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Tropical Major Hurricane Milton

Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

The structure of Milton has changed significantly overnight. The
pinhole eye seen yesterday has filled and earlier aircraft data
showed a double eyewall structure. More recent microwave images
show only one larger eyewall, and it is clear that Milton is
completing an eyewall replacement cycle. These eyewall replacement
cycles are common in strong hurricanes and often cause the peak
winds to fluctuate, while the wind field generally expands. Based
on the aircraft data from a few hours ago, the initial intensity is
set at 135 kt. Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters are
scheduled to investigate Milton again later this morning.

The major hurricane is beginning to gain latitude, and the latest
initial motion estimate is 075/10 kt. A turn to the northeast with
a slight increase in forward speed is expected later today and
Wednesday as the hurricane moves in the flow between a trough
digging into the Gulf of Mexico and a ridge near the Greater
Antilles. This motion should take the core of Milton to
west-central Florida Wednesday night. After the hurricane passes
Florida, a faster east-northeastward motion is expected within a
more zonal steering flow. Little change was made to the track
forecast through landfall, but this prediction is a little slower
while the system enters and moves over the Atlantic.

Fluctuations in strength due to continued structural changes are
likely during the next day or so while Milton moves across the
central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. An increase in vertical wind
shear will likely cause some weakening before the hurricane reaches
Florida, but there is high confidence that Milton will remain an
extremely dangerous hurricane when it reaches the state. After
landfall, more notable weakening is forecast and Milton is now
expected to become extratropical by day 3 when it is over the
Atlantic. The NHC intensity forecast lies at the high end of the
model guidance in best agreement with the hurricane regional models.

Milton is still a relatively compact hurricane, but the wind field
is expected to continue to grow in size as it approaches Florida.
In fact, the official forecast shows the hurricane and
tropical-storm-force winds roughly doubling in size by the time it
makes landfall. Therefore, damaging winds, life-threatening storm
surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast
cone. It is worth emphasizing that this is a very serious situation
and residents in Florida should closely follow orders from their
local emergency management officials. Milton has the potential to
be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central
Florida.
 
The website has weather stations, showing buoys off Florida, for example, but it may extrapolate wind data poorly, because I can't find hurricane force winds clicking on the map.

1728379144651.png

www.windfinder.com

Windfinder - wind, wave & weather reports, forecasts & statistics worldwide

Wind and weather reports & forecasts for kitesurfers, windsurfers, surfers, sailors and paragliders for over 160,000 locations worldwide.
www.windfinder.com www.windfinder.com


At 1am.

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The HRRR has it pulling in a lot of dry air before landfall.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
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The reef to the left of the eye is Alacranes Reef. Isla Perez of the above post is part of it.
 
NHC 4am

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 22.3N 88.9W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 22.9N 87.5W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 24.2N 85.8W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 26.0N 84.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 27.6N 82.6W 110 KT 125 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
60H 10/1800Z 28.8N 79.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 11/0600Z 29.7N 76.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/0600Z 30.4N 69.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/0600Z 31.5N 63.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
UNLESS MY EYES ARE TIRED IT HAS TAKEN A BIG NORTH TUG

THE 4 AM UPDATE HAS IT SE OF THE ISLAND TO THE LEFT OF CENTER
Screenshot 2024-10-08 052102.png
 
Pretty sure this will come inland just north of Tampa as a Cat 4 with 140mph winds as dry air will take some of the top off, still going to be a strong storm and Tampa will be hit hard. Let's see if the NHC agrees
 
PEA_RIDGE said:
UNLESS MY EYES ARE TIRED IT HAS TAKEN A BIG NORTH TUG

THE 4 AM UPDATE HAS IT SE OF THE ISLAND TO THE LEFT OF CENTER
View attachment 152885
Click to expand...

Yes, it now has a N component.


