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Tropical Major Hurricane Laura

00z Icon starts out at 993 for midnight......while it's already at 978...It ends up at 971.
So let's take the 15 off and it would be 956.
No change in placement.

ScreenshotCapture_2020_08_25_22_57_32_334.jpg
 
061
URNT15 KWBC 260255
NOAA2 2013A LAURA HDOB 36 20200826
024530 2502N 08952W 7524 02419 9929 +146 //// 351054 056 052 013 01
024600 2502N 08950W 7500 02436 9911 +153 //// 356053 055 056 014 01
024630 2502N 08948W 7521 02405 9901 +155 //// 001051 051 053 012 01
024700 2502N 08946W 7514 02406 9891 +158 //// 357051 052 050 016 01
024730 2502N 08944W 7529 02382 9878 +160 //// 354049 051 052 014 01
024800 2502N 08941W 7514 02389 9865 +162 //// 345045 046 053 009 01
024830 2502N 08939W 7517 02378 9844 +177 +164 339034 039 051 007 00
024900 2503N 08937W 7513 02377 9830 +189 +150 337026 028 047 006 00
024930 2503N 08934W 7524 02361 9825 +191 +147 325018 020 044 006 00
025000 2503N 08932W 7514 02367 9818 +192 +149 322014 016 038 005 00
025030 2503N 08930W 7521 02357 9818 +191 +146 315008 010 033 008 00
025100 2503N 08927W 7517 02357 9813 +194 +129 324005 006 032 009 00
025130 2503N 08925W 7510 02368 9810 +197 +124 286005 006 030 007 00
025200 2503N 08923W 7525 02347 9808 +195 +129 260010 010 028 007 00
025230 2503N 08921W 7518 02354 9810 +189 +145 228015 018 026 006 00
025300 2503N 08918W 7513 02360 9814 +187 +148 211022 024 031 005 00
025330 2503N 08916W 7514 02361 9817 +184 +157 205027 028 034 005 00
025400 2503N 08914W 7514 02364 9825 +179 +153 197030 033 037 004 00
025430 2503N 08911W 7518 02362 9832 +174 +156 191035 038 037 005 00
025500 2503N 08909W 7513 02374 9842 +169 +160 194043 044 038 006 00
Click to expand...
Pressure still at 980.8 mb.
 
Brent said:
120 mph before landfall

...LAURA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 89.5W
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM SE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES

View attachment 47311
Click to expand...

If it keeps getting stronger it might be more than 120 mph. The actual pressure is lower now than what the models show.
 
77 kt unflagged SFMR found.
685
URNT15 KWBC 260305
NOAA2 2013A LAURA HDOB 37 20200826
025530 2503N 08907W 7526 02368 9850 +169 +164 194044 045 040 008 00
025600 2503N 08904W 7510 02394 9856 +168 //// 193045 046 043 008 01
025630 2503N 08902W 7523 02385 9865 +168 //// 196051 055 051 010 01
025700 2503N 08900W 7526 02392 9879 +164 //// 198060 062 077 013 01
025730 2503N 08857W 7493 02441 9895 +157 //// 191073 079 074 029 01
025800 2503N 08855W 7507 02425 9912 +152 //// 185074 079 064 051 01
025830 2503N 08853W 7498 02454 9936 +143 //// 189076 077 063 024 01
025900 2503N 08851W 7465 02499 9939 +144 //// 185081 082 056 023 01
025930 2503N 08848W 7498 02472 9957 +141 //// 181079 081 055 012 01
030000 2503N 08846W 7514 02462 9965 +147 +135 181076 077 053 008 00
030030 2503N 08844W 7515 02466 9976 +143 +126 188075 076 054 007 00
030100 2503N 08842W 7508 02484 9980 +148 +120 186071 073 053 006 00
030130 2503N 08840W 7512 02487 9983 +153 +113 182068 070 053 004 00
030200 2503N 08838W 7525 02477 9997 +148 +113 181065 067 053 004 00
030230 2503N 08835W 7524 02485 0000 +146 +143 175062 063 051 007 00
030300 2503N 08833W 7517 02496 0002 +149 +142 175057 060 049 008 00
030330 2503N 08831W 7530 02483 0002 +151 +149 185058 063 051 017 00
030400 2503N 08829W 7509 02507 0004 +150 +149 186060 062 050 026 00
030430 2503N 08827W 7514 02506 0010 +145 //// 184061 063 055 022 01
030500 2503N 08825W 7514 02512 0009 +151 //// 172062 064 049 038 01
Click to expand...
 
I remember both Ike and Rita. Since I live 150 miles from the TX state line, I wasn't impacted very directly from either one, beside brief power outages and some tree branches downed. I remember Rita was more intense than Ike for MBY.
 
Will Rossman said:
I remember both Ike and Rita. Since I live 150 miles from the TX state line, I wasn't impacted very directly from either one, beside brief power outages and some tree branches downed. I remember Rita was more intense than Ike for MBY.
Click to expand...
What is the worst hurricane you have experienced ?
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
What is the worst hurricane you have experienced ?
Click to expand...
Hurricane Gustav in 2008. That landed as a upper end Cat 2. We were on the eastern side, so we got all the wind and rain. I also got to experience going through the convective banding of the eyewall (but not the eye itself). I watched as several trees in my neighborhood came crashing down. At one point I could lean into the wind comfortably during gusts (I was just a teenager, lol). No power for 5 days, and no generator. I got to experience the true misery of Deep South summer without the blessing of A/C.
 
gfs seems to halt strengthening in the last hours till landfall. At 18 hours its 957 and at 24 hours its only 955 so only a 2MB drop as it approaches.
 
Will Rossman said:
I remember both Ike and Rita. Since I live 150 miles from the TX state line, I wasn't impacted very directly from either one, beside brief power outages and some tree branches downed. I remember Rita was more intense than Ike for MBY.
Click to expand...
I remember Rita and I live in NE TX. Lots of trees in the piney woods to fall down. Power outtages were pretty rough, kinda expecting similar impacts this time around too.
 
Laura will probably be on the verge of major hurricane status by tomorrow morning. Just from past experiences, it seems some hurricanes make the jump in two steps. One from Cat 1 to Cat 2-3 and then levels out and then another step from Cat 2-3 to Cat 4-5. Really doesn’t bode well for LA and Texas to have this possibly coming in during its possible second strengthening cycle and at the convective max as well.

The question will be does it have enough time and will the shear be enough to drive dry continental air into the core before landfall?
 
Arcc said:
Laura will probably be on the verge of major hurricane status by tomorrow morning. Just from past experiences, it seems some hurricanes make the jump in two steps. One from Cat 1 to Cat 2-3 and then levels out and then another step from Cat 2-3 to Cat 4-5. Really doesn’t bode well for LA and Texas to have this possibly coming in during its possible second strengthening cycle and at the convective max as well.

The question will be does it have enough time and will the shear be enough to drive dry continental air into the core before landfall?
Click to expand...

Also throw in EWRC, not likely but if it tries to start one before landfall that will disrupt Laura and make it more vulnerable to any shear and dry air.
 
snowlover91 said:
Also throw in EWRC, not likely but if it tries to start one before landfall that will disrupt Laura and make it more vulnerable to any shear and dry air.
Click to expand...

Definitely. If landfall was forecasted for Mid-day Thursday I would think it much more likely. I think time is against that here unless it gets into one of those perpetual ERC cycles where the eye never fully closes off or it goes nuts tonight which could happen.
 
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