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Tropical Major Hurricane Laura

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 19.5N 75.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 20.6N 78.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR CUBA
24H 24/1800Z 21.8N 81.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR CUBA
36H 25/0600Z 23.3N 84.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 25/1800Z 24.7N 87.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 26.1N 90.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 28.0N 92.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 32.7N 93.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 28/1800Z 37.0N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
Peak winds now up to 105 mph.
 
I wonder if Marco doesn't strengthen or if it collapses if that would help Laura become even stronger.
 
18z ICON has Laura making landfall as a 980 mb hurricane in the Lousiana coast. A little east of the 12z run earlier.
 
I wonder if Marco doesn't strengthen or if it collapses if that would help Laura become even stronger.

Levi mentioned that in his video actually — if Marco is closer to Laura (or keeps together longer) it could induce a SE->NW low level flow that would create some sheer against the more ESE->WNW mid level flow.
 
Looks like a nice convection burst is poping over the center atm. Maybe it will help it sustain some of its strength as it passes over the mountains of SE Cuba.
 
958 mb close to landfall this time (near the TX/LA border).

I think Larry's call is probably going to look good here.
 
18z GFS makes landfall as a 958 mb hurricane on the Texas coast. Much stronger and it is southwest of the last run.
 
Laura may have a very similar track to this one.


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Also I think Marco will help out Laura by moistening things up lol.


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Last edited:
Great news for the Carolinas! Brad P. “The Carolinas will have no direct impacts from #Marco or #Laura. Also no indirect impacts from #Marco and very unlikely any from #Laura as well. The track right now of the remnants is too far west & with a ridge of high pressure parked over us means no rain.
 
Agreed a cat 3 is not at all an unreasonable possibility.
I indicated it upthread, but the US is going to dodge a big bullet if it escapes a major hit. I believe Laura will be at least a 3 when it makes landfall...as long as it avoids most of Cuba.
 
I indicated it upthread, but the US is going to dodge a big bullet if it escapes a major hit. I believe Laura will be at least a 3 when it makes landfall...as long as it avoids most of Cuba.

The 1900 cane went over most of Cuba.


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Great news for the Carolinas! Brad P. “The Carolinas will have no direct impacts from #Marco or #Laura. Also no indirect impacts from #Marco and very unlikely any from #Laura as well. The track right now of the remnants is too far west & with a ridge of high pressure parked over us means no rain.
The last time that Brad said that with so much certainty this many days out was two years ago with Michael... I ended up with about 5 inches of rain and a highest wind gust of 63mph... and the center passed over my house.... Brad is great at what he does, and is probably right this time, but he sometimes is too quick to dismiss stuff
 
I indicated it upthread, but the US is going to dodge a big bullet if it escapes a major hit. I believe Laura will be at least a 3 when it makes landfall...as long as it avoids most of Cuba.
I agree.....the models are telling us there is a risk of a very serious disaster.....hopefully all on the Tx and La coasts are prepared with both a hurricane plan and an evacuation plan. They will only gave 3 days to implement either one.
 
I don’t think it hits Texas never did. But could be wrong


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well brad p is gonna have to apologize to his viewers he was on record saying no impact direct or indirect etc
The EPS has been fairly consistent with that sharp east turn for a couple days. I still think that if it were to do that and the circulation holds together pretty well as most storms tend to do in that part of the country... it could lead to a significant severe weather outbreak for Tennessee, Northern Alabama, Northern Georgia, and the Carolinas. Also I could definitely see it regenerating once it moves off the coast.
 
well brad p is gonna have to apologize to his viewers he was on record saying no impact direct or indirect etc
Come on. He is giving his opinion. Nothing wrong with that. He also has several days to change his mind.
 
well brad p is gonna have to apologize to his viewers he was on record saying no impact direct or indirect etc
Your only as good as your equipment. He can’t help the models are all over the place with this. Plus considering the models don’t know how to handle a situation like this. It’s only happened one other time. Come on give the guy a break.
 
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Oh come on this won’t happen. 905 mB hurricane making landfall. That be the strongest ever impossible


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Your only as good as your equipment. He can’t help the models are all over the place with this. Plus considering the models don’t know how to handle a situation like this. It’s only happened one other time. Come on give the guy a break.
Yeah gotta give him a break during tropical season because he’s even worse when there’s a winter event threatening the area.
 
NAM 3K is the high-res version of the HWRF in terms of intensity on canes. Blows up everything.
 
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