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Tropical Major Hurricane Laura

It looks like Laura has spent the last few hours building up her core convection and trying to clear out her eye. Once that's done, we should have a better idea of where she's likely headed to. Right now her eye is wobbling all over the place.
 
If there’s one thing that prevents anymore significant strengthening the hours before landfall it may be some light shear from that upper level trof axis, but it’s not much and the storm may be to wound up to be affected much by 5-10kts of wind shear E5072948-072E-422C-AFA0-1058A48EA8B2.png
 
If you look at the track the storm has taken since 4 am today, the NHC has had to adjust the trajectory every update with less north turn as the storm approaches landfall to continue with the idea of a western La , east tex landfall. It could still happen, but that would mean that they can more accurately predict the position at 36 hrs than they can at 12 hrs? I think Pea ridge and Accu 35 have as much credibility at this point as the models.
 
Rain Cold said:
At least it's slowly coming around on the pressure. What a silly model.
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I will hold my opinion until Friday. I found this link to Hurricane Michael predictions 2 days before landfall. Nam was bombing out and HWRF was down in the 930s. Expectation was cat 2-3.....

Let's see what happens......

www.severe-weather.eu

Strong hurricane Michael will cross the Gulf of Mexico and is expected to make landfall in Florida this week

The Gulf of Mexico will soon become active as new Tropical storm Michael has developed in the western Caribbean, east of the Yucatan peninsula, Mexico. …
www.severe-weather.eu www.severe-weather.eu
 
Henry2326 said:
I will hold my opinion until Friday. I found this link to Hurricane Michael predictions 2 days before landfall. Nam was bombing out and HWRF was down in the 930s. Expectation was cat 2-3.....

Let's see what happens......

www.severe-weather.eu

Strong hurricane Michael will cross the Gulf of Mexico and is expected to make landfall in Florida this week

The Gulf of Mexico will soon become active as new Tropical storm Michael has developed in the western Caribbean, east of the Yucatan peninsula, Mexico. …
www.severe-weather.eu www.severe-weather.eu
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Good deal. I'm going to predict that there's about a 95% chance that a 900 mb low pressure system will not impact the Gulf coast within the next 2 days.
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
So you are saying with confidence that Laura will not rival Camille ?
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Yeah, pretty confident. Nam is still a tad out to lunch. I'm still thinking Cat 4. Probably low end Cat 3 to low end Cat 4 is the most likely range.
 
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