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Wintry March 05-06th 2019 Wintry Weather

Shawn said:
I will definitely add the UK as long as someone with the data from weathermodels can post the map/message it to me as I have no access to it. I will go ahead and add the RAP to the list and get the GEFS in a few ready to post for when the EPS comes out.
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Based on the meteocentre maps the UK comes out to 2-5mm which would be .08 to .19" of qpf. Maybe someone with better maps can post a definitive number but that would be how I interpret the ones I posted.
 
Turns out I have an active read out from dupage maps, which is nice. For example, the pivotal weather maps showed me 0.05 or so for the 12z RAP, but the dupage maps show a whopping 0.29 on the active read out. I will update all the numbers with the dupage readout for the free models as the tidbits/pivotal maps may not be too good for this experiment.
 
Shawn said:
This is in millimeters and the conversion isn't impossible, but hopefully someone can get me the weathermodels one. 1 jumping up to 2.5+ is a wide range to try to figure on that.
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Yeah hopefully so but if not I came up with a range of .08" to .19", could probably round this to the .10 to .15" range to be consistent with what the other models show.
 
snowlover91 said:
Yeah hopefully so but if not I came up with a range of .08" to .19", could probably round this to the .10 to .15" range to be consistent with what the other models show.
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The active readout from dupage show the following from the modeling they provide (as you can see there are some differences versus the other sources):

12z Model Suite Precipitation Accumulation Forecast for KCAE from College of Dupage active readout:
GEFS: 0.15-0.17 (large area)
RAP: 0.29
GFS: 0.21
FV3: 0.16
NAM 32KM: 0.12
NAM 3KM: 0.06
CMC: 0.19
HRRR: 0.08

Dupage is missing the ICON and RGEM model sadly...
The mean of all of this comes out to 0.16, which may not be far off from what the UKMET is showing and FV3 forecasts to a "T" followed by the GEFS.
Lets see if the Euro/EPS comes close to this number or is much higher in a bit.
 
Woah! Glad I checked into this thread. Looks like I have a chance at my first legit flakes of the year in the morning. Love the trends. I will hop in the truck and drive where ever necessary if I have to.
 
With these rapid trends we may need to bring out the shovels ?? it is interesting with every run there has been more moisture .. now up to maybe some inches for some?
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
With these rapid trends we may need to bring out the shovels ?? it is interesting with every run there has been more moisture .. now up to maybe some inches for some?
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Dusting at best, this will be light, now somebody may get a surprise 0.1 or something like that, this looks like a good novelty event for sure
 
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