snowlover91
Member
Based on the meteocentre maps the UK comes out to 2-5mm which would be .08 to .19" of qpf. Maybe someone with better maps can post a definitive number but that would be how I interpret the ones I posted.
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Wintry March 05-06th 2019 Wintry Weather
- Thread starter $alt
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Based on the meteocentre maps the UK comes out to 2-5mm which would be .08 to .19" of qpf. Maybe someone with better maps can post a definitive number but that would be how I interpret the ones I posted.
This is in millimeters and the conversion isn't impossible, but hopefully someone can get me the weathermodels one. 1 jumping up to 2.5+ is a wide range to try to figure on that.
Turns out I have an active read out from dupage maps, which is nice. For example, the pivotal weather maps showed me 0.05 or so for the 12z RAP, but the dupage maps show a whopping 0.29 on the active read out. I will update all the numbers with the dupage readout for the free models as the tidbits/pivotal maps may not be too good for this experiment.
snowlover91
Member
Yeah hopefully so but if not I came up with a range of .08" to .19", could probably round this to the .10 to .15" range to be consistent with what the other models show.
LovingGulfLows
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Just need a bit more north trend on a few of these models and I might see a bit of snow.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Just 30 miles nw... please. I'm hoping for a last minute jump and it might just happen. Just have to see.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I'd get excited if this verifies.
The active readout from dupage show the following from the modeling they provide (as you can see there are some differences versus the other sources):
12z Model Suite Precipitation Accumulation Forecast for KCAE from College of Dupage active readout:
GEFS: 0.15-0.17 (large area)
RAP: 0.29
GFS: 0.21
FV3: 0.16
NAM 32KM: 0.12
NAM 3KM: 0.06
CMC: 0.19
HRRR: 0.08
Dupage is missing the ICON and RGEM model sadly...
The mean of all of this comes out to 0.16, which may not be far off from what the UKMET is showing and FV3 forecasts to a "T" followed by the GEFS.
Lets see if the Euro/EPS comes close to this number or is much higher in a bit.
That’s some nice lift in the DGZ
NorthGaWinter4
Member
Yeah it certainly is trending better for our area
Snowflowxxl
Member
Woah! Glad I checked into this thread. Looks like I have a chance at my first legit flakes of the year in the morning. Love the trends. I will hop in the truck and drive where ever necessary if I have to.
Snowflowxxl
Member
I can work with this!
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Just 10 more miles. So close. I think it'll make it in a few more runs.
snowlover91
Member
The HRRR looks good for SE NC.
Lmao oh give me a break bud the Gfs has the snow in NC and SC for days when NO other model showed anything
With these rapid trends we may need to bring out the shovels ?? it is interesting with every run there has been more moisture .. now up to maybe some inches for some?
Just based off this you can tell the type of snow is falling, lighter/spottier dandruff around CLT areas and more wet snowflakes in SE NC
Snowflowxxl
Member
Now I'm going to be stuck watching the HRRR all day, which is always painful lol.
Dusting at best, this will be light, now somebody may get a surprise 0.1 or something like that, this looks like a good novelty event for sure