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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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The plan right now is to disable the guest view this Friday at 12 noon . If your a guest be sure to register so that you don't miss the latest on Irma this weekend
 
New 0z tropical model spaghetti plot
31d817013c7e97c7c63bfe0e5af8eb28.jpg


Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
 
Truthfully the worst case scenario to me would be if it does skirt between Cuba and Keys make the Northern Jog on the West coast of Florida, The Gulf temps in the eastern Gulf are high compared to other regions and as long as it didn't have direct landfall the West Coast of Florida it maybe wouldn't lose much strength sorta like Matthew did but just on West coast of Florida and exposing that coastline to the Strong NE side before slamming into the Panhandle or Alabama coastline still pretty strong and will make it into mainland for a good ways at a pretty significant stretch but this is just thought forecasting on my opinions.
 
malak05 said:
Truthfully the worst case scenario to me would be if it does skirt between Cuba and Keys make the Northern Jog on the West coast of Florida, The Gulf temps in the eastern Gulf are high compared to other regions and as long as it didn't have direct landfall the West Coast of Florida it maybe wouldn't lose much strength sorta like Matthew did but just on West coast of Florida and exposing that coastline to the Strong NE side before slamming into the Panhandle or Alabama coastline still pretty strong and will make it into mainland for a good ways at a pretty significant stretch but this is just thought forecasting on my opinions.
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That is one hell of a sentence ... but the substance makes sense ...
 
pcbjr said:
Not gonna start live reports and PBB - but either the media has totally freaked folks or folks are being very smart - either way - slap dab here in the north most central part of FL, Publix is bare, lines are at the gas stations into the roads, and a D cell battery is worth more than a silver dollar ...
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Hype machine in full gear! But this time it could be a good thing. This is a little long and if it's in the wrong place I apologize, slap me and delete it, but I thought there might be some folks reading that could benefit especially if they are new residents of cane country.
Lived in Fl. and SC a couple miles off the ocean for 25 years and some very experienced folks taught me a lesson during Hugo. Every Spring we stocked our non perishables, enough for 2 weeks. Mainly water, soup, canned beer, flour, condensed milk, dried grains and legumes(ie. oats, rice, beans) Be amazed how long you can live on water and soup. After the season we'd commit a cardinal sin and make a low country boil or gumbo out of all those cans of soup, grains and water and have an October Oyster roast. Those supplies were cheap. You don't need Chunky or gourmet soup good ol generic chicken and noodle, cream of mushroom, veggie.. 2 weeks would cost us on average 200 bucks for 4 people. If we weren't evacuating we didn't need gas at the last minute. Kept 20 gallons around when we could finally afford a generator and rotated those cans through the summer to the car or the lawn mower every 30 days.
I betcha the Publix was short on eggs, milk and bread first off. Why are you going to buy stuff that rots?
My point is it's easy to be prepared and not cost an arm and a leg and not waste anything. The indigenous coastal folks of the sea shore and islands did for thousands of years .
Disclaimer: If you are ordered to leave, do so. It is not in yours or anyone elses best interest to be foolishly brave period.
 
malak05 said:
Truthfully the worst case scenario to me would be if it does skirt between Cuba and Keys make the Northern Jog on the West coast of Florida, The Gulf temps in the eastern Gulf are high compared to other regions and as long as it didn't have direct landfall the West Coast of Florida it maybe wouldn't lose much strength sorta like Matthew did but just on West coast of Florida and exposing that coastline to the Strong NE side before slamming into the Panhandle or Alabama coastline still pretty strong and will make it into mainland for a good ways at a pretty significant stretch but this is just thought forecasting on my opinions.
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Another Camille like storm will come along some day.
 
GaWx said:
1. I think 1915 was the last time 2 cat 4's hit the US.

2. She seems to be moving slightly south of the projected NHC path and may be headed for a direct strike on PR. Do others agree? I wonder if her extreme strength is causing this (I recall clearly Gilbert cooling forecasters with it continuing more westbound than projected) and do still wonder if she'll ultimately go much further west than anticipated and threaten the Gulf.
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It seems to be moving right on track with the NHC's forecast track so far.
 
pcbjr said:
Nor can I ... just speaking as one lone solitary citizen ...
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Take a mini vacay to Tennessee. I would not know where else to recommend that you go. This s unreal. I have friends that are travel nurses in St. Thomas. Their contract would not let them leave. The airport is now closed and they are preparing for 200 mph winds. Mind boggling.
 
Lovemesomesnow said:
Take a mini vacay to Tennessee. I would not know where else to recommend that you go. This s unreal. I have friends that are travel nurses in St. Thomas. Their contract would not let them leave. The airport is now closed and they are preparing for 200 mph winds. Mind boggling.
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Bless them. Angels on Earth.
 
those tropical models are ran with the 18z gfs conditions. No doubt they are east. Gfs loves to overplay killing off ridges and euro loves to over amplify them. So split the middle and you have a track up the spine of FL imho.
 
deltadog03 said:
those tropical models are ran with the 18z gfs conditions. No doubt they are east. Gfs loves to overplay killing off ridges and euro loves to over amplify them. So split the middle and you have a track up the spine of FL imho.
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Is it wrong to hope the models really trend west to get egg on Spann's face?
 
From the 11pm...." In 4 to 5 days, a small trough diving southward over
the east-central U.S. is expected to weaken the western portion of
the ridge, causing Irma to turn poleward."
If that's all they got I have about 10% confidence in it moving north and 90% confidence in the vagueness of the forecast at that range.
 
From the forecast discussion NHC is still leaning on the Euro

Latest center fixes from satellite imagery and the aircraft
indicate that Irma is now moving west-northwestward, or 285/13 kt.
A strong ridge extending southwestward from the central Atlantic is
expected to steer Irma west-northwestward during the next couple of
days. A large mid-latitude trough over the eastern United States is
forecast to lift northeastward, allowing the ridge to build westward
and keep Irma on a westward to west-northwestward heading through
Friday. In 4 to 5 days, a small trough diving southward over
the east-central U.S. is expected to weaken the western portion of
the ridge, causing Irma to turn poleward. Some of the dynamical
models have shifted northward a bit from the previous cycle, with
the normally reliable GFS looking like a northeast outlier. The
official track forecast leans toward the ECMWF solution. Users are
reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, especially at the
longer ranges, since the average NHC track errors are about 175 and
225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/060236.shtml
 
Well at work again, ill be reading but not texting until lunch
 
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