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March 18-19th Possible Severe Wx Outbreak

Still I think if we see trends of quicker destabilization then we could easily go back to moderate .. there’s that potential the HRRR always looks different 6 hours later in severe events
 
Old decaying line in front with the new line developing behind it .. not much crapvection looks like everything getting dealt with accordingly .. I’m seeing on almost all recent short range guidance quite the surge in temperatures and Dewpoint’s .. we will be solidly in the warm sector I believeDD2ADF28-4853-4B17-8BBC-E62A2CFC1631.png
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
Some good wedging going on this morning. For that, we can be thankful.
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You live at a pretty elevated spot though so you were already protected and fine in the first place ! Can’t imagine much risk ever happening at over 3000 feet. Unless you talking about lower areas in which well we were supposed to be wedged in this morning . Winds are out the south however so matter of time before it breaks .
 
snowlover91 said:
Maybe models just aren’t picking up on the idea of small supercells tomorrow or handling things well... but this is not what I expect for a mod outbreak (in NC) as currently forecast. 19z tomorrow we have light rain moving in.

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Echo tops are also quite shallow, just very little deep convection in NC.
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It’s been my experience with severe weather threats that when models show some red flags like this, a potential bust is in the cards. I’m not saying people shouldn’t take this seriously, I get that parameters and soundings indicate the potential for an outbreak and models could be completely missing it here. But the signs point to clouds, stabilizing light precip during peak heating, and shallow convection. What I’m seeing on the 3km NAM and HRRR runs has consistently indicated this as well across NC in contrast to the widespread outbreak being forecast. Something to watch as things unfold tomorrow morning.
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This looks on track for a good call. We'll see if we get any breaks in the clouds, but this is looking like your run of the mill severe weather event for central NC, at least at this point.
 
JHS said:
Yeah just as I expected. The cold air almost always wins out around here. It never moves out like the models show.
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Seems wilmington is perhaps warming now with 59/57 versus jackonsville just up the road being 53/53. We will see what happens when the sun comes up and how quickly we can erode the wedge.
 
Events like this where we downgrade severe threats leading into the event is what hurts local mets & seriously screws w/ communication esp when the real one actually shows up. Looks like a non-event for the most part in the central-western piedmont, coastal sections of NC/SC and the coastal plain should still keep an eye on it but the more stout cloud deck we're seeing this morning is gonna hurt this one. That's just not something you can easily forecast until it's basically happening.
 
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