• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry March 05-06th 2019 Wintry Weather

Snowflowxxl said:
Now I'm going to be stuck watching the HRRR all day, which is always painful lol.
Click to expand...
Yep...HRRrrRr always does this thing where it increases the moisture and gets you all excited and then pulls the rug out. I'm just waiting for the trend to reverse lol.
 
HRRR is showing a bit of a convective nature to the precip. I wouldn’t be surprised if some areas got a quick dusting to an inch under one of those convective bands, assuming that verifies, but for the most part this will likely just be a flizzard storm.
 
Wow, 12Z Euro has joined the wetter 12Z party! Of course, he was actually one of the first to the party.
 
Feast your eyes on this progression of the last 4 Euro runs and you’ll see that the latest is the wettest by a wide margin overall and is generally wetter from the TX/LA border ENE all the way to SE NC:

366F0F07-67EE-40DE-8768-E18E2A05B840.png2B457EC5-F209-413D-8F6F-17EF0E81726A.pngE0D3E9B9-4D37-43BC-99F3-56EE219F159F.pngA31F4F09-D890-487E-9794-729250CC6B1E.png
 
That warm sector of air just really kills it for CAE, jeez we get moisture out of it and the delayed cold air just kills it for us. Frustrating as hell.
 
Hrrr backed off QPF a bit so far and went back S a tiny bit based off hour 13, probably its upcoming trend
 
With this, we know the NW trend is still alive and well. Hopefully later this year the Atlantic will be colder and the SER can take a long nap.
 
snowlover91 said:
HRRR composite reflectivity shows quite well the band of heavy precip that develops over SC and has it sliding NE into NC. This will be something to watch as returns look solid with it.
View attachment 17296
Click to expand...
Check please. I’d love to see one more accumulating snow while I’m still temporarily around in Fayetteville
 
GaWx said:
With this, we know the NW trend is still alive and well. Hopefully later this year the Atlantic will be colder and the SER can take a long nap.
Click to expand...
Can you post Euro snow map? My phone is acting up
 
Here are the final numbers for KCAE for the 12z runs only. Future short range model runs like the RAP/HRRR/18z will not be taken into account.

12z Model Suite Precipitation Accumulation Forecast from College of Dupage active readout
GEFS Mean: 0.15-0.17 (large area)
RAP: 0.29
GFS: 0.21
FV3: 0.16
NAM 32KM: 0.12
NAM 3KM: 0.06
CMC: 0.19
HRRR: 0.08

Tropical Tidibits Map
NAM 12KM: 0.05 - 0.10
ICON: 0.15 - 0.20
RGEM: 0.15 - 0.20

Weatherbell Maps
ECMWF Operational: 0.20 (0.30 very close by)
EPS Mean: 0.10

Other
UKMET Guestimated: 0.15-0.20

Model Blend Totals (inches of precipitation)
All 12z Operational Model Mean: 0.167 (or 0.17)
EPS/GEFS Mean: 0.135 (or 0.14)


If I were to make a forecast based on this data, I would say 0.15-0.20 inches of liquid precipitation (equivalent), with up to 0.25 inches under heavier showers like the simulated radar reflectivity has started to show in random areas. The NAM tends to be too dry, and I think the EPS is slightly too dry. The HRRR/RAP tend to be too wet, from experience, which causes pause with the 0.08 put out by the HRRR versus the RAP's 0.29.
 
Last edited:
Shawn said:
Here are the final numbers for KCAE for the 12z runs only. Future short range model runs like the RAP/HRRR/18z will not be taken into account.

12z Model Suite Precipitation Accumulation Forecast from College of Dupage active readout
GEFS Mean: 0.15-0.17 (large area)
RAP: 0.29
GFS: 0.21
FV3: 0.16
NAM 32KM: 0.12
NAM 3KM: 0.06
CMC: 0.19
HRRR: 0.08

Tropical Tidibits Map
NAM 12KM: 0.05 - 0.10
ICON: 0.15 - 0.20
RGEM: 0.15 - 0.20

Weatherbell Maps
ECMWF Operational: 0.20 (0.30 very close by)
EPS Mean: 0.10

Other
UKMET Guestimated: 0.15-0.20

Model Blend Totals (inches of precipitation)
All 12z Operational Model Mean: 0.167 (or 0.17)
EPS/GEFS Mean: 0.135 (or 0.14)


If I were to make a forecast based on this data, I would say 0.15-0.20 inches of liquid precipitation (equivalent), with up to 0.25 inches under heavier showers like the simulated radar reflectivity has started to show in random areas. The NAM tends to be too dry, and I think the EPS is slightly too dry. The HRRR/RAP tend to be too wet, from experience, which causes pause with the 0.08 put out by the HRRR versus the RAP's 0.29.
Click to expand...
How would the warm nose affect us? Wouldn't it keep us at all rain? it's pretty evident on all modeling.
 
accu35 said:
Can you post Euro snow map? My phone is acting up
Click to expand...

My Euro map doesn’t show enough accumulation to get on the clown map.

Meanwhile, the EPS joins the wetter 12Z party. Here’s the 12Z vs 0Z. 12Z is wetter from TX/LA border ENE to SE NC. We need to watch what’s going on in the NW Gulf starting about now to get an idea of what may be to come. My clown maps don't have enough snow to make the map in case anyone is wondering, but that’s not important now:

CF4B46B3-36A9-41F4-8524-1D42C5FD4426.png9B83CE6A-C051-4399-A90C-44AB652E0E29.png
 
Robert West said:
How would the warm nose affect us? Wouldn't it keep us at all rain? it's pretty evident on all modeling.
Click to expand...

This is just raw liquid numbers. Snow is not a factor in any of these numbers, as I don't expect temperatures to support it, even if we have thicker moisture possibly getting into the snow growth region like the RGEM or RAP for example, would show. The 12z EPS mean does have a trace 0.01 amount of "snow" through the Midlands, though. The GEFS does not.

I'm putting these numbers together for future reference on light events/NW trends with a less than ideal eventual surface low pressure placement.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top