They increased the peak winds to 110 mph.
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Tropical Major Hurricane Laura
- Thread starter GaWx
- Start date
Intensity right at landfall is forecast at 110 now at latest NHC update
Brent
Member
snowlover91
Member
This isn’t just a case of the HWRF showing RI. When globals like the GFS and Euro are showing this bombing out sub 950mb then pay close attention. Unfortunately, assuming no EWRC before landfall, this will likely do similar to Michael and Harvey which is a worst case scenario.
0z ICON has a 961 mb hurricane making landfall on the TX/LA border.
D
Deleted member 527
Guest
I definitely would not let your guard down at all being in BR. The exact track is not set in stone nor the intensity.
Waxing vs waning will fit the overnight billet.
Pressure is down to 994.7 mb.
Brent
Member
GFS looks to be a hair west through Wednesday morning
0z GFS has it making landfall as a 957 mb hurricane on the TX/LA border.
Brent
Member
Definitely been a little west all day
Brent
Member
Ukmet goes near the border too 956 mb offshore
Maybe converging over the official track hopefully
Maybe converging over the official track hopefully
Looks like we may be seeing the first heavy banding convection over the LLC.
Brent
Member
CMC heading to Texas
I'm gonna stop predicting what the models will do
I'm gonna stop predicting what the models will do
SimeonNC
Member
What did the models forecast for Laura's pressure when it left Cuba, I'm curious to see how Laura's current intensity compares to what models had forecast for her at this point. Especially the more bullish models.
Brent
Member
I think I see an eye
Yea I see it too..??
Brent
Member
Euro is way west these west trends can stop anytime now also it's strengthening til landfall
The hurricane watches may have to be extended southward
The hurricane watches may have to be extended southward
Brent
Member
No good news tonight
This isn't too precise, but I used Pino Gordo, Cuba for the location of the red circle and Santa Lucia, Cuba as a mid point of the tracks in the ensemble and found the distance between the two towns.
That red circle is roughly 40 milles southwest of the mid point of the tracks in the ensemble.
Brent
Member
Not really a single one in Louisiana
I was really hoping I was wrong about the west shifts but it's not looking very likely
I was really hoping I was wrong about the west shifts but it's not looking very likely
hrmmm, is this even possible? 
Brent
Member
Check out Ike up there had hurricane force gusts in Ohio
Anyway what a nightmare the EPS is this is 48 hours out!!
Brent
Member
...LAURA NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY...
...ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCH AREA ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF TEXAS...
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 85.7W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM SE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Tropical Storm Watch from South of Port Bolivar to San Luis
Pass has been changed to a Hurricane Watch.
We got an M point
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY...
...ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCH AREA ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF TEXAS...
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 85.7W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM SE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Tropical Storm Watch from South of Port Bolivar to San Luis
Pass has been changed to a Hurricane Watch.
We got an M point
Brent
Member
After a westward jog earlier, Laura is estimated to be moving
west-northwestward again or 290/15. The synoptic situation consists
over a large ridge near the southeastern United States and a
weakness in the ridge over Central Texas due to an inverted trough.
Laura should gradually gain latitude and turn to the northwest and
north-northwest over the next two days while it is steered between
those two features, move northward late this week through the
southern United States, then move quickly eastward across the
eastern U.S. over the weekend as it encounters the mid-latitude
westerlies. The majority of the guidance has shifted a notable
distance to the west on this run, perhaps due to a weaker trough
over Texas and a more westward initial position of Laura (possibly
due to persistent northerly mid-level shear). The new NHC
prediction is at the eastern edge of the new guidance envelope since
I don't want to bite off on such a large change on just one set of
model runs. But since the storm has been tracking west of forecast
expectations for quite some time, future westward track adjustments
could be required later today.
Laura is forecast to move over the very warm and deep waters of the
Gulf of Mexico, with similar or lighter shear conditions through
the next couple of days. Now that an inner core appears to be
trying to form, conditions appear ripe for at least steady
intensification, and rapid intensification is becoming more likely
before landfall. In fact, almost all of the explicit guidance
models, save the statistical-dynamical models, are showing a period
of rapid strengthening at some point during the next couple of days.
Thus, the new NHC forecast is higher than the last one, but not as
high as the most of the regional hurricane models since shear could
increase just before landfall.
west-northwestward again or 290/15. The synoptic situation consists
over a large ridge near the southeastern United States and a
weakness in the ridge over Central Texas due to an inverted trough.
Laura should gradually gain latitude and turn to the northwest and
north-northwest over the next two days while it is steered between
those two features, move northward late this week through the
southern United States, then move quickly eastward across the
eastern U.S. over the weekend as it encounters the mid-latitude
westerlies. The majority of the guidance has shifted a notable
distance to the west on this run, perhaps due to a weaker trough
over Texas and a more westward initial position of Laura (possibly
due to persistent northerly mid-level shear). The new NHC
prediction is at the eastern edge of the new guidance envelope since
I don't want to bite off on such a large change on just one set of
model runs. But since the storm has been tracking west of forecast
expectations for quite some time, future westward track adjustments
could be required later today.
Laura is forecast to move over the very warm and deep waters of the
Gulf of Mexico, with similar or lighter shear conditions through
the next couple of days. Now that an inner core appears to be
trying to form, conditions appear ripe for at least steady
intensification, and rapid intensification is becoming more likely
before landfall. In fact, almost all of the explicit guidance
models, save the statistical-dynamical models, are showing a period
of rapid strengthening at some point during the next couple of days.
Thus, the new NHC forecast is higher than the last one, but not as
high as the most of the regional hurricane models since shear could
increase just before landfall.
NWMSGuy
Member
Will be interesting to see when and where this storm eventually turns northeast/East after landfall. Looks like the heaviest precip is West of my location, for now.
CraggyRider
Member
Just wanted to highlight the only potential good news in the NHC discussion.
BHS1975
Member
tennessee storm
Member
Severe weather will be concern for you still... as center just by passes to the west of u
Much better organized than last night.
ajr
Member
Looks impressive this morning -- seems to have more developed outflow as well.
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B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Right now it seems everything is pointing to Laura becoming a major hurricane and going further west than the NHC track shows. I hope folks in Texas are prepared.
MichaelJ
Member
I am afraid they are underestimating the intensification prospects as it has some VERY warm and deep wter to traverse with virtually no shear to constrict it. I look for a landfall just west of the Tx/La border with a 935MB pressure and 135-140mph winds
You’re probably correct... I see that the NHC has it as a major at landfall now on its forecast track. With the environment that it will be in and the water temps it has to take advantage of, it is hard to see this not being a Category 4 at landfall... really the only thing that prevents that is a well timed ERC within the last few hours before it hits. Something else to keep in mind is how quickly it’s moving... nearly 20mph and that motion is expected to continue...so anywhere to the right of where the storm makes landfall gets that forward speed added to the wind speed.
blueheronNC
Member
Did it have shear? That clear eye stadium effect at landfall was the best ever photographed from the ground of any hurricane on record.
And Laura is now a hurricane
Remember this? I’m so thankful that I don’t invest the time into tropical systems that I do with winter systems, because the run to run variability is insane. This thing is now trending to Texas and it looked like this not so long ago. Weather is crazy!
Jessy89
Member
That’s why tracking weather is so much fun. Because it is a challenge to predict. Models is just like a hammer and a screwdriver there your tools. But you still have to know how to use them.
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