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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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Eye over Virgin Gorda. Took direct hit. Watching from TJUA PR.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Recon finding lower pressure this pass. I think we are going to run for a record if it continues. And where are all the ERCs? Are they happening differently or am I just missing them?
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It's acting strange. I watched radar last night and one started and just wrapped and absorbed into the inner eyewall in a few hours.
 
Storm5 said:
Big SW shift on the 12z GEFS

06z

12z
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Much tighter cluster, too. If you go up the middle, looks like it misses FL and hits between Myrtle Beach and NC.
 
Storm5 said:
To show the big west shift here is the the 06z GEFS and 12z
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Ridge is stronger over the top and building SE, that traps it and forces wear/NW movement
 
GaWx said:
^ I may be remembering incorrectly, but didn't Mike V. earlier in August say that he thought early Sept would be quiet due to MJO and/or the lack of a CCKW?
Like Brent, I'm thinking recurve likely east of the CONUS as of now.
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Larry, has Sav ever had a direct hit from a major?? I seem to remember a slide by from a 3, but I don't recall a 4 or 5 even getting close. It would be bad news with all the increase in pop, and building all along there. T
 
Savannah or Charleston would be under water. Anywhere is better than those 2 spots.
 
dsaur said:
Larry, has Sav ever had a direct hit from a major?? I seem to remember a slide by from a 3, but I don't recall a 4 or 5 even getting close. It would be bad news with all the increase in pop, and building all along there. T
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The last major Ga hits ones were during the 1890s

1898 was GA/FL border and a 4! It was terrible for especially the lower GA coast including Brunswick though the entire GA coast had major effects from surge among other things.
 
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ForsythSnow said:
Yep, you can ask Larry about Matthew last year. This would be way worse. Hoping it doesn't hit there for everyone in Savannah and Brunswick's sake. Oh, and Don't forget Jacksonville.
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Agreed. Major league hoping it doesn't come back into the GA coast from the open water as that would be worse than Matthew unless it isn't too strong a storm then.
 
UKX2 tropical model. IS that related to the UKMET parameters? I'd look it uo, but a bit busy right now.. It has it staying as a Cat 5 through 132 hours! I don't have the track data though.
 
^^ That is less land interaction/ further North than 00z Euro at that time.
 
Shawn said:
UKX2 tropical model. IS that related to the UKMET parameters? I'd look it uo, but a bit busy right now.. It has it staying as a Cat 5 through 132 hours! I don't have the track data though.
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Must be keeping it in the open waters before bringing it into the Carolinas??
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
Must be keeping it in the open waters before bringing it into the Carolinas??
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Or maybe it's OTS. Why I was wondering, becasue from what I understood... the UKMET was still on the southern most side of guidance with much more land interaction... so maybe those two models aren't related.
 
Shawn said:
Or maybe it's OTS. Why I was wondering, becasue from what I understood... the UKMET was still on the southern most side of guidance with much more land interaction... so maybe those two models aren't related.
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UKMET takes Irma into Southern SC, NAVEGM up the spine of Florida. I think we are seeing a consensus.
 
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