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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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Yes, there will be tropical force winds inland, maybe even some weak hurricane force winds at times. The hurricane force winds will be confined around the core of Irma and on the right side of the path.

Rainfall totals for inland area's, I'd say 2-6", some area's will get more, some less. Depending on where the heavier bands will set up. Tornadoes are possible, but we won't know where exactly a tornado will form.

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Folks,

I'm really working today and regrettably, no time to study. I did look at the GFS for this area and am seeing top winds at 29 MPH. Is that realistic?
Will study and not be a dolt once I can get a contract done and out ...
In the meantime, thanks for any input on my question!
Best,
Phil
 
pcbjr said:
Folks,

I'm really working today and regrettably, no time to study. I did look at the GFS for this area and am seeing top winds at 29 MPH. Is that realistic?
Will study and not be a dolt once I can get a contract done and out ...
In the meantime, thanks for any input on my question!
Best,
Phil
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You work????

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pcbjr said:
Folks,

I'm really working today and regrettably, no time to study. I did look at the GFS for this area and am seeing top winds at 29 MPH. Is that realistic?
Will study and not be a dolt once I can get a contract done and out ...
In the meantime, thanks for any input on my question!
Best,
Phil
Click to expand...
Weather models downplay tropical winds I think for inland areas.
 
When will the carolinas feel and see the impacts if she is near florida in the early am on Monday? I work at a hospital inland and just trying to have a gameplan in regards to how many days I get stuck there. We know will be getting pts. .from sister hospital towards coast. Also thank you all for great insight and thoughts to help common folks such as myself understand.
 
pcbjr said:
Folks,

I'm really working today and regrettably, no time to study. I did look at the GFS for this area and am seeing top winds at 29 MPH. Is that realistic?
Will study and not be a dolt once I can get a contract done and out ...
In the meantime, thanks for any input on my question!
Best,
Phil
Click to expand...
I'd be surprised if you get off that light if it comes up the middle.
 
dsaur said:
No doubt! I can take some gusts, it's all the tornadoes that scare me. Just hope we end up on the west side. At least we might get some needed rain...all at once, lol. Tony
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My daughter lives in Macon. I keep trying to tell her and she just says " I live on the fourth floor, it won't bother me." She thinks it's only going to rain. Kids, smh
 
dsaur said:
I'd be surprised if you get off that light if it comes up the middle.
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Haven't had/don't have time to look (as soon as 50 pages come off the printer it's back to the day job), but seems like nothing is showing up the middle anymore (???)
 
southwest shift on the EPS

00z

12z
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Lovemesomesnow said:
My daughter lives in Macon. I keep trying to tell her and she just says " I live on the fourth floor, it won't bother me." She thinks it's only going to rain. Kids, smh
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I know, right...I was out getting some stuff, and those that I talked to had no idea what might be coming to their house.
 
accu35 said:
Wow!! That right there shows you, that this has plenty of time to change.
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If Of course it does . Those western eps members take Irma right over Cuba thus allowing for the storm to weaken and move further west by missing the weakness. Given its current path that seems really unlikely

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Storm5 said:
If Of course it does . Those western eps members take Irma right over Cuba thus allowing for the storm to weaken and move further west by missing the weakness. Given its current path that seems really unlikely

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Agreed.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
So the most likely scenario as of right now is for Irma to miss FL to the east and then hit GA or SC ?
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Looks like right now most the models have it hitting SE Florida and then up to Savannah or Charleston. Of course, it's been changing every day.
 
I need to read up more into the friction by land and the effects that it can have on movement of TS's. I have heard it before but never really looked into it... Not the weakening part but the adjustments to path possibly...i believe it can in some storms cause them to bend back to the left or NW for some reason


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Shawn said:
I'm getting the chainsaw ready. I've heard about Hugo, and I'm not being caught off guard.
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I lived in Gastonia at the time, it was unreal! Trees down everywhere, no power for ten days! The devastation from 80-90mph winds on trees , is amaZing !!
 
Lovemesomesnow said:
My daughter lives in Macon. I keep trying to tell her and she just says " I live on the fourth floor, it won't bother me." She thinks it's only going to rain. Kids, smh
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If the whole building gets flattened, she will be on the first floor! I'd watch one more day , if nothing changes, I'd leave Macon, if it was me!
 
Storm5 said:
Post landfall track almost identicalt to the gfs
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That would be apocalyptic around here, really!
 
Xtreme Weather said:
I need to read up more into the friction by land and the effects that it can have on movement of TS's. I have heard it before but never really looked into it... Not the weakening part but the adjustments to path possibly...i believe it can in some storms cause them to bend back to the left or NW for some reason


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If you look at some of the EPS and GEFS members they do bend back to the west after about 36 hours. Not sure the cause is exactly what your talking about
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JB just put on FB, he expects Irma to get to 900 MB on Friday or Saturday !
 
911.3 MB on N eyewall on this pass, was lowest I saw on dropsond reading
 
Sorry if it's been explained, but why does a stronger storm feel the tug north more than a weaker one? I would think the stronger it is, the harder it would be to get it pulled
 
Snow_chaser said:
Sorry if it's been explained, but why does a stronger storm feel the tug north more than a weaker one? I would think the stronger it is, the harder it would be to get it pulled
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It's like two big grizzly bears wanting to mate - nothing is going to stop them ... whereas if one is (how should I put this?) - a whimp, there's going to be some dancing around before the love starts ...
 
3. The threat of direct hurricane impacts in Florida over the
weekend and early next week has increased. Hurricane watches could
be issued for portions of the Florida Keys and the Florida peninsula
on Thursday.

The 12Z guidance has generally shifted slightly
westward, closer to the previous NHC forecast. As a result, little
overall change was made to the 4-5 day track forecast.
 
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