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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

NWTENN said:
Tons of October beachgoers this week with Fall Break happening in many parts of the South. Yet another concerning part of this.
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I just got back from Port St. Joe which is pretty much in between Panama City and Apalachicola. I talked to several people on the beach that were going to ride it out. I was looking at their kids thinking to myself about irresponsible and stupid it was to put them in harms way like that. I just pray they’ve wised up since yesterday.
 
BNAwx said:
I just got back from Port St. Joe which is pretty much in between Panama City and Apalachicola. I talked to several people on the beach that were going to ride it out. I was looking at their kids thinking to myself about irresponsible and stupid it was to put them in harms way like that. I just pray they’ve wised up since yesterday.
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I hope people listen because I’ve heard some bridges are closing once winds reach 40 mph
 
BNAwx said:
I just got back from Port St. Joe which is pretty much in between Panama City and Apalachicola. I talked to several people on the beach that were going to ride it out. I was looking at their kids thinking to myself about irresponsible and stupid it was to put them in harms way like that. I just pray they’ve wised up since yesterday.
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Unfortunately this is what happens when North and South Carolina evacuate the coast for a rain storm (a bad rain storm). The way the media hyped Florence is why we’re in this position. Major hit incoming for the panhandle of Florida. Maybe they can seed this thing and at least keep it at a Category 3
 
Looking at Longeave IR, cloud tops are not as cold as they were an hour and a half ago. Mostly on the southeast and eastern side. Any experts care to comment on what that means?
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Looking at Longeave IR, cloud tops are not as cold as they were an hour and a half ago. Mostly on the southeast and eastern side. Any experts care to comment on what that means?
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According to KK, we are on the better end of the storm!! She’s saying top gusts to 25mph, Johnny C says 40+?? What will it be?
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Looking at Longeave IR, cloud tops are not as cold as they were an hour and a half ago. Mostly on the southeast and eastern side. Any experts care to comment on what that means?
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Hurricanetrckr26 said:
Have you heard anything about Columbia?
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it looks like the remnants are going to go right over the city! However sting it is at landfall and it’s forward speed, I’d expect 40-60mph gusts atleast! CAE is about 1 county away from being under a tropical storm watch
 
Let me reiterate from a few days ago, the Midlands of SC will experience more power loss and damage than what Florence did. A 50 mile shift West or East makes a difference in rainfall amounts and tornado threats, especially, but either way it's going to be a bigger deal.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Looking at Longeave IR, cloud tops are not as cold as they were an hour and a half ago. Mostly on the southeast and eastern side. Any experts care to comment on what that means?
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Looks to be leveling out or back to just slow strengthening. I have to give the models credit, they are doing a decent job on intensity. If they are right, the next good increase in strength will happen as it it turns NE toward the coast.
 
2B86E7B0-AC30-46CC-AAD5-BE2A5907A514.png For the CAE people! Credit the other board!
 
RollTide18 said:
The good news is with this new pause in strengthening is that a Cat 5 looks to be off the table.
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I wouldn’t take anything off the table, until it’s on land!
Now, y’all hurry up with the early 0z model runs, I gotta get some sleep!
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Thank you. Can you elaborate on “pulsed”?
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The convection has been bursting throughout the day on the east/northeast side like Eric mentioned earlier this morning. The bursts have been getting closer together and more intense and a new one is starting right now. I would anticipate the strengthening to pick back up soon, recon just found 946.5mb pressure extrap. You can see the start of the new burst below and this one looks like it will circle the entire eye.
upload_2018-10-9_22-26-8.jpeg
 
Wow, a 10mb drop in pressure since the last advisory 3hrs ago. As snowlover91 said, the eastern side of the COC is firing up again. I wonder if NHC will pull the trigger and upgrade to a Cat. 4 or play a little more modestly and go stronger Cat. 3?
 
Weatherlover92 said:
Wow, a 10mb drop in pressure since the last advisory 3hrs ago. As snowlover91 said, the eastern side of the COC is firing up again. I wonder if NHC will pull the trigger and upgrade to a Cat. 4 or play a little more modestly and go stronger Cat. 3?
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I expect them to at least go 125 mph next advisory. Then come out with a special advisory if need be.
 
To my rookie eye, looks like the cold front is not making a whole lot of Eastward progress, or not steadily anyway! Could lead to more N/NW movement?
 
Weatherlover92 said:
Wow, a 10mb drop in pressure since the last advisory 3hrs ago. As snowlover91 said, the eastern side of the COC is firing up again. I wonder if NHC will pull the trigger and upgrade to a Cat. 4 or play a little more modestly and go stronger Cat. 3?
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I think they need to do something aggressive to get people to listen!!!!
 
snowlover91 said:
The convection has been bursting throughout the day on the east/northeast side like Eric mentioned earlier this morning. The bursts have been getting closer together and more intense and a new one is starting right now. I would anticipate the strengthening to pick back up soon, recon just found 946.5mb pressure extrap. You can see the start of the new burst below and this one looks like it will circle the entire eye.
View attachment 6869
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I'd encourage those of you looking at satellite images to use this one snowlover posted, it is from the 1-minute meso sector, updates almost instantly and gives you a much better idea of what's going on. Free for all to view on TT
 
So 125 at the 11 pm update?

At 0000 UTC, 10 October 2018, MAJOR HURRICANE MICHAEL (AL14) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 26.6°N and 86.5°W. The current intensity was 110 kt and the center was moving at 10 kt at a bearing of 350 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 949 mb.
 
The slightest of just west of due north movement

recon_NOAA2-1214A-MICHAEL.png
 
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