March 18-19th Possible Severe Wx Outbreak

[Myfrotho704_]

60% chance of a watch being issued

 

[Downeastnc]

I mean this is pretty scary on the face of it.....2K+SCAPE in this setup should be pretty damn bad.....

 

[Avalanche]

I mean this is pretty scary on the face of it.....2K+SCAPE in this setup should be pretty damn bad.....

View attachment 79582

I wouldnt be feeling good at all in your area. Pitt Co has seen this before. Be aware and ready!!

 

[mbway091]

I mean this is pretty scary on the face of it.....2K+SCAPE in this setup should be pretty damn bad.....

View attachment 79582

Stuff like this is why sticking with moderate for parts of ENC was a good idea, and why calling bust at like 4 am on the day of the event is probably a bad idea. I mean maybe it will, but it's still early and the potential is obviously still there.

 

[Avalanche]

I know we've seen our share of cold rain, but Id rather be under that classic mushroom top like Indiana is than dealing with this.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That really does look like a dryline feature like the SPC says

 

[Shaggy]

Dewpoint up to 59 and should be breaking that 60 mark soon. Pretty solid recovery underway here. Took a bit longer to start to but its rolling along now.

 

[Avalanche]

Any hope that the Triangle undergoes that classic split we sometimes see from storms going across the foothills and breaking up into 2 squall lines?

 

[Ghost]

Sun is really trying to break through here in West Columbia SC. gets really bright for a while. 67 degrees

 

[Metwannabe]

This fog is wild

I was watching one of the storm chasers yesterday in Bama and at one point they had a difficult time seeing the tor due to a fog bank in front of it, crazy stuff.

 

[Webberweather53]

I have to agree w/ @Myfrotho704_ this setup in the Carolinas today feels a lot more like a south-central Plains pre-frontal dry line than a traditional cold front.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Nasty

 

[Webberweather53]

I have to agree w/ @Myfrotho704_ this setup in the Carolinas today feels a lot more like a south-central Plains pre-frontal dry line than a traditional cold front.

Notice the lower dewpoints surge well out ahead of the main cold front closer to the axis of storms on models like the HRRR later this afternoon.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Look at the backing along the CAD boundary, esp at the SFC

 

[Webberweather53]

SPC has recently added a new product to their new mesoanalysis page (0-500m SRH). One of my colleagues at NC State has done work on this for his MS thesis and found it is a better predictor of tornadoes than 0-1km SRH. 0-500m SRH values of 200 m2/s2 strongly favors tornadoes, esp strong ones. It's something to watch over the course of today

 

[Shaggy]

Its rebounding out there but just feel like it would be a worse threat if we actually broke out into sun for a couple of hours.

 

[Webberweather53]

Look at the backing along the CAD boundary, esp at the SFCView attachment 79593View attachment 79594

Yep, this is exactly why there's a secondary max in tornado frequencies over the I-85 corridor apart from the "Carolina Alley" we've come to know in the Coastal Plain region. The enhanced vortical stretching off the mountains and retreating CAD locally enhance horizontal baroclinicity and the creation + pooling of relative vorticity that favors tornadogenesis in places like Charlotte-Greensboro. These tornadoes traditionally tend to be weaker/shorter-lived than those further east.

 

[znel52]

72 with a dewpoint of 68 currently at my place in Newport

 

[Avalanche]

Its rebounding out there but just feel like it would be a worse threat if we actually broke out into sun for a couple of hours.

Just like post-snowfall Im still not rooting for the sun!!!

 

[jackendrickwx]

Quite foggy but still wedged in at 53