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Tropical Major Hurricane Laura

They increased the peak winds to 110 mph.
INIT 25/0300Z 22.7N 84.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 23.7N 86.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 25.2N 89.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 26.8N 91.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 28.8N 93.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 27/1200Z 31.3N 93.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
72H 28/0000Z 33.8N 93.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 29/0000Z 36.7N 89.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/0000Z 36.9N 77.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
Intensity right at landfall is forecast at 110 now at latest NHC update
 
This isn’t just a case of the HWRF showing RI. When globals like the GFS and Euro are showing this bombing out sub 950mb then pay close attention. Unfortunately, assuming no EWRC before landfall, this will likely do similar to Michael and Harvey which is a worst case scenario.
 
Pressure is down to 994.7 mb.
424
URNT15 KNHC 250320
AF309 1313A LAURA HDOB 40 20200825
031100 2305N 08417W 6961 03132 9982 +120 +084 101040 040 045 000 03
031130 2303N 08417W 6961 03127 9974 +123 +087 102040 040 045 000 00
031200 2301N 08417W 6965 03121 9972 +122 +099 103040 041 047 001 03
031230 2300N 08417W 6960 03124 9969 +121 +105 100039 041 047 000 03
031300 2258N 08417W 6962 03122 9971 +120 +106 101038 039 046 000 03
031330 2256N 08417W 6959 03122 9965 +122 +094 102040 040 045 001 03
031400 2254N 08417W 6965 03113 9960 +122 +104 107038 040 045 001 03
031430 2253N 08418W 6965 03111 9967 +117 +101 106035 038 044 000 03
031500 2251N 08418W 6962 03116 9972 +112 +090 108030 033 039 000 03
031530 2249N 08418W 6959 03116 9963 +120 +079 109028 030 039 000 03
031600 2248N 08419W 6966 03106 9959 +122 +081 109027 028 036 000 03
031630 2246N 08419W 6959 03112 9953 +124 +084 109025 027 037 000 03
031700 2244N 08420W 6962 03107 9947 +126 +101 105021 023 040 001 00
031730 2243N 08420W 6963 03104 9948 +125 +093 112015 019 040 001 03
031800 2241N 08421W 6961 03107 9947 +125 +095 110015 015 036 000 03
031830 2239N 08421W 6961 03105 9950 +121 +099 104010 014 035 000 03
031900 2237N 08422W 6963 03104 9953 +119 +102 095009 009 034 000 00
031930 2236N 08422W 6963 03104 9950 +122 +096 093006 008 035 000 00
032000 2234N 08422W 6962 03107 9950 +124 +093 110004 006 036 000 03
032030 2232N 08423W 6959 03108 9955 +118 +105 342002 004 036 001 00
 
Another thing, as @SD earlier said this gives me Erin vibes but stronger, for areas farther East, Thermos/wind energy is favorable for a some sort of line that could produce damaging winds/isolated tornadoes for SC/NC/GAA8E66CEF-26A1-4640-9465-1B12620162F6.pngBE1CF8F0-4552-4DE1-8104-0652FBA9CBA9.png
 
Pressure is down to 994.7 mb.

What did the models forecast for Laura's pressure when it left Cuba, I'm curious to see how Laura's current intensity compares to what models had forecast for her at this point. Especially the more bullish models.
 
Euro is way west these west trends can stop anytime now also it's strengthening til landfall

The hurricane watches may have to be extended southward

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.gom (11).png
 



This isn't too precise, but I used Pino Gordo, Cuba for the location of the red circle and Santa Lucia, Cuba as a mid point of the tracks in the ensemble and found the distance between the two towns.

That red circle is roughly 40 milles southwest of the mid point of the tracks in the ensemble.
 
Not really a single one in Louisiana

I was really hoping I was wrong about the west shifts but it's not looking very likelyFB_IMG_1598339306006.jpg
 
...LAURA NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY...
...ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCH AREA ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF TEXAS...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 85.7W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM SE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch from South of Port Bolivar to San Luis
Pass has been changed to a Hurricane Watch.

We got an M point

034427.png
 
After a westward jog earlier, Laura is estimated to be moving
west-northwestward again or 290/15. The synoptic situation consists
over a large ridge near the southeastern United States and a
weakness in the ridge over Central Texas due to an inverted trough.
Laura should gradually gain latitude and turn to the northwest and
north-northwest over the next two days while it is steered between
those two features, move northward late this week through the
southern United States, then move quickly eastward across the
eastern U.S. over the weekend as it encounters the mid-latitude
westerlies. The majority of the guidance has shifted a notable
distance to the west on this run, perhaps due to a weaker trough
over Texas and a more westward initial position of Laura (possibly
due to persistent northerly mid-level shear). The new NHC
prediction is at the eastern edge of the new guidance envelope since
I don't want to bite off on such a large change on just one set of
model runs. But since the storm has been tracking west of forecast
expectations for quite some time, future westward track adjustments
could be required later today.


Laura is forecast to move over the very warm and deep waters of the
Gulf of Mexico, with similar or lighter shear conditions through
the next couple of days. Now that an inner core appears to be
trying to form, conditions appear ripe for at least steady
intensification, and rapid intensification is becoming more likely
before landfall. In fact, almost all of the explicit guidance
models, save the statistical-dynamical models, are showing a period
of rapid strengthening at some point during the next couple of days.

Thus, the new NHC forecast is higher than the last one, but not as
high as the most of the regional hurricane models since shear could
increase just before landfall.
 
Will be interesting to see when and where this storm eventually turns northeast/East after landfall. Looks like the heaviest precip is West of my location, for now.
 
Right now it seems everything is pointing to Laura becoming a major hurricane and going further west than the NHC track shows. I hope folks in Texas are prepared.
 
I am afraid they are underestimating the intensification prospects as it has some VERY warm and deep wter to traverse with virtually no shear to constrict it. I look for a landfall just west of the Tx/La border with a 935MB pressure and 135-140mph winds
 
I am afraid they are underestimating the intensification prospects as it has some VERY warm and deep wter to traverse with virtually no shear to constrict it. I look for a landfall just west of the Tx/La border with a 935MB pressure and 135-140mph winds
You’re probably correct... I see that the NHC has it as a major at landfall now on its forecast track. With the environment that it will be in and the water temps it has to take advantage of, it is hard to see this not being a Category 4 at landfall... really the only thing that prevents that is a well timed ERC within the last few hours before it hits. Something else to keep in mind is how quickly it’s moving... nearly 20mph and that motion is expected to continue...so anywhere to the right of where the storm makes landfall gets that forward speed added to the wind speed.
 
Remember this? I’m so thankful that I don’t invest the time into tropical systems that I do with winter systems, because the run to run variability is insane. This thing is now trending to Texas and it looked like this not so long ago. Weather is crazy!A06F42FE-E60D-494B-81CD-4A9F392C34E9.jpeg
 
Remember this? I’m so thankful that I don’t invest the time into tropical systems that I do with winter systems, because the run to run variability is insane. This thing is now trending to Texas and it looked like this not so long ago. Weather is crazy!View attachment 47196

That’s why tracking weather is so much fun. Because it is a challenge to predict. Models is just like a hammer and a screwdriver there your tools. But you still have to know how to use them.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
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