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You can see Isla Perez of the Alacranes lightly to the left of the center in the Recon map. They were in a weaker part of the eyewall, winds decreasing to the north and south of them as it passed over. It appears they didn't even get hurricane force wind gusts, as I showed previously.

en.wikipedia.org

Scorpion Reef - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

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HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA... ...RESIDENTS IN FLORIDA ARE URGED TO USE TODAY TO PREPARE FOR MILTON'S ARRIVAL AND EVACUATE IF TOLD TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...
7:00 AM CDT Tue Oct 8
Location: 22.5°N 88.8°W
Moving: ENE at 12 mph
Min pressure: 929 mb
Max sustained: 145 mph
 
Lowest readings this pass

113330 2226N 08846W 6980 02517 9269 +207 +070 233026 035 026 000 00 pressure

114100 2223N 08838W 6951 02762 9542 +139 +090 205134 137 105 000 00 flight level

113100 2233N 08851W 6963 02649 9451 +138 +064 057070 078 135 031 00 surface

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MichaelJ said:
Pretty sure this will come inland just north of Tampa as a Cat 4 with 140mph winds as dry air will take some of the top off, still going to be a strong storm and Tampa will be hit hard. Let's see if the NHC agrees
Click to expand...
HWRF and I agree. I quit counting Hwrf runs with this solution.
Jax gets hit hard too.


hwrf_mslp_wind_14L_19.png
hwrf_ref_14L_18 (1).png
 
Matthew East on Facebook posted this.

8:30am Tuesday: Looking at #Milton this morning, I think it has a good chance to strengthen again today. It has completed an eyewall replacement cycle and conditions are favorable for the next 24 hours or so. Think it could achieve Cat 5 again before weakening on its approach to Florida.
 
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Large surge impact, I imagine; hurricane force winds compact, for now.
 

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For the record, seeing this thing make a dip close to the Yucatan coast around midnight, I just now checked all the coastal weather stations as far inland as the Merida airport on Windfinder. While it's possible there were stronger winds before midnight, Windfinder reports data in 3 hour increments, and I could only see data for today the 8th, and the winds on the coast decreased after the 12am readings. The strongest gusts I saw was 72 mph.

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Latest pass

125130 2229N 08844W 6959 02565 9284 +212 +095 319040 050 043 002 00

125300 2225N 08848W 6981 02669 9515 +113 +107 313121 126 139 036 00 surface

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Rain Cold said:
Satellite presentation doesn't give the impression that it's primed for takeoff just yet. But it may make another run at cat 5 status later this afternoon. Overall conditions seem pretty favorable for a while.
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I definitely wouldn't say it's strengthening, but I definitely wouldn't say it's weakening either. Eye is at 13 miles this morning but if it clears in the next few then the floor is back open unless another influence comes in. I'm curious why so many hurricane models bust it open before landfall too. Jet influence maybe? I feel like I saw this with Helene's modeling but the eye stayed intact for awhile versus modeled.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I definitely wouldn't say it's strengthening, but I definitely wouldn't say it's weakening either. Eye is at 13 miles this morning but if it clears in the next few then the floor is back open unless another influence comes in. I'm curious why so many hurricane models bust it open before landfall too. Jet influence maybe? I feel like I saw this with Helene's modeling but the eye stayed intact for awhile versus modeled.
Click to expand...

13 miles is pretty small still and with contraction would hopefully/probably lead to another ERC fairly quickly....best case is a ERC happening late tonight while also ingesting some dry air...
 
ForsythSnow said:
I definitely wouldn't say it's strengthening, but I definitely wouldn't say it's weakening either. Eye is at 13 miles this morning but if it clears in the next few then the floor is back open unless another influence comes in. I'm curious why so many hurricane models bust it open before landfall too. Jet influence maybe? I feel like I saw this with Helene's modeling but the eye stayed intact for awhile versus modeled.
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the usual suspects- dry air and shear. i still maintain that when this thing deteriorates it will deteriorate fast

you can feel it in the air this morning. woke up and the house was sitting at 65 (no heat on). i think it's inevitable dry air gets ingested tomorrow on the southeast side- all models show this- the question to me is how long it can maintain its structural integrity
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the impacts will be similar but i don't agree verbatim with the "the impacts will be the exact same" message- personally i think there's a big difference between a ragged but intact storm coming ashore vs. a half-icane that has been decaying for a little bit
 
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