (773) on my thoughts. Lack of echo tops, clouds, drizzle and showers during peak heating, lack of UH and very little on sim reflectivity. We will see what happens today, but signs are indicating this won’t be nearly as bad as hyped/forecast by many which does a good bit of harm to public trust if/when these things don’t verify. I do think we will see some severe weather still, just not moderate level activity but more slight to enhanced type stuff that we typically see.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The models pretty much whiffed on the storms this morning in southern GA & FL. Seeing some hints that the northern portion of the QLCS south of Macon will enter eastern SC and southeastern NC later this evening, where a MDT risk is currently out.
Click to expand...
Do you know why it is that they whiffed ? What did the models not see ?
 
snowlover91 said:
No, those were a few examples. I posted a more extended post last night (773) on my thoughts. Lack of echo tops, clouds, drizzle and showers during peak heating, lack of UH and very little on sim reflectivity. We will see what happens today, but signs are indicating this won’t be nearly as bad as hyped/forecast by many which does a good bit of harm to public trust if/when these things don’t verify. I do think we will see some severe weather still, just not moderate level activity but more slight to enhanced type stuff that we typically see.
Click to expand...

The actual important elements of the forecast that you arguably should be paying attention to more were kinda shoved aside in favor of sim reflectivity & UH tracks based on what I read.
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
Do you know why it is that they whiffed ? What did the models not see ?
Click to expand...

It's just not easy to forecast moist convection. Earlier runs tried to break down the storms & struggled w/ cold pool maintenance. The storms & associated cold pools were apparently more robust than forecast by the models which is why some of them whiffed.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The actual important elements of the forecast that you arguably should be paying attention to more were kinda shoved aside in favor of sim reflectivity & UH tracks based on what I read.
Click to expand...

I’ve seen tons of severe weather events bust in the time I’ve followed them, both to the upside and downside. I’ve found personally that soundings and the overall environment are one part of the puzzle and there are other clues models give us that we can use to help figure out the level of activity and how widespread an event may be.
 
snowlover91 said:
I’ve seen tons of severe weather events bust in the time I’ve followed them, both to the upside and downside. I’ve found personally that soundings and the overall environment are one part of the puzzle and there are other clues models give us that we can use to help figure out the level of activity and how widespread an event may be.
Click to expand...

It's more important to know what's actually causing the sim reflectivity & UH fields to behave the way they do rather than just reacting to their output.
 
Gonna need to see some filtered sun getting thru by lunchtime to really get me worried.....this loop shows the potential is there for some breaks/thin high clouds....it would not take much sun to push temps well into the 60-70's.....

www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov

GOES-East - Sector view: Southeast - Air Mass - NOAA / NESDIS / STAR

Near real-time publication of GOES-East and GOES-West images from NOAA/NESDIS/STAR
www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov
 
Webberweather53 said:
It's more important to know what's actually causing the sim reflectivity & UH fields to behave the way they do rather than just reacting to their output.
Click to expand...

We will see what happens today, but all signs point to a few severe storms vs a mod risk type outbreak like the SPC had yesterday.
 
SD said:
View attachment 79563
Click to expand...
I'm trying to remember the last time it was 48 at 10:00 am then warm front blasted through and gave us severe storms less than 8 hrs later.

Now a special weather statement for dense fog, not saying we don't see severe but would be highly unusual for the atmosphere to recover from this
 
Webberweather53 said:
I generally agree w/ this area-wide anyways, I can see the MDT risk in SE NC verifying though based on recent trends w/ the storms over southern GA.
Click to expand...

Yeah if anywhere is going to see MDT risk verify it would be SE NC which should have the best combo of parameters and visible satellite indicates a few breaks in the clouds there as well.
 
Area-averaged sounding over the entire MDT risk area on the 12z 12km NAM valid at 21z. Pretty solid environment here w/ 750-1000 j/kg MUCAPE, 40 kts of deep layer shear (favoring supercells), & 30 knots of low-level shear, w/ long, cyclonically curved low-level hodographs, worthy of an enhanced-MDT risk for tornadoes, low-level lapse rates could use some work though. Critical angles aren't bad given the strong 0-1 SRH ~250 m2/s2 (which means you'll still have more than enough streamwise vorticity for storms to work from).

1616075384164.png
 
SD said:
Something like this would be problematic. That stuff in NW NC would likely be riding thevresidusl boundary.View attachment 79566
Click to expand...

Basically reinforcing the climo distribution for tors. The secondary max in climo tor density around Charlotte-Greensboro is actually from CAD events like this

NC tornado climatology 1950-2018.png
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top