That 109 mph wind gust in the panhandle of Fl, the western one, no lie is directly over the community of Wright, where my sister and her husband live. They have already started the boarding up processQuite gustier than 0Z
12Z
0Z
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Tropical Major Hurricane Michael
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
lol doubtful but I would say the West trend will continue based on how models handeled the ridge for Florence.. but what do I know
Round Oak Weather
Member
I think the track the Euro, GFS, and UK have now it’s pretty close to being correct. I’m not a meteorologist or and expert so I could be wrong but I’ve been thinking that track the past few days. I think the FV3 is just way to far west and north
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Michael will be at 80 mph at the 5 pm advisory. Based on the model consensus at 12Z, expect the cone to shift NW as well.
snowlover91
Member
Something to think about is for the NC area there are a lot of people who have their roof damaged from Florence and they are covered with tarps now. Winds gusting 50-70mph across these areas is going to cause a lot of issues for houses like this and may knock power back out again in some areas since there are a lot of trees and such still leaning.
About to have an solid eye.
Don't look now but several eps members going west at landfall.....
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Yep. Looks quite impressive now and I bet when the convection loops around it will look better.
pcbjr
Member
Don't get me wrong, b/c west is by far the best ... but 24 hours ago it was a different story ... it's still a poker game and the player at the table and the dealer both have a face card up ...Don't look now but several eps members going west at landfall.....
snowlover91
Member
Big thing to note is the EPS mean is basically identical to the FV3, GFS, Euro landfall areas. I think we have a good idea where landfall is going to be within about 50 miles or so. Panama City looks like ground zero right now.
I'd go a little west of Panama City but it's really splitting hairs...
And the obvious is the faster eps members are the most west, slower the most east.... no surprise there
GeorgiaGirl
Member
FWIW: Michael hasn't quite left the passage yet. If it does leave before late night, then I'd say we're going to see more west shifting, but if it doesn't leave before late night, then I think we're probably about at what we're going to see consensus wise.
snowlover91
Member
Yeah going to be close either way, any small eyewall wobbles as it approaches and the forward speed too will make a different. The big difference in the EPS is the faster vs slower models and where the storm ends up. Hopefully that will resolve tonight with the upper air missions.
That's what I said a couple post back.... Lol
Kylo
Member
Don't look now but several eps members going west at landfall.....
EPS mean on top of Op. The weaker members are west and the stronger members are east. Michael already sub 980 and EPS doesn’t have any members sub 980 until tomorrow sometime.
Great point and that is a consensus I believe...
Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
snowlover91
Member
Haha just saw it. I hope the residents in Panama City and surrounding areas are prepared... a cat 3 landfall in some of these areas could bring in 10 feet or more of surge just depending on landfall area and angle of approach.. and that's assuming this is only a cat 3 at landfall.
snowlover91
Member
Something important to note... an anti-cyclone has now built on top of Michael and will help keep shear low as long as they move in tandem. The GFS has been showing this moving in tandem with Michael keep the shear low and allowing for continued strengthening. Some incredibly powerful storms firing all around the center right now.
