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Tropical Major Hurricane Laura

Looking at the Infrared satellite Laura has a ton of dry air in front of it. Wouldn't surprise me after a period of strengthening if it levels off up until the coast.

Still leaning landfall very close to Galveston.
 
Pressure down to 983.9 mb.
386
URNT15 KWBC 252255
NOAA2 2013A LAURA HDOB 12 20200825
224530 2459N 08854W 7498 02441 9912 +152 //// 044061 067 051 033 01
224600 2458N 08852W 7522 02409 9896 +164 +154 034073 075 056 021 03
224630 2457N 08850W 7525 02398 9889 +167 +146 035061 074 056 019 00
224700 2456N 08848W 7509 02414 9881 +163 //// 041042 045 047 012 01
224730 2455N 08847W 7528 02385 9873 +165 //// 043037 040 038 010 01
224800 2454N 08845W 7507 02405 9866 +170 //// 052036 037 034 007 01
224830 2453N 08843W 7518 02390 9858 +176 +164 055033 035 033 005 03
224900 2452N 08841W 7502 02402 9855 +178 +145 054030 030 031 004 00
224930 2450N 08840W 7512 02390 9853 +179 +144 053026 028 029 005 00
225000 2449N 08838W 7512 02388 9844 +186 +133 061022 023 027 004 00
225030 2448N 08837W 7513 02383 9839 +187 +139 060017 019 026 004 00
225100 2446N 08835W 7511 02385 9839 +185 +141 066011 013 022 005 00
225130 2445N 08834W 7511 02385 9844 +179 +144 080007 008 021 004 00
225200 2443N 08832W 7511 02384 9845 +176 +148 112005 006 022 004 00
225230 2442N 08830W 7514 02381 9845 +174 +160 182007 008 020 005 00
225300 2441N 08829W 7509 02389 9845 +179 +149 205012 013 020 005 00
225330 2439N 08827W 7513 02385 9847 +178 +143 218013 014 021 005 00
225400 2438N 08826W 7513 02387 9850 +178 +143 217017 019 024 005 00
225430 2436N 08824W 7512 02391 9851 +180 +143 221022 023 028 005 00
225500 2435N 08823W 7512 02396 9858 +177 +148 228026 030 033 006 00
Click to expand...
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Yikes. The super ensemble mean knows where the state borders are. Directly over Tennessee line before sagging a little south into Ashe County, NC. Finally some exciting weather to track for severe enthusiasts. View attachment 47226
Click to expand...
NC is barely in the cone now! Huge shift N on the inland track
 
New Vortex Data Message has the pressure at 984 mb.
145
URNT12 KWBC 252316
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL132020
A. 25/22:51:49Z
B. 24.74 deg N 088.55 deg W
C. NA
D. 984 mb
E. 273 deg 9 kt
F. NA
G. NA
H. 56 kt
I. 309 deg 22 nm 22:46:14Z
J. 031 deg 76 kt
K. 310 deg 22 nm 22:46:17Z
L. 72 kt
M. 134 deg 61 nm 23:07:05Z
N. 221 deg 58 kt
O. 134 deg 54 nm 23:05:16Z
P. 15 C / 2442 m
Q. 19 C / 2453 m
R. 14 C / NA
S. 12345 / NA
T. 0.01 / 2 nm
U. NOAA2 2013A LAURA OB 05
MAX FL WIND 76 KT 310 / 22 NM 22:46:17Z
Click to expand...
Expect the NHC to lower the pressure around 984 mb in the next advisory.
 
lexxnchloe said:
Is Camile like flooding possible?
Click to expand...

Wow...
giphy.gif



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LF as a major hurricane is inevitable. I would pick western-central Louisiana less populated. A lot of swamp land. This storm will definitely reshape Louisiana coastline.


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Looking at the models the Euro which is as far as I know the strongest model(I don't take the NAM seriously) gets into the 930s at landfall has a pressure around 952 mb at 7am tomorrow conversely the HWRF which is more in line with the other models 966 mb both go down about 15 mb after that til landfall

Be interesting to see where the pressure actually stands
 
